OSUmetstud Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Yeah, you can see that my memory was pretty poor, I quickly realized I was wrong once I saw the setup. In my defense, that was a long time ago. I was editing my last post when you posted this. yeah no problem...looking back at classic storms is a good thing lol. The storm tomorrow would have been better if we didn't have the new england low still away the low level baroclinicity. The upper level low is so strong that we get moderate to heavy snow tomorrow morning as a result of mid-level frontogenesis and PVA...but we actually have low-level cold advection which is a net negative for vertical motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 yeah no problem...looking back at classic storms is a good thing lol. The storm tomorrow would have been better if we didn't have the new england low still away the low level baroclinicity. The upper level low is so strong that we get moderate to heavy snow tomorrow morning as a result of mid-level frontogenesis and PVA...but we actually have low-level cold advection which is a net negative for vertical motion. It is quite the bizarre storm system. The fact that the initial surface low along the coast doesnt win out and explode over New England is a testament to the strength of the upper level dynamics hanging back over the lakes. And then its a trade off, we are swamped with deep moisture, but low level forcing is gone and the system is stacked up pretty good. Very Unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 ALL SNOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Yeah the NAM really goes to town...nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I still have quite high hopes for this event, its just a strange gut feeling. Between a rapidly deepening surface low directly over WNY, strong upper level support, warmer than normal lakes, and ample synoptic moisture....something has got to give. It almost reminds me of the great 99 snowstorm that pummeled Rochester. I need to dig up the maps from that storm system. Probably the greatest overachiever of my lifetime. I've got a good feeling about the ROC in this one. I had mentioned that this had shades of March 99 in the C-PA thread the other night. This event certainly won't be developing in the manner that one did, but the end result is going to be pretty similar in having a really deep surface low in upstate NY and a synoptic swath coming up out of western PA. The 500mb low looks like it will be even more impressive with this system. I'm excited to watch this event evolve. I remember March 99 starting as a big rainstorm that turned to snow and dumped an inch or two before I had went to bed. I was then woke up around 2am to thunder/lightning and ridiculous winds. Lost power and everything..It was a legit whiteout until about mid morning. We saw about 4-6 inches and the Laurel highlands had places over a foot. Couldn't even imagine what it looked like in western NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Yeah the NAM really goes to town...nice If that could come true we'd prob see a period of moderate to heavy snow 1/2" to 1" an hr for several hours and with lake enhancement tomorrow would be an awesome day. Prob 4-8" verbatim if it came true. Now I hope the GFS is in line with the NAM and this isn't just a temporary hiccup in the NAM and it'll be back to ART for all the good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Picked up 1 1/2" of mostly sleet, never really turned to rain ...WWA issued for southern herkimer county SOUTHERN HERKIMER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS... MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE 341 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND END FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND LOCAL VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE. * WINDS...WEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...LOCALLY BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN HEAVIER SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I had mentioned that this had shades of March 99 in the C-PA thread the other night. This event certainly won't be developing in the manner that one did, but the end result is going to be pretty similar in having a really deep surface low in upstate NY and a synoptic swath coming up out of western PA. The 500mb low looks like it will be even more impressive with this system. I'm excited to watch this event evolve. I remember March 99 starting as a big rainstorm that turned to snow and dumped an inch or two before I had went to bed. I was then woke up around 2am to thunder/lightning and ridiculous winds. Lost power and everything..It was a legit whiteout until about mid morning. We saw about 4-6 inches and the Laurel highlands had places over a foot. Couldn't even imagine what it looked like in western NY. kinda has that look to what you normally see in SNE snowstorms Miller B. Precip explodes to the south with a firehose look and then the 700mb low develops underneath. Obviously, the lack of atlantic moisture some of the low-level baroclinicity and waa robbed from the SNE snowstorm this morning will cause it to not be quite so intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 18z GFS right in line with the 18z NAM... Looks like a solid 4-6" for BUF and 5-8" in ROC,SYR, and ART. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F12%2F2012+18UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p24&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=027&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 KALB A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BARRELINGNE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. THE STRONG DYNAMICAL QG LIFT GENERATED BY THE DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A BAND OF MOD-HVY SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BTWN 11Z /6 AM/ TO 17Z /NOONTIME/ ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WE KEPT THE POPS AT CATEGORICAL VALUES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WE ALSO ENDED THE MIXED PCPN AND WENT TO A RAIN TO SNOW PTYPE. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE CRASHING WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A 100+ KT H500 JET STREAK WILL BE MOVING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS NOONTIME. WITH THE STEEPENING LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE...A LINE OR TWO OF SNOW SQUALLS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WE ARE EXPECTING SOME LAKE MOISTURE TO BE TAPPED AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OFF THE WRN DACKS. WE KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW FOR NRN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES. WE ALSO BELIEVE SOME THE SQUALLS COULD PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN SRN HERKIMER COUNTY. WE START A NEW ADVISORY THERE AT 6 AM. IT IS LIKELY SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED WITH ANY SQUALLS FOR NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND BLOWING SNOW. A QUICK INCH OR TWO COULD FALL IN SOME SPOTS WE CAN/T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS TOTHE SYSTEM. WE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE GRIDS JUST. