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Thursday Storm Observation Thread 1/12


dryslot

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Hopefully there will be a bit of left over slush by the time i get up to south woodstock later this morning. At least through the internet and encyclopedia's I can still see what snow looks like.

You really need to head out towards the Eastford side of Woodstock I think. On my way to work in Brooklyn, the the snow was totally gone right around Ruckies.

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I've got latitude but not much elevation at my house. It went to pl as soon as the precip got light. Radar looks empty over Franklin Co. atm - we'll see what happens with that last batch of heavy echoes to the south.

Chris--the next heavier stuff is just moving into franklin county now, so things should improve. How are your temps down there? We're at 30.0/29.

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This has to be one of the biggest fails in short term forecasting for the NAM/SREF at least here in a winter wx event....what a horrible forecast they had. cannot believe it is still all snow here after 13z. Even the Euro was too fast with the flip, but it was by far best the model in this for my own forecasting area.

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This has to be one of the biggest fails in short term forecasting for the NAM/SREF at least here in a winter wx event....what a horrible forecast they had. cannot believe it is still all snow here after 13z. Even the Euro was too fast with the flip, but it was by far best the model in this for my own forecasting area.

Is it any worse a fail than last months that failed in the other direction?

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It's fooking ripping here..

Will, how long will snow hold here? Will you change before me?

I'd probably say close to 2" here

Looks like mother natures off the diet and shaking the old salt shaker on new England once

again

Yahoooo

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This has to be one of the biggest fails in short term forecasting for the NAM/SREF at least here in a winter wx event....what a horrible forecast they had. cannot believe it is still all snow here after 13z. Even the Euro was too fast with the flip, but it was by far best the model in this for my own forecasting area.

any reports from Ray?, damn those echos keep washing out, Hunchback?

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For those who like to bash the Euro when they get a chance...they will never mention this event...completely schooled other guidance in holding the cold in at the mid-levels.

But regardless...nice event. Its refreshing to get one that overperforms a bit here...hopefully it goes well up north. I can only think it bodes well for yall up there if I am still 100% snow well after 13z.

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This has to be one of the biggest fails in short term forecasting for the NAM/SREF at least here in a winter wx event....what a horrible forecast they had. cannot believe it is still all snow here after 13z. Even the Euro was too fast with the flip, but it was by far best the model in this for my own forecasting area.

LOL, remember we said the euro seemed to argue for 2.5 to 3"? Even then it was too fast. I wonder what the 800 temps were. Usually the change over line is 25-50 miles south of those 850-700 thicknesses. Nice to go + for once.

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For those who like to bash the Euro when they get a chance...they will never mention this event...completely schooled other guidance in holding the cold in at the mid-levels.

But regardless...nice event. Its refreshing to get one that overperforms a bit here...hopefully it goes well up north. I can only think it bodes well for yall up there if I am still 100% snow well after 13z.

And there were quite a few that doubted it, It schooled the other guidance on being colder, Eric and I had mentioned that it would bode well up here after seeing all you guys obs down there

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LOL, remember we said the euro seemed to argue for 2.5 to 3"? Even then it was too fast. I wonder what the 800 temps were. Usually the change over line is 25-50 miles south of those 850-700 thicknesses. Nice to go + for once.

Seems like high pressure north of Vim Toot always produces....kudos to the Euro for sticking to its guns and embarrassing the NAM/SREFs....GFS wasn't bad either but Euro def takes the cake when looking at the mid-levels in this one.

I'm sitting here at 100% snow right now which is not something I expected this late in the game.

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And there were quite a few that doubted it, It schooled the other guidance on being colder, Eric and I had mentioned that it would bode well up here after seeing all you guys obs down there

I personally thought it might be too cool yesterday morning, but the GFS at 12z still stayed the course, which made us wonder if the NAM/SREF were out to lunch. Then the 12z euro run came in similar so that's some good agreement there...when even the GFS wasn't too far off from the euro. Tough to weigh a forecast on one model and ignore other guidance so close to the event, but you can skew it one way which is what you had to do. The NAM and SREF just looked weird.

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any reports from Ray?, damn those echos keep washing out, Hunchback?

I'm at work in Leominster

No delay. Roads were horrible. Worst commute in a long time. 90 minutes on the road. Numerous accidents. Busses could not get up our school driveway.

Most kids actually are here.

Not sure of the totals at home. Must be 2.5" or so here, with more snow falling

Sucky drive, good snow!!!

Will, what happened wrt changeover? CAD win?

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Seems like high pressure north of Vim Toot always produces....kudos to the Euro for sticking to its guns and embarrassing the NAM/SREFs....GFS wasn't bad either but Euro def takes the cake when looking at the mid-levels in this one.

I'm sitting here at 100% snow right now which is not something I expected this late in the game.

Yeah that's the key ingredient we missed in every event. Big high, weenies to the sky.

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