ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 No spike here... very slight decline... half a degree over the last hour 29.0F attm... Wind is SE, I would guess around 2-5 mph But this is more for the obs thread. Will messenger or Phil get any thunder? We got as low as 29.3F, then jumped to 30.8F but have since fallen back about a degree to 29.7F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 00z NAM looks like it really amped up the QPF tomorrow at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm really surprised BGM started as -RA at 1600'. I thought they'd begin with a light snow or freezing rain at that elevation, seems like a bad sign. Their winds are already SE so the CAD is not that deep. BGM isn't a classic CAD location though...neither is ALB. This will be one of those storms where west of the Greens and Berks don't really have much of a chance until you get up near Lake George or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 29.0\24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 29.0\24 Who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 29.0\24 Status fail today...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Friday looks underwhelming on the NAM. It's a nice squall line, but the problem is it seems to be rain. Maybe it flips to snow and up to an inch here. Otherwise the main recipients of snow are in central NY where they are better positioned. Upslope that may set up later for Pete, PF, etc. is another matter, but doesn't impact me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I don't think this is a fair analysis because the damming high is having much more of an effect in New England than in the Poconos. Once the WAA starts to run into the cold air associated with the 1025mb high over Eastern Quebec, you're going to see a halt in the progress of warm air moving northward. The Poconos are usually a poor spot in these types of set-ups because they're pretty far SW, and Mt Pocono especially. They are also on the west side of the Apps so don't benefit nearly as much from CAD. I am a bit worried about temps though. AFN has clouded over at 28F and ORH is still at 31F. Also, winds are east, not northeast. Usually areas from NEPA to the western side of the HV are good indications of what to expect upstream in areas of NWCT and MA but in SWFEs it can be alittle tricky.. You guys tend to hang onto the cold alittle longer and have enough lattitude to allow the secondary to take over. We are sometimes caught in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The whole scenario..in any kind of normal winter we'd probably get a decent lets say 4-6 inch front end followed by some PL and FZRA and GFL gets maybe 8" and all snow.... Not this year ...... BGM isn't a classic CAD location though...neither is ALB. This will be one of those storms where west of the Greens and Berks don't really have much of a chance until you get up near Lake George or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The whole scenario..in any kind of normal winter we'd probably get a decent lets say 4-6 inch front end followed by some PL and FZRA and GFL gets maybe 8" and all snow.... Not this year ...... I agree.. We usually do ok in SWFE events down here in the Mid HV but this yr we dont have a prayer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 33/22 now ..sorry to be the bearer of the bad temp. news..... I'm about the same latitude as NZucker, but west of course. The whole scenario..in any kind of normal winter we'd probably get a decent lets say 4-6 inch front end followed by some PL and FZRA and GFL gets maybe 8" and all snow.... Not this year ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Up to 34/23 in Keene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Up to 34/23 in Keene. Why does Keene run so much warmer than here? Is it mostly a matter of elevation? That seems like a large temperature spike. Could we start the storm as rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Up to 34/23 in Keene. Wow... the bathtub of KFIT is "only" 30/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I don't think this is a fair analysis because the damming high is having much more of an effect in New England than in the Poconos. Once the WAA starts to run into the cold air associated with the 1025mb high over Eastern Quebec, you're going to see a halt in the progress of warm air moving northward. The Poconos are usually a poor spot in these types of set-ups because they're pretty far SW, and Mt Pocono especially. They are also on the west side of the Apps so don't benefit nearly as much from CAD. I am a bit worried about temps though. AFN has clouded over at 28F and ORH is still at 31F. Also, winds are east, not northeast. West side of the apps, you sure about that? Last time I checked, Poconos were located rather far east in the apps lol. Anyways, Poconos get cad signatures all the time, many severe ice storms have come from it. That damning gets trapped along the east side of the Apps once inawhile and forget about it. I honestly agree with the original poster though, Mt Pocono at an elevation of roughly 2000 feet just to my s/w starting off as rain in Nepa. hmmm.. I started with a sleet/rain mixture here at 1,230 feet. That Binghamton report of an elevation of 1600 feet is a scary thought too for some of you guys in my opinion. Sorry for entering the thread, but a short report to your s/w guys, 34 here with sleet/ rain mixture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Why does Keene run so much warmer than here? Is it mostly a matter of elevation? That seems like a large temperature spike. Could we start the storm as rain? All those