Tropopause_Fold Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 LOL. that's very CT Blizz of you. honestly, you should watch for ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Or maybe he is traumatized because he moved to an area that averages 90"+ per year and he is on a pace for 18" (after 10/30) 28 and ovc here. At least we are cold at the lowest levels this time. On the other hand BGM has started as -RN so there is little room for error. Nate has been traumatized by growing up in the lower Hudson Valley. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Can anyone post the sref snowfall probs? No one posted them so I'm assuming they were a complete torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 No, I could honestly see Rindge getting less snow this winter than Dobbs Ferry in 10-11 (69.5") and 09-10 (68")...I am traumatized by the fact that it's mid January at 1200' in the Monadnocks and there's not any snow on the ground. Tubes, enjoy the snow, whether its an inch or 5, some of us have not seen snow since October, each flake should be welcomed with open arms this year. I would kill for 5 minutes of light snow tonight, be thankful for whatever you get, you also get to enjoy later friday and friday night, it could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Can anyone post the sref snowfall probs? No one posted them so I'm assuming they were a complete torch. I'll make it easy 0% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 that's very CT Blizz of you. honestly, you should watch for ice. Yea seems to be going that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Dews over Maine are in the single digits and below zero. Good source If it can be efficiently tapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Dews over Maine are in the single digits and below zero. Good source Static cling......ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'll make it easy 0% LOL, I'm sure they were for here, but I like seeing what it has for NH+ME too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 You know whats probably going to happen Joe.... you'll be in "best Spring ever" mode in mid/late March and then you'll get a few late season snowfalls. and Spring will then feature endless raw rain events. Tubes, enjoy the snow, whether its an inch or 5, some of us have not seen snow since October, each flake should be welcomed with open arms this year. I would kill for 5 minutes of light snow tonight, be thankful for whatever you get, you also get to enjoy later friday and friday night, it could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 nam still looks good for friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Can anyone post the sref snowfall probs? No one posted them so I'm assuming they were a complete torch. they aren't good. but that's not too shocking really. this one has been beaten to a pulp at this point...not a whole lot to add from a model perspective. the ruc/hrrr won't even be all that useful as the big thing from here on out will be holding in the low level cold and watching the mid-level warmth move north (the RUC / HRRR will likely prove too quick there). it'll be surface obs, the exact placement of SLP and knowing your local climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 LOL, I'm sure they were for here, but I like seeing what it has for NH+ME too. They actually increased the 1" probs a lot for GC and into Socks area...and extreme N ORH county...gave us nothing here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Or maybe he is traumatized because he moved to an area that averages 90"+ per year and he is on a pace for 18" (after 10/30) 28 and ovc here. At least we are cold at the lowest levels this time. On the other hand BGM has started as -RN so there is little room for error. I'm really surprised BGM started as -RA at 1600'. I thought they'd begin with a light snow or freezing rain at that elevation, seems like a bad sign. Their winds are already SE so the CAD is not that deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 So some of us are in the acceptance phase of the five step process and clinging to hope for Friday.... Others are still in the denial phase and relying on "real time" radars and obs because model data doesn't really matter now. Hah they aren't good. but that's not too shocking really. this one has been beaten to a pulp at this point...not a whole lot to add from a model perspective. the ruc/hrrr won't even be all that useful as the big thing from here on out will be holding in the low level cold and watching the mid-level warmth move north (the RUC / HRRR will likely prove too quick there). it'll be surface obs, the exact placement of SLP and knowing your local climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm really surprised BGM started as -RA at 1600'. I thought they'd begin with a light snow or freezing rain at that elevation, seems like a bad sign. Their winds are already SE so the CAD is not that deep. BGM is on the wrong side of the Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Seems like more of a win for the NAM ...and maybe even a little warmer than what the NAM had indicated for 1Z. A day ago the Euro was forecasting this to begin as snow in north central PA.... I'm really surprised BGM started as -RA at 1600'. I thought they'd begin with a light snow or freezing rain at that elevation, seems like a bad sign. Their winds are already SE so the CAD is not that deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 they aren't good. but that's not too shocking really. this one has been beaten to a pulp at this point...not a whole lot to add from a model perspective. the ruc/hrrr won't even be all that useful as the big thing from here on out will be holding in the low level cold and watching the mid-level warmth move north (the RUC / HRRR will likely prove too quick there). it'll be surface obs, the exact placement of SLP and knowing your local climo. The RUC/HRRR are complete torches...its really just the gfs/euro that give me hope for accumulating snow. I'm headed to bed soon so I will most likely wake up at 7 to bare ground anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 So some of us are in the acceptance phase of the five step process and clinging to hope for Friday.... Others are still in the denial phase and relying on "real time" radars and obs because model data doesn't really matter now. Hah Looking at radar and the calandar says "snow", but in reality it says "no!" lol I'll be happy with at least being able to track something and gain a little knowledge. If I get some snow or ice, so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm really surprised BGM started as -RA at 1600'. I thought they'd begin with a light snow or freezing rain at that elevation, seems like a bad sign. Their winds are already SE so the CAD is not that deep. This was my point earlier about Mt Pocono. It seems you are finally catching on to the significance of the observations to our SW......You will see a significant ice storm, not a snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 This was my point earlier about Mt Pocono. It seems you are finally catching on to the significance of the observations to our SW......You will see a significant ice storm, not a snowfall. Rindge will start as snow. Obviously I'm not crazy seeing BGM at 35F but the CAD is much deeper on this side of the Apps. We still have a chance for a decent snowfall if the 12z ECM verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Temp spiked 4F in an hour and a half. 31.4 to 35.4 now. The fat lady has sung. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Nate may still pull some decent front end snow (not sure) , but here 110 miles up I-88 from BGM the writing is on the wall if they can't even start as a few hours of frozen. There would have to be some kind of wicked confluence going on to save us. This was my point earlier about Mt Pocono. It seems you are finally catching on to the significance of the observations to our SW......You will see a significant ice storm, not a snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 the wbz on the 00z chh sounding is under 800 feet...so this should be ok for a bit over the northern interior. and the surface winds being SE right now is only a concern if we don't actually see a pressure fall off the MA coast...otherwise that's not surprising right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 We have jumped from 28 to 32 in 30 minutes. Maybe the clouds lowering and prercip. approaching. Dry though.... 32/22. Rindge will start as snow. Obviously I'm not crazy seeing BGM at 35F but the CAD is much deeper on this side of the Apps. We still have a chance for a decent snowfall if the 12z ECM verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Secondary low is developing over central NC with the greatest pressure falls over Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Temp spiked 4F in an hour and a half. 31.4 to 35.4 now. The fat lady has sung. Next. No spike here... very slight decline... half a degree over the last hour 29.0F attm... Wind is SE, I would guess around 2-5 mph But this is more for the obs thread. Will messenger or Phil get any thunder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Dews over Maine are in the single digits and below zero. Good source Kind of Like 1/3/1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 31/22, Like the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Temp spiked 4F in an hour and a half. 31.4 to 35.4 now. The fat lady has sung. Next. 29.1\24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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