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Synoptic event Jan 11-13... upstate NY


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NAM is considerably cooler than previous runs for the first wave for C/N NY(still a cold rain for me and CNY, it appears)...and plasters most of Upstate and S. Ontario nicely with the 2nd wave!! (Yes, with snow!) We might have bonified WSWatches up by tomorrow!!!! Yea for us! :arrowhead:

it's a bit weaker compared to the 18z though :whistle:

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Totally agree - regardless of where the heaviest snow sets up, looking forward to watching the atmosphere respond to the bowling ball cyclone pass nearby on Friday AM. Arctic air moving in combined with high winds and bursts of snow is always a good way to start a day...

nothing better than a 2-4" with some 40+ gust :snowing:

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And BuffaloWeather said he had a good feeling about the lake effect. Now what Richard!! BOOM!!

What do you mean? 2-4 inches is a "Boom" in my opinion... Thats 33% of my total snowfall of the winter in one event...Either way ski country looks to receive 1+ foot of LES? So thats a "BOOM" for me since im a boarder and a snowmobiler, and your just a "look out the window mom, its snowing type of guy". :lmao:

Have not been able to snowmobile all year, need a good foot+ base in the trails in Eden/Boston hill area. Went skiing a few times already, but nothing beats a foot of fresh powder on the slopes of holiday! :snowing:

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Very wet snow here in downtown Albany. Still though it's accumulating... seems like we are approaching a half inch.

If you want to trust the hrrr we have another 1-3 hours before we see the full changeover so we might be able to scrap a few inches out of this event... Which was above my expectations.

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30.2 and moderate snow, plus the wind is blowing a lot. I measured 2 inches around 25 minutes ago.

All and all ...a lovely night. :)

Very wet snow here in downtown Albany. Still though it's accumulating... seems like we are approaching a half inch.

If you want to trust the hrrr we have another 1-3 hours before we see the full changeover so we might be able to scrap a few inches out of this event... Which was above my expectations.

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Well what do you know...1st inch since October...1.5" here in Colonie to be exact. I figured it was over when the temp shot to 37 last night...happy to be wrong.

Yep... quite a surprise given where we were... the 00z KALB sounding did show plenty of dry air aloft, especially over the 925-700mb level, which I think really helped allow the profile to go isothermal for a longer period of time, as we saw quite a bit of evaporational cooling for the first few hours of the event.

16jpsvl.gif

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KALB (friday)

POTENT MID LEVEL JET COINCIDING WITH IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS WILL

MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING WEATHER ON FRIDAY MORNING. QG DIAGNOSTIC

FIELDS ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING VERTICAL VELOCITIES

OVER THE CWA AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WOULD NOT BE

SURPRISED TO FIND A FEW SQUALLS EMBEDDED ALONG THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT

THAT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY /AS SUGGESTED

IN THE EXPERIENTIAL HIRES WINDOWS OF MESOSCALE MODELS/. IN

FACT...TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA SHOULD DROP BACK BELOW

FREEZING WHICH COULD RESULT IN BLACK ICE FORMATION WHERE SURFACES

ARE NOT TREATED. LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND DEFORMATION

DYNAMICS OVER WESTERN AND EASTERN NY COULD PROLONG THE SNOWFALL

WHICH WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. FURTHERMORE...LAKE ONTARIO

CONTRIBUTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY

NIGHT WITH A 270-280 WIND DIRECTION AND INCREASING LAKE DELTA T/S.

SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW /AND BLOWING SNOW/ ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS

OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN DACKS. DUE TO FORECAST CHALLENGES

THAT REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO THE WIND TRAJECTORIES AND THE TIMING OF

THE INVERSION LEVELS DROPPING BELOW 5K FEET...WE WILL NOT HOIST ANY

HEADLINES AT THE PRESENT TIME. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO

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