Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Wonder if we lose Will and Hunchback tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Wonder if we lose Will and Hunchback tomorrow? Nah, it's going to get too warm for serious ice. I think 1-3" of snow from ORH to the Monadnocks, followed by a brief period of icing, then rain