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE LATE MORNING...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS EARLY ON IN THE M30S TO L40S. WE WILL ALSO MONITOR FOR A FLASHFREEZE POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL TRANSITIONS TO LAKE EFFECTWITH A W/NW TRAJECTORY...AS A SECONDARY COLD OR ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CONTINUES. WE KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES UP TO 00Z FOR THE SRN DACKS AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE INVERSION DOES LOWER QUICKLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. H850 TEMPS TUMBLE TO -10C TO -15C. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES STACKED OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE /970 HPA CNTRL PRESSURE/. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT FOR SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK...AND L20S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Final call...BUF 4-8" and ROC 4-8" should be an interesting battle about who wins out...ROC gets slightly better synoptic dynamics but BUF gets some lake-enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Final call...BUF 4-8" and ROC 4-8" should be an interesting battle about who wins out...ROC gets slightly better synoptic dynamics but BUF gets some lake-enhancement. Hope your right Nick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Final call...BUF 4-8" and ROC 4-8" should be an interesting battle about who wins out...ROC gets slightly better synoptic dynamics but BUF gets some lake-enhancement. Those calls are spot on IMO....I think the ski towns will double that, and near and inland from Watertown (N. Tug) may triple those ranges by Sat. afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Those calls are spot on IMO....I think the ski towns will double that, and near and inland from Watertown (N. Tug) may triple those ranges by Sat. afternoon. Barnes Corners? 2 feet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Those calls are spot on IMO....I think the ski towns will double that, and near and inland from Watertown (N. Tug) may triple those ranges by Sat. afternoon. Old forget/inlet/tug should get bombed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Nice to see some action in here, two great looking systems. This radar loop is mesmerizing! http://www.meteo.psu.../floop_rad.html Run that loop full blast too, a lot of interesting subtleties come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 METS! How many times have you see a triple barreled low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 That can't be spot on Ayuud, because nothern Michigan is calling for a foot+ while that shows a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Final call...BUF 4-8" and ROC 4-8" should be an interesting battle about who wins out...ROC gets slightly better synoptic dynamics but BUF gets some lake-enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 That can't be spot on Ayuud, because nothern Michigan is calling for a foot+ while that shows a few inches. it shows 6-8" with some 8-10" in some spots by 12z Friday,here is the link http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I just shovelled 4 inches of concrete. Today we had a mix of sleet and snow....but now it's snowing HEAVILY. Blizzard like out there with strong winds and blinding snow. Just came back from a jebwalk..... It's nice out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I just shovelled 4 inches of concrete. Today we had a mix of sleet and snow....but now it's snowing HEAVILY. Blizzard like out there with strong winds and blinding snow. Just came back from a jebwalk..... It's nice out wish i was there thanks for the report. tomorrow should be another fun day for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I just shovelled 4 inches of concrete. Today we had a mix of sleet and snow....but now it's snowing HEAVILY. Blizzard like out there with strong winds and blinding snow. Just came back from a jebwalk..... It's nice out You guys in Ottawa look to get a great hit from a pretty unusual storm track! Good luck...we need your snowpack up there for cold source regions!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 You guys in Ottawa look to get a great hit from a pretty unusual storm track! Good luck...we need your snowpack up there for cold source regions!! What a year for me to move back to Toronto from Ottawa! Winters here are naturally milder than Ottawa's but this year is really making it seem all that warmer. It's ridiculous here in the Big Smoke at the moment. Bare ground mostly, apart from a brief period of moderate wet snow this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 the temp difference between ottawa and toronto the past week has been absurd. yesterday i looked and it was -12C in ottawa and the same time it was +7 in toronto.....what the heck its been like that all week! its amazing what a solid snowpack can do, but i dont think it can do THAT much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I still have quite high hopes for this event, its just a strange gut feeling. Between a rapidly deepening surface low directly over WNY, strong upper level support, warmer than normal lakes, and ample synoptic moisture....something has got to give. It almost reminds me of the great 99 snowstorm that pummeled Rochester. I need to dig up the maps from that storm system. Probably the greatest overachiever of my lifetime. I've got a good feeling about the ROC in this one. I'm soo glad you said that. I too found myself remembering that storm track and the similarities for tomorrows storm. I don't remember well, but I'm pretty sure WSWarnings were already up for about 4-8 or so of snow, vs: this ones 3-5. we'll see. the track is similar. I think we ended up with a north wind in 99 AND OF COURSE 2 feet of snow and a BLIZZARD warning upgrade in the am. LOVED it. maybe my #2 storm after the Super. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 some lake-enhancement noticeable on the 00z BUF WRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 lightning in the distance is being reported in jamestown. Temp is 30 degrees 1 1/4 SM vis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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