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Thursday Storm Observation Thread 1/12


dryslot

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1-3"...perhaps they can get the higher end of that if we can get that heavier precip in CT and LI sound into here intact. I don't like the way the omega is kind of weak on the leading edge of this stuff.

It gets better...those echoes over LI mean business.

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It gets better...those echoes over LI mean business.

All of eggs are in that basket for snow here...if that big band of heavy precip doesn't produce much here, then that's probably it for snow as we only have about 3 hours left to snow...unless the Euro/GFS combo is more correct, then we have maybe 4-5 hours to snow...but I'm hedging warmer.

I wish the pressure gradient would start tightening more rapidly soon...I'd like to wetbulb and then start the process of feeding the lower dewpoints from the northeast into the CAD engine...but not sure if its going to happen too late.

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nao just went negative.....

-.5 i believe

will are you very concerned for a bad icing situ to develop for N oRH county for the mid am (8-10 am timeframe)

i mean the am commute could see tons of accidents in the rte 2 corridor from from near 495 area west

I don't think the icing is going to be horrendous...but it doesn't take much to get a lot of accidents. But I don't see a sneak attack of like 3/8th to a half inch of ice out of this for the hills there...I don't think the CAD will be quite efficient enough in supplying fresh dry air from the northeast to offset latent heat release...but its certainly something worth watching. I think it won't take that long to get to the "death obs" of 33F and rain. We may try to hold it off for a few hours if the PG tightens up enough to turn the wind to left of 060 for a time.

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