West Point, NY Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 :snowman: :snowman: here as we wind down to flurries/ snow grains. Hoping for another 2-4" tomorrow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 tomorrow looks pretty good for BUF i think. I'd probably go about 3-6". Still waiting for the euro to go with a final call. Decent synoptic snows for about 6 hours with some lake-enhancement with 240 sfc winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 tomorrow looks pretty good for BUF i think. I'd probably go about 3-6". Still waiting for the euro to go with a final call. Decent synoptic snows for about 6 hours with some lake-enhancement with 240 sfc winds. But when surface winds are 240 are 850's cold enough for a lake response? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 But when surface winds are 240 are 850's cold enough for a lake response? yes...there's low-level instability right with then the synoptic snows start early Friday morning. You won't see big instability numbers during lake-enhancement events. Adding 100-200 j/kg from the lake in the low levels could be the difference between moderate snow and heavy snow or light snow and moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 yes...there's low-level instability right with then the synoptic snows start early Friday morning. You won't see big instability numbers during lake-enhancement events. Adding 100-200 j/kg from the lake in the low levels could be the difference between moderate snow and heavy snow or light snow and moderate snow. So your thinking 3-6" with lake enhancement or 3-6" with more possible if we can get some lake response? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 So your thinking 3-6" with lake enhancement or 3-6" with more possible if we can get some lake response? 3-6" included lake-enhancement. I think warning criteria amounts are possible...but I wouldn't forecast them, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 3-6" included lake-enhancement. I think warning criteria amounts are possible...but I wouldn't forecast them, yet. Synoptic snows do look good already out to the west over Illinois ect...So far at KBUF since midnight 0.77" of rain has fallen breaking the record of 0.73" set back in 1909... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Synoptic snows do look good already out to the west over Illinois ect... So far at KBUF since midnight 0.77" of rain has fallen breaking the record of 0.73" set back in 1909... our snows are going come from the SSW. That area over Tennessee is what becomes our snow "storm" tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 our snows are going come from the SSW. That area over Tennessee is what becomes our snow "storm" tomorrow. Oh, thats too bad because they seem to be overachieving out west. Chicago upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning with 4-8" expected, originally they were only forecasting 2-4"... Maybe this storm could be an overachiever here too. That'd be nice for a change. 4" would seem like 2 fricken feet this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 You know it never changed to rain here. It redevloped as heavy wet icy snow. At times we get light and it goes to mostly sleet. Gained another inch to 5.5 total now despite compaction. 31.6F and a light mainly wet snow now. .... lol was that forecasted? anyways congrats on the half foot haha.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I won't give you the pleasure of looking at a good looking women. But either way point proven.... (You would get less depressed watching all the snow in ski country if you actually skied/boarded/snowmobiled. If you did these things, no matter where the snow hits in WNY you will be happy, try it sometime its fun!) It gets rather annoying seeing you flip out on every weather forum if you don't get the max snow accumulations in Eggertsville, which averages far less snowfall then nearly everywhere south of your region. Logan congratz on the snow! Thats why you cannot always rely on models, because they were showing rain in your area with this first system. You ended up getting Advisory snow accumulations with this system as well as the one to come tomorrow as well! you wont be seeing snow if i come down there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 our snows are going come from the SSW. That area over Tennessee is what becomes our snow "storm" tomorrow. the hrr model takes the deformation right over us,i hope it's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 you wont be seeing snow if i come down there lol Love your signature. Is that the October 2006 band? sure looks like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Love your signature. Is that the October 2006 band? sure looks like it yeh,best LES storm hands down!