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Synoptic event Jan 11-13... upstate NY

Couchsachraga

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted
..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO

NOON EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT

FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK

EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH UP TO

TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION.

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...RISING FROM THE MID 20S AND LOWER 30S TONIGHT

INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

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snowgeek

snowgeek

Posted
Posted

I can't beleive how quiet this thread is <24 hours before a storm! Maybe people have lost there weather energy this year. An overperforming storm (I don't think that's gonna happen with this one) would get us pumped up. I'm thinking an inch of snow here in the CD before a changeover to sleet and then freezing rain. I bet it's raining by 13Z here. It seems like the warm usually performs lately. I'm hoping by tonight we'll know if the ageostrpohic wind down the HV will keep us ice in the morning or if the easterly component takes over. If that happens then it's a game over downslope quick change to light rain. 42F / 26F here. Nice warm day. Wetbulb is 36F. That's never good.

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

I can't beleive how quiet this thread is <24 hours before a storm! Maybe people have lost there weather energy this year. An overperforming storm (I don't think that's gonna happen with this one) would get us pumped up. I'm thinking an inch of snow here in the CD before a changeover to sleet and then freezing rain. I bet it's raining by 13Z here. It seems like the warm usually performs lately. I'm hoping by tonight we'll know if the ageostrpohic wind down the HV will keep us ice in the morning or if the easterly component takes over. If that happens then it's a game over downslope quick change to light rain. 42F / 26F here. Nice warm day. Wetbulb is 36F. That's never good.

Exactly... Its already fairly warm right now, and I'm becoming increasingly concerned our wetbulbs won't get down below freezing. The cloud cover is moving in at just the wrong time, so we will likely hover in the low-mid 30's even before the precipitation gets started. After some initial evaporational cooling, the WAA kicks in pretty strongly aloft, and the easterly flow over the Green Mountains will help to enhance downslope which will both reduce precipitation totals, and allow sufficient warming, without a strong high in place, to transition most valley locations over the plain rain by Thursday morning. There frankly isn't much to be excited about, and I'd say it likely this even will underpreform with regards to the current totals that ALB has for the metro area.

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

Nice BUF write up:

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

A VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD DURING THIS PERIOD AS A

SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS INTO

THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IS INTERCEPTED BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH

DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE

NET RESULT BEING A STRONG SURFACE LOW THAT INTENSIFIES OVER THE

LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THIS

SYSTEM WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN

NEW YORK THROUGH THE PERIOD. DETAILS TO FOLLOW...

MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO HAS

IMPROVED MARKEDLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH THE GFS REALLY BEING

THE MAIN OUTLIER TRYING TO CONSOLIDATE THE LOWS OVER NEW YORK STATE

MORE QUICKLY AND COMPLETELY THURSDAY NIGHT THAN THE REST OF THE MAIN

MODELS. THIS SEEMS RATHER UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE

SYNOPTIC FEATURES NOT TO MENTION INTERACTIONS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS

TERRAIN OVER WHICH THIS CONSOLIDATION WOULD BE TAKING PLACE.

THEREFORE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DISCARDS THE GFS IN FAVOR OF A

GENERAL SREF/NAM SOLUTION THAT MATCHES UP REASONABLY WELL WITH THE

COARSER ECMWF AND GEM GUIDANCE. NOW FOR THE PROJECTED SCENARIO...

WE BEGIN THURSDAY MORNING WITH TWO MAIN SURFACE LOWS IN THE

REGION...A COASTAL LOW OVER THE DELMARVA CO-LOCATED WITH THE

WEAKENING UPPER LOW...REALLY AN OPEN WAVE AT THIS POINT...AND

ANOTHER WEAKER LOW OVER NORTHERN OHIO THAT WAS SPLIT OFF FROM THE

MAIN LOW AS IT TRAVERSED THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A BROAD BAND

OF DEEP ISENTROPIC UPLIFT CONNECTS THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND IS SITUATED

RIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPERATURES OVER

MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STARTING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER

30S...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL MOSTLY BE RAIN. IN FACT RAIN COULD BE

QUITE HEAVY GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE BROAD ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND

SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET PUMPING ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE

REGION. 280K THETA-E SURFACE ALSO INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A TROWAL

ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALSO ENHANCE PRECIP. QPF ON THURSDAY

IS GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE...BUT THIS MAY NEED

TO BE ADJUSTED HIGHER AS GUIDANCE BECOMES CLEARER. THE MOST

SIGNIFICANT CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD HOWEVER IS OVER THE NORTH

COUNTRY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW FREEZING AT THE

SURFACE. GIVEN THE WARM LAYER ALOFT...THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD

OF MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THAT REGION...PARTICULARLY

AS ONE MOVES INLAND AWAY FROM THE ABOVE FREEZING AREAS ADJACENT LAKE

ONTARIO. FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF ONE QUARTER INCH ARE

NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...NECESSITATING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR

LEWIS/JEFFERSON/OSWEGO COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY

MORNING.

