OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yeah 00z NAM is not what we want. On another note, how about that bowling ball rolling into the Ohio Valley?? 110kt+ at 500mb digging into that thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Who cares Hopefully you ping, heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 we are all so moronic for being negative. Where is Tip. I want to pour a beer over his head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Link, please...missed it via text and yesterday on the board. He claims he has given up on weather and the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 If you hold a bust against a meteorologist...then the list of those to trust will dwindle to zero very quickly, lol. I'm just kidding you...you're among the best on this board. But I don't think we can have the same expectations this winter because we don't have the typical degree of antecedent cold in place as in most New England winters. We hit 41F here in Rindge today at 1200', so we're not starting this event with an arctic airmass in place and the low is cutting to the west initially. I never like events where the cold air is playing catch-up as in the last busted snowstorm here...this is a similar situation with a 1028mb high nosing in but not far enough to bring in a true northerly ageostrophic flow. The combination of warmer than average antecedent conditions and a ULL to the west cuts down on the threat for more than a few inches of slop here, in my mind. I also see that winds are a bit more easterly than northeast with the high moving offshore so I don't think we have a December 2008 mega ice storm coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Poor Kevin. He's had a truly epic meltdown. Good thing he's sleeping now. Yeah, He went over the edge this am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 No kidding. He had 25" of snow in Oct, while I struggled to get an inch on my car top. My total right now is 1.5". 0.5" came last night. How do you think I feel. Yeah those posts are just about the absolute worst. I'm glad the people in ski country will cash in... but I don't need to hear snow to ice people complaining that it's not what Will promised them. Grow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Where is Tip. I want to pour a beer over his head. LOL. collective woe-is-me negativity FTW.....AGAIN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Where is Tip. I want to pour a beer over his head. Yea, he was on his high horse writing 4 page daitribes on how we were too heavily emotionally invested and why it would be snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Hopefully you ping, heavily. Hopefully it only snows in Wilmington and no where else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yeah, He went over the edge this am Did he get his first warning? lol On the other hand, Sam;s call a week ago looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm just kidding you...you're among the best on this board. But I don't think we can have the same expectations this winter because we don't have the typical degree of antecedent cold in place as in most New England winters. We hit 41F here in Rindge today at 1200', so we're not starting this event with an arctic airmass in place and the low is cutting to the west initially. I never like events where the cold air is playing catch-up as in the last busted snowstorm here...this is a similar situation with a 1028mb high nosing in but not far enough to bring in a true northerly ageostrophic flow. The combination of warmer than average antecedent conditions and a ULL to the west cuts down on the threat for more than a few inches of slop here, in my mind. I also see that winds are a bit more easterly than northeast with the high moving offshore so I don't think we have a December 2008 mega ice storm coming. well that was never the case. but there will still likely be some decent cold air damming. tomorrow's the colder day, not today so don't use that as the measuring stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Numerous toasters available Ronco Rotisserie time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Hey, where did my avatar go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Hopefully it only snows in Wilmington and no where else. Who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Look how tight that upper low is!! How often do you see max vorticity within the center of a trough of that wavelength? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Once upon a time, Bobby threatened to give me a TO for posting a single toaster pic.....now there are more on this one page than there have been flakes in Boston all winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 hope now is that ULL just digs for oil and cuts out under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Where is Tip. I want to pour a beer over his head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Hey, where did my avatar go? It went over Eric's cliff like our winter storm on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm just kidding you...you're among the best on this board. But I don't think we can have the same expectations this winter because we don't have the typical degree of antecedent cold in place as in most New England winters. We hit 41F here in Rindge today at 1200', so we're not starting this event with an arctic airmass in place and the low is cutting to the west initially. I never like events where the cold air is playing catch-up as in the last busted snowstorm here...this is a similar situation with a 1028mb high nosing in but not far enough to bring in a true northerly ageostrophic flow. The combination of warmer than average antecedent conditions and a ULL to the west cuts down on the threat for more than a few inches of slop here, in my mind. I also see that winds are a bit more easterly than northeast with the high moving offshore so I don't think we have a December 2008 mega ice storm coming. On the first bolded...you'll see tomorrow night that the cold air will settle in. It should be in the 20s tomorrow night as the cold air drains down. So its not like the 12/23 event when it was 40F and we were trying to cool the BL from the top down. On the 2nd bolded...no kidding, lol. We aren't getting 3 inches of qpf like in the Dec '08 storm. But this is a snow to ice event for you and for me too. I might go to a cold rain before it ends, but I think a majority of the precip that falls is frozen/freezing. Maybe you tick to 34F late in the game, but it won't affect the event much. Most of the qpf will have fallen. I mean, I couldn't tell you if you will get 4.6" or 2.1" on the front end before the flip...but either way it should be a pretty wintry event there. We are not waiting to cool from the top down. If we are all sitting at 36F tomorrow night, then it will be time to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Temps at 950 really cool down tonight into tomorrow, so that's when the good CAD starts. As winds turn ne, it will pull that air down from Maine..in a similar fashion as the 2008 icestorm. Note I'm comparing the method of CAD...not the actual outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 NAM is pretty ugly even for the 'Dacks, 18z Nam crushed them and the 0z Nam is very blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Where is Tip. I want to pour a beer over his head. How often did he ask me to change the title of the last thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Did he get his first warning? lol On the other hand, Sam;s call a week ago looks pretty good Don't know, But i thought it was childish and uncalled for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Don't know, But i thought it was childish and uncalled for It was pretty funny though Things still look ok for you folks, right? 6" possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 How often did he ask me to change the title of the last thread I tried to tell him that the pessimism and worry was not because this winter has failed so far...there are similar meteorological reasons for each storm as to why it failed, and some of those are incorporated into this storm. It's not just "weenie" worry..there is actual meteorology behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 NAM at least heading in the right direction for Friday. Unfortunately, confluence to our north is a little weaker throughout the whole run ... oh the differences a -NAO would make Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Look how tight that upper low is!! How often do you see max vorticity within the center of a trough of that wavelength? Is the strength of that what's cause the nw shift? (or the other way around)? Thhinking the eyes on Friday are more viable than Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Friday will fail...absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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