nzucker Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I just don't think we'll see that much cold air in place before WAA starts ahead of the big cut-off. There's limited time to really cool things down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Well, it should be colder Friday, but I think the precip will be long gone, see ya lata, outa here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Friday doesn't interest me at all in terms of winter precip. Thats something for powderfreak to watch and into upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Temps at 950 really cool down tonight into tomorrow, so that's when the good CAD starts. As winds turn ne, it will pull that air down from Maine..in a similar fashion as the 2008 icestorm. Note I'm comparing the method of CAD...not the actual outcome. Yea there are some pretty low DPs showing up, classic low DP feed for interior elevations. Hubb bubb no power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It was pretty funny though Things still look ok for you folks, right? 6" possible? Yeah, Still looks good, Don't need anymore shifts NW or i will have to beat that warm layer back SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 My Jan 5-15" call may bust high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Friday will fail...absolutely. It can't fail ... because I have zero expectations for it No one should, except W MA and VT upslope areas could do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 via text and yesterday on the board. He claims he has given up on weather and the board. There was also his post of being sick of the "North of the Pike" reference constantly being used to define P type winners and losers and of course that exact reference was used like a dozen time today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 And you'll have wetbulbing too with continual 15kt ne drain in the interior. It's not that CAD I worry about, it's the storm coming too close and shoving warmer air in from the east, and top down...ie having the cold layer grow more and more shallow, if the storm is too close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 00z NAM sucked but more in terms of the lack of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I wish the delusional ones like you who thought snow would give it up. I am trying for WOTY 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I just don't think we'll see that much cold air in place before WAA starts ahead of the big cut-off. There's limited time to really cool things down. there's a front crossing new england tonight with ongoing CAA overnight and into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yea there are some pretty low DPs showing up, classic low DP feed for interior elevations. Hubb bubb no power. Driving to school and back and forth from the mountain will suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 My Jan 5-15" call may bust high. Yeah but you nailed that < 5" call for December so you're credibility is still intact for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 00z NAM sucked but more in terms of the lack of qpf Just came back to reality really, It is usually way overdone on qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yea there are some pretty low DPs showing up, classic low DP feed for interior elevations. Hubb bubb no power. Neat seeing the drain into ORH county and then down the CT River valley. Nothing west of there though. Balmy 33.7/22 here at the Pit. Need a lot better tomorrow if we want any ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 00z NAM sucked but more in terms of the lack of qpf Are you up north attm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 there's a front crossing new england tonight with ongoing CAA overnight and into tomorrow. Yeah...MOS has td's in the single numbers in C NH tomorrow afternoon. It'll start plenty cold enough in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Is the strength of that what's cause the nw shift? (or the other way around)? Thhinking the eyes on Friday are more viable than Thursday. I really can't say for sure. That huge trough definitely has some effect on the track of the southern s/w. I'd rather shift it all east a little. My attention is on the s/w energy to our NE though. We need those heights suppressed with sufficient upstream confluence to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Friday doesn't interest me at all in terms of winter precip. Thats something for powderfreak to watch and into upstate NY. It interests me more just for the meteorology. Looks pretty sick at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yeah...MOS has td's in the single numbers in C NH tomorrow afternoon. It'll start plenty cold enough in the interior. That's the thing. You'll be pulling from a source of lower temp and lower TD air. The interior will be cold enough no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 There was also his post of being sick of the "North of the Pike" reference constantly being used to define P type winners and losers and of course that exact reference was used like a dozen time today. North of St. Johnsbury winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Driving to school and back and forth from the mountain will suck NECN had a video piece tonight about Wa Wa taking a hit from this non-winter we are having this year. http://www.necn.com/01/09/12/Central-Mass-ski-area-struggling/landing_weather.html?blockID=627900&feedID=4211 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Neat seeing the drain into ORH county and then down the CT River valley. Nothing west of there though. Balmy 33.7/22 here at the Pit. Need a lot better tomorrow if we want any ice. The CF crosses overnight MIke, post this map tomorrow night same bat place same bat channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 North of St. Johnsbury winter. We'll see but my gut says we still have enough snow on the ground thursday to survive whatever liquid falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 And you'll have wetbulbing too with continual 15kt ne drain in the interior. It's not that CAD I worry about, it's the storm coming too close and shoving warmer air in from the east, and top down...ie having the cold layer grow more and more shallow, if the storm is too close. It will be very difficult to dislodge the cold air once it becomes entrenched in the interior...esp on those eastern slopes of the ORH hills and Monads. The way you described it warming is how almost all ice events go here...the cold layer becomes more and more shallow with time and eventually we hit the death obs of 33F and rain unless we are getting a steady diet of lower dewpoint air from the northeast to offset the latent heat release...but if we get too easterly, then we just warm from the top down. Actually, in most of the icing events here, it does turn to a 33F rain at the end, but usually doesn't do anything to melt the ice off the trees. Really the Dec '08 ice storm was an exception and that it never went to rain...and even the colder models had it flipping to rain the final 6 hours, but it never did. Jan 7-8, 2009 also never flipped...but last year we went to 33-34F at the end in the 2/25 event and briefly spiked to like 37 in the 2/5 event after hours of 31F and ice. The low track might make a big difference on how fast the sfc warms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I am trying for WOTY 2012 I'm just messn....you've been good this season. No one is perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The CF crosses overnight MIke, post this map tomorrow night same bat place same bat channel. I was just looking at that mesomap a little more closely. Is that 28 near Norwich you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It interests me more just for the meteorology. Looks pretty sick at 500mb Cue ray rant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I would not be surprised after seeing today's runs if the icing threat is bigger than advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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