THE OCCLUDED FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM

SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. DRY SLOTTING ALONG WITH

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO A LULL IN PRECIPITATION

ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED

MARITIME AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL YIELD CORRESPONDINGLY MILD

HIGHS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE

REGION WITH LOW TO MID 30S IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THE QUIET PERIOD OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON ENDURES INTO THURSDAY

EVENING...HOWEVER LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THINGS COULD GET VERY

INTERESTING INDEED. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST DEVELOPS INTO

AN DEEP UPPER LOW THAT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES OVER

THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SERVE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THE

SURFACE LOW THAT HAS ALSO BEEN HANGING OUT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT

LAKES SINCE THURSDAY. THIS WHOLE PROCESS IS FURTHER ASSISTED BY THE

PRESENCE OF A 100+KT 250MB SOUTHERN STREAM JET RUNNING UP THE

EASTERN SEABOARD EFFECTIVELY PLACING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES UNDER

THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET. COLD AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM

FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY

NIGHT AS THIS LOW INTENSIFIES....POTENTIALLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A

SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL EVENT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ARE

CONFIRMED WITH ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING BROAD MID-LEVEL ASCENT

OVER THE REGION NOT SURPRISINGLY BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A STRONG AREA

OF OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AS THIS COLD FRONTAL BAND LIFTS

ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. FACTOR IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY

WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR GALES ALONG

WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...AS FLOW BELOW

THE INVERSION REMAINS REASONABLY WELL ALIGNED. WE COULD SEE

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLS ACROSS THE REGION AS A WHOLE WITH THE

SYNOPTICALLY GENERATED SNOW WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF THE

LAKES COURTESY OF MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO

CRASH INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE

COLD AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH 20S ACROSS THE NIAGARA

FRONTIER...TRENDING TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THE DEEP SURFACE LOW LIFTS UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FRIDAY.

SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS

ONLY RUNNING IN THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE

RELATIVELY WARMER AIR MAKES ITS LAST STAND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY

WHERE EARLY MORNING HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S DROP INTO THE 20S THROUGH

THE DAY. THE COLDER AIR COMBINED WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS

THE LAKES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO CONTINUE

DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE

EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW THAT IT IS FUTILE TO EXACTLY PINPOINT

LOCATIONS OF LAKE BANDS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR BANDS TO

SET UP ACROSS THE BUFFALO AREA OFF LAKE ERIE AND NORTH OF WATERTOWN

AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN TIER/SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT

INTO SATURDAY AS FLOW VEERS TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL CONTINUE

TO FEEL LIKE WINTER WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 NEAREST THE

LAKES THOUGH CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE

THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

LAKE SNOWS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE

MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THE LAKE SNOWS WILL BE ON A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW

REGIME...FOCUS NEARLY ALL OF THE LAKE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO

AND WATERTOWN AREAS IN THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS ON SATURDAY.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY

NIGHT BEFORE RIDGING DEVELOPS AND BRINGS AN END TO THE LAKE SNOWS. A

CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND

MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A

MORE GENERAL CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME

MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

I will mention that folks further west in central and western New York have a much better chance to get some decent snowfall from the second event, which will be driven more by the deepening of the midwestern trough that will go negatively tilted over the Northeast. That has the potential to wrap into quite a potent storm, and folks in Syracuse and Rochester should be gearing up for what will likely be the biggest synoptic snowfall of the season thus far.

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snowgeek

snowgeek

Posted
Posted

Some good news. Clear skies have stuck around long enough for some radiational cooling. Also, some cold air has started to drain down the hudson valley with Alb reporting a NNE 5mph wind and GFL is 30/18F. Alb has dropped to 34/21F last hour with a wetbulb of 29.7F. Keep hope alive!!!!!!

Exactly... Its already fairly warm right now, and I'm becoming increasingly concerned our wetbulbs won't get down below freezing. The cloud cover is moving in at just the wrong time, so we will likely hover in the low-mid 30's even before the precipitation gets started. After some initial evaporational cooling, the WAA kicks in pretty strongly aloft, and the easterly flow over the Green Mountains will help to enhance downslope which will both reduce precipitation totals, and allow sufficient warming, without a strong high in place, to transition most valley locations over the plain rain by Thursday morning. There frankly isn't much to be excited about, and I'd say it likely this even will underpreform with regards to the current totals that ALB has for the metro area.

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Buffalo Bumble

Buffalo Bumble

Posted
Posted

This is a very complex event, it will be absolutely amazing to watch this thing evolve. I think there will be some big (and positive) surprises out of this one.

Totally agree - regardless of where the heaviest snow sets up, looking forward to watching the atmosphere respond to the bowling ball cyclone pass nearby on Friday AM. Arctic air moving in combined with high winds and bursts of snow is always a good way to start a day...

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

This is a very complex event, it will be absolutely amazing to watch this thing evolve. I think there will be some big (and positive) surprises out of this one.

I agree completely. The system development out of this one seems so strange and different then the normal. My biggest question is a quote from the NWS:

THE DOMINANT LOW WILL BE

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE SECONDARY WEAKER LOW RESIDES OFF

THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.

Normally the stronger low is the one that ends up going up the coast and taking away all the energy from the low pressure system on land? (IE: Noreasters) What makes this situation so different? Does it have to do with the upper level trough dropping arctic air out of Canada which will aid it keeping the low over Michigan the primary of the two lows? Hopefully a met can chime in on this one. Thanks!

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snowgeek

snowgeek

Posted
Posted

I believe that the short wave producing the coastal slow is so detached from the main trough that it can't rob the energy from the primary low. The sw is 1500 miles out ahead of the main upper level low. It's just to far out ahead to phase and transfer the energy to the coastal low. Several days ago, the models had much more phasing and a rainier solution with a strong primary, no coastal and a warm SW flow flooding the east with warm air. The detachment is what is giving us a colder solution tonight.

I agree completely. The system development out of this one seems so strange and different then the normal. My biggest question is a quote from the NWS:

THE DOMINANT LOW WILL BE

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE SECONDARY WEAKER LOW RESIDES OFF

THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.

Normally the stronger low is the one that ends up going up the coast and taking away all the energy from the low pressure system on land? (IE: Noreasters) What makes this situation so different? Does it have to do with the upper level trough dropping arctic air out of Canada which will aid it keeping the low over Michigan the primary of the two lows? Hopefully a met can chime in on this one. Thanks!

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