OKpowdah Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Keene is sitting at 32/21F right now. I expect some pretty big difference between downtown Keene vs. MBY vs. Nate I could see downtown getting 2", MBY getting 4-5" and Nate pulling off 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Keene is sitting at 32/21F right now. I expect some pretty big difference between downtown Keene vs. MBY vs. Nate I could see downtown getting 2", MBY getting 4-5" and Nate pulling off 7" Tubes is expecting rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Not sure what you're worried about. What are you expecting? 18z runs looked good to me and we're getting a nice drain of dry/cool air. I am thinking we're getting 1-3" then ice then over to rain. I was expecting 4-6" when this first started to trend colder a couple days ago but the 18z NAM is definitely worrying although 12z ECM is pretty chilly. I am right on the Massachusetts border so it's going to be hard to fight the mid-level warmth. I also am a bit worried that the surface is not cooling fast enough. The forecasted high was 32F today and we hit 38F, consistent overperformance of warmth this winter. Temperatures aren't far enough below freezing in the Monadnocks and ORH right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Up here in Methuen, I was 31 about an hour ago and now my temp has gone up to 33.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Fairly cold in the southern dacks, 22/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 That NAM is still an absolute torch in the mid-levels by 12z tomorrow...amazing jst how different it is than the Euro/GFS....its literally like 50-60 miles north with the 0C line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The nam looks slightly cooler at first although not sure it matters much at this point. edit: torch by 12z; only 9z was slightly cooler. Model wars. 32/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Keene is sitting at 32/21F right now. I expect some pretty big difference between downtown Keene vs. MBY vs. Nate I could see downtown getting 2", MBY getting 4-5" and Nate pulling off 7" A bit OT, but how does the td affect icing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 That NAM is still an absolute torch in the mid-levels by 12z tomorrow...amazing jst how different it is than the Euro/GFS....its literally like 50-60 miles north with the 0C line. Looks juicier at 15 versus 21 on 18z but I think it's a bit warmer actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The differences in the nam and gfs are like what it should be day 3/4 not the night of the storm. It's the difference between nothing and 2-4"/ice for Will and between nothing and 2" or so to ice for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 A bit OT, but how does the td affect icing? Drier air allows for more evaporational cooling which keeps the surface cooled against the heat of freezing, which makes freezing rain events generally self-destructive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I don't think this is a fair analysis because the damming high is having much more of an effect in New England than in the Poconos. Once the WAA starts to run into the cold air associated with the 1025mb high over Eastern Quebec, you're going to see a halt in the progress of warm air moving northward. The Poconos are usually a poor spot in these types of set-ups because they're pretty far SW, and Mt Pocono especially. They are also on the west side of the Apps so don't benefit nearly as much from CAD. I am a bit worried about temps though. AFN has clouded over at 28F and ORH is still at 31F. Also, winds are east, not northeast. Mount Pocono is on the far east side of the Apps and always gets CAD, even at elevation. If they are raining, it will {eventually} be raining in SNE. Mt Pocono sits at about 1800 ft, next to Tobyhanna/ Gouldsboro, which is basically the snow belt of NE PA. Mt. Pocono and Scranton have very different microclimates. The microclimate of Mt. Pocono is similar to NW of Worcester or the Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The NAM is a torch in the MLs, but it is at least showing more CAD in the low levels than it had been the previous couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 A bit OT, but how does the td affect icing? The lower the dew point ...the larger the dew point depression (temp-td) ... the more evaporative cooling will occur when precipitation moves in (the temperature and dew point converge on the wetbulb temp ... hence "wetbulbing") If you can get a low level flow feeding in lower tds from the north/NE throughout the storm, it helps maintain subfreezing temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Mount Pocono is on the far east side of the Apps and always gets CAD, even at elevation. If they are raining, it will {eventually} be raining in SNE. Mt Pocono sits at about 1800 ft, next to Tobyhanna/ Gouldsboro, which is basically the snow belt of NE PA. Mt. Pocono and Scranton have very different microclimates. The microclimate of Mt. Pocono is similar to NW of Worcester or the Catskills. The Poconos