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 the hrr model takes the deformation right over us,i hope it's correct. For the first time this year the snow looks to be building beautifully over to our west and south. Lets hope it can continue. Hopefully the hrr is right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 yeh,best LES storm hands down!. My favorite was 2001 but imagine if during the oct 06 event had temps 2 degrees colder, we would have had more instability and less melting we prob would have seen 40 inches in less than 24 hours. That was my number 2 storm and last years December 1st-3rd event was my third favorite.Your signature is truly awesome but totally making my computer slow lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Lake Erie is at 39 degrees which is 5 above the average for this date, and 1 degree from the all time record warmest. Also the temperature of 39 is the average lake temp of December 14th!!! Just an intresting FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 We ended up with about 3", but 10 min east at my shop in downtown Albany it looks like almost nothing stuck (I checked my security cameras online). I haven't had to pay my poor plow guy yet this year....poor him....good for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 We ended up with about 3", but 10 min east at my shop in downtown Albany it looks like almost nothing stuck (I checked my security cameras online). I haven't had to pay my poor plow guy yet this year....poor him....good for me. Good thing you didnt pay him seasonal!!! I know some plow drivers out this way who get payed 300-500 dollars for a season and havn't even had to plow once. They are making out like bandits! Record profits! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 euro looks pretty nice...definitely amped up a bit. Pops a secondary just west of BGM at 09z tomorrow. Gives BUF 0.50" of QPF...ROC 0.6-0.7" which should basically all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 euro looks pretty nice...definitely amped up a bit. Pops a secondary just west of BGM at 09z tomorrow. Gives BUF 0.50" of QPF...ROC 0.6-0.7" which should basically all snow. Nice. What are you thinking for ratios - about 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 So far as of 11am this morning Alexandia Bay had .50" of ice accretion. Theres certainly some power outages and scattered damage there... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF&format=ci&version=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Nice. What are you thinking for ratios - about 10:1? could be better...depends on the omega through sgz. Column is colder than you're typical synoptic event...so 12:1 maybe 15:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 could be better...depends on the omega through sgz. Column is colder than you're typical synoptic event...so 12:1 maybe 15:1. So 6-8 inches isn't out of the realm of possibility hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 So 6-8 inches isn't out of the realm of possibility hmm... I still have quite high hopes for this event, its just a strange gut feeling. Between a rapidly deepening surface low directly over WNY, strong upper level support, warmer than normal lakes, and ample synoptic moisture....something has got to give. It almost reminds me of the great 99 snowstorm that pummeled Rochester. I need to dig up the maps from that storm system. Probably the greatest overachiever of my lifetime. I've got a good feeling about the ROC in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 This is the first year that we haven't had a seasonal contract. Our new guy only does per event. So far this year we're winning, but you never know what lies ahead. Good thing you didnt pay him seasonal!!! I know some plow drivers out this way who get payed 300-500 dollars for a season and havn't even had to plow once. They are making out like bandits! Record profits! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I still have quite high hopes for this event, its just a strange gut feeling. Between a rapidly deepening surface low directly over WNY, strong upper level support, warmer than normal lakes, and ample synoptic moisture....something has got to give. It almost reminds me of the great 99 snowstorm that pummeled Rochester. I need to dig up the maps from that storm system. Probably the greatest overachiever of my lifetime. I've got a good feeling about the ROC in this one. was it this one? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1999/us0115.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 was it this one? http://www.meteo.psu...1999/us0115.php That wasnt the one, it was March 4-6 1999. Rochester received 22.3" on the 4th, then another 18.4 on the 6th. It was nuts. And now that I've dug them up, they are not similar to the current event.... The first hit in 99 was from a classic Nor'Easter (I think it was a Miller B ) that ran up the Hudson on a nice inland track. Then the storm on the 6th is a clipper than undercut WNY and rocked us with a strong deformation zone enhanced by Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 That wasnt the one, it was March 4-6 1999. Rochester received 22.3" on the 4th, then another 18.4 on the 6th. It was nuts. In some respect I think it looks more similar to the January 15th event than either march 4th or March 6th. March 4th was a monster 500mb low that cut way further south than the one for tomorrow. Well developed 700mb low develops over PA and moves into ENY. Pretty much a perfect storm for BUF and ROC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 In some respect I think it looks more similar to the January 15th event than either march 4th or March 6th. March 4th was a monster 500mb low that cut way further south than the one for tomorrow. Well developed 700mb low develops over PA and moves into ENY. Pretty much a perfect storm for BUF and ROC. Yeah, you can see that my memory was pretty poor, I quickly realized I was wrong once I saw the setup. In my defense, that was a long time ago. I was editing my last post when you posted this. You are right though, the 15th system from 99 does look pretty similar to today's setup. It'll be fun to watch regardless of how much snow ends up IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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