pumpkins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 A skewed CF, not a surface reflection per se. The answer is blowin in the wind. LOL ... W to E track with no crashing heights till game-set-match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Was 29 degrees on my way home at 9:30pm tonight. I just looked at the Glens Falls airport ( NWS) and it's down to 25 now, but no precip has started falling yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Temps jumped up a few tenths and back down a few tenths. Pretty steady at 32F though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 West side of the apps, you sure about that? Last time I checked, Poconos were located rather far east in the apps lol. Anyways, Poconos get cad signatures all the time, many severe ice storms have come from it. That damning gets trapped along the east side of the Apps once inawhile and forget about it. I honestly agree with the original poster though, Mt Pocono at an elevation of roughly 2000 feet just to my s/w starting off as rain in Nepa. hmmm.. I started with a sleet/rain mixture here at 1,230 feet. That Binghamton report of an elevation of 1600 feet is a scary thought too for some of you guys in my opinion. Sorry for entering the thread, but a short report to your s/w guys, 34 here with sleet/ rain mixture. BGM is not that best locale for this cold air damming. The air is modified and downsloped, and 850 temps start spiking. Same deal with MPO. I agree they can wedge, but they need a better high and antecedent airmass. being farther from the source region hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Good luck for those that might see something interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 West side of the apps, you sure about that? Last time I checked, Poconos were located rather far east in the apps lol. Anyways, Poconos get cad signatures all the time, many severe ice storms have come from it. That damning gets trapped along the east side of the Apps once inawhile and forget about it. I honestly agree with the original poster though, Mt Pocono at an elevation of roughly 2000 feet just to my s/w starting off as rain in Nepa. hmmm.. I started with a sleet/rain mixture here at 1,230 feet. That Binghamton report of an elevation of 1600 feet is a scary thought too for some of you guys in my opinion. Sorry for entering the thread, but a short report to your s/w guys, 34 here with sleet/ rain mixture. They are west of the higher mountain ranges like the Catskills and Greens that have more of a CAD signature. Obviously we are talking relatively here as I'm posting from New Hampshire, where a damming high north of the border is going to be much more effective than at MPO and BGM. I agree that the storm is trending warmer and will probably end up being a toaster bath here, but I don't necessarily agree that just because it's rain at 1600' in BGM means it will be rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 If people are reporting temp obs, they should probably go in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 You certainly have a right to enter the thread. Good to get upstream obs... West side of the apps, you sure about that? Last time I checked, Poconos were located rather far east in the apps lol. Anyways, Poconos get cad signatures all the time, many severe ice storms have come from it. That damning gets trapped along the east side of the Apps once inawhile and forget about it. I honestly agree with the original poster though, Mt Pocono at an elevation of roughly 2000 feet just to my s/w starting off as rain in Nepa. hmmm.. I started with a sleet/rain mixture here at 1,230 feet. That Binghamton report of an elevation of 1600 feet is a scary thought too for some of you guys in my opinion. Sorry for entering the thread, but a short report to your s/w guys, 34 here with sleet/ rain mixture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Why does Keene run so much warmer than here? Is it mostly a matter of elevation? That seems like a large temperature spike. Could we start the storm as rain? I had chili for dinner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 lol... Overnight: Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 24. East wind between 7 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. 30.2/27 That being said, it "feels" like an icestorm. The radar downstream looks awesome too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 BGM is not that best locale for this cold air damming. The air is modified and downsloped, and 850 temps start spiking. Same deal with MPO. I agree they can wedge, but they need a better high and antecedent airmass. being farther from the source region hurts. The Binghamton quote was directed more toward latitude respectfully compared to some locations in the MA/CONN area thats all. Not to mention some added elevation. Although I agree, not the best example given the lower latitude down here especially. We just have elevation on our side in MOST cases. Although with this set up your right, we are just to far south away from the source. You gotta admit though, latest short range models are a bit alarming for some of your southern regions. Nne looks in store for a nice thumping still. btw, enjoy reading the threads here guys. I wish you guys luck tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Who cares Don't make me shave that back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Status fail today...lol How is that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I had chili for dinner Good call last week and good night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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