don't have the damming power of the Greens/Adirondacks; the ranges to the west of NH/Mass are much taller and more likely to hold cold air in from Quebec when the mid-level flow is from the SW. I know what I'm talking about because my parents have a vacation house in Lake Como, PA (northern Wayne County)...that area torches on a lot of SW flow events that are snow and ice in New England. Sure, they receive plenty of snow with that elevation but they don't have the microclimate of areas like the Monadnocks or ORH hills because they're farther from high pressure over Quebec and not as protected since the Poconos are lower in elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Yeah I agree with this. It's not clear how well the drier air will drain from the NE... especially with winds a bit more backed than I'd like. May argue for a bit more ice in more distant interior like GC over ORH hills? I'm not sure...it might. If we end up too easterly, then we will be cut off from the cold/dry air source and so would GC. It might be a situation where they hold onto 31-32F icing for an extra hour or two but its still generally inefficient for both areas. Could be fairly brief for both areas if that happens. As the low approaches, we should start to see the winds go more ENE and perhaps NE...but how soon it does that might be critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Great analsys from all. Should be a great nowcast. Amazed at the flucuations from model to model, run to run. The suspence is why it's so IMO facinating. Chaos in realtime. Good-luck to all who "might" get frozen PCN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 AFN/Jaffrey up a degree to 29/22 as of the 9pm update... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 AFN/Jaffrey up a degree to 29/22 as of the 9pm update... These hourly updates from you are going to be brutal. After a brief shot of radiational cooling it's not a surprise temperatures are bumping up a smidge as clouds thicken and winds pick up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 We have a screaming E/SE wind here on the coast already with warming temps. Coastal front will be well northwest, ie. I-84 to I-90 to I-495 corridor. Looking like a serious ice storm for the distant interior with minimal snowfall. I would be fueling up a generator if I lived north of the Pike outside the 495 loop..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 These hourly updates from you are going to be brutal. After a brief shot of radiational cooling it's not a surprise temperatures are bumping up a smidge as clouds thicken and winds pick up a bit. I'm going to bed soon since I have to teach tomorrow so you will be spared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 AFN/Jaffrey up a degree to 29/22 as of the 9pm update... All rain for Mt. Socks? jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 These hourly updates from you are going to be brutal. After a brief shot of radiational cooling it's not a surprise temperatures are bumping up a smidge as clouds thicken and winds pick up a bit. not that it matters down here, but we've bumped from 39 this evening to 43 now...still inching up with E winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 These hourly updates from you are going to be brutal. After a brief shot of radiational cooling it's not a surprise temperatures are bumping up a smidge as clouds thicken and winds pick up a bit. Actually should be in the obs thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm going to bed soon since I have to teach tomorrow so you will be spared. Praise Tebow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Divine intervention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 These hourly updates from you are going to be brutal. After a brief shot of radiational cooling it's not a surprise temperatures are bumping up a smidge as clouds thicken and winds pick up a bit. Nate has been traumatized by growing up in the lower Hudson Valley. We have a screaming E/SE wind here on the coast already with warming temps. Coastal front will be well northwest, ie. I-84 to I-90 to I-495 corridor. Looking like a serious ice storm for the distant interior with minimal snowfall. I would be fueling up a generator if I lived north of the Pike outside the 495 loop..... LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Dews over Maine are in the single digits and below zero. Good source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Nate has been traumatized by growing up in the lower Hudson Valley. LOL. No, I could honestly see Rindge getting less snow this winter than Dobbs Ferry in 10-11 (69.5") and 09-10 (68")...I am traumatized by the fact that it's mid January at 1200' in the Monadnocks and there's not any snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Just a FWIW, but winds started cranking here in the last hour out of the e/se. Temps spiking. All somewhat expected, but the strength of the winds is a bit surprising. NAM torches most everyone in actual SNE in the ML's...lot's of non-snow but it's still been the outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.