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Thursday's storm ...Rain, snow, ice, wind (part 2)


OKpowdah

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Temps at 950 really cool down tonight into tomorrow, so that's when the good CAD starts. As winds turn ne, it will pull that air down from Maine..in a similar fashion as the 2008 icestorm. Note I'm comparing the method of CAD...not the actual outcome.

Yea there are some pretty low DPs showing up, classic low DP feed for interior elevations. Hubb bubb no power.

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Is the strength of that what's cause the nw shift? (or the other way around)?

Thhinking the eyes on Friday are more viable than Thursday.

I really can't say for sure. That huge trough definitely has some effect on the track of the southern s/w. I'd rather shift it all east a little. My attention is on the s/w energy to our NE though. We need those heights suppressed with sufficient upstream confluence to our north.

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And you'll have wetbulbing too with continual 15kt ne drain in the interior. It's not that CAD I worry about, it's the storm coming too close and shoving warmer air in from the east, and top down...ie having the cold layer grow more and more shallow, if the storm is too close.

It will be very difficult to dislodge the cold air once it becomes entrenched in the interior...esp on those eastern slopes of the ORH hills and Monads.

The way you described it warming is how almost all ice events go here...the cold layer becomes more and more shallow with time and eventually we hit the death obs of 33F and rain unless we are getting a steady diet of lower dewpoint air from the northeast to offset the latent heat release...but if we get too easterly, then we just warm from the top down.

Actually, in most of the icing events here, it does turn to a 33F rain at the end, but usually doesn't do anything to melt the ice off the trees. Really the Dec '08 ice storm was an exception and that it never went to rain...and even the colder models had it flipping to rain the final 6 hours, but it never did. Jan 7-8, 2009 also never flipped...but last year we went to 33-34F at the end in the 2/25 event and briefly spiked to like 37 in the 2/5 event after hours of 31F and ice.

The low track might make a big difference on how fast the sfc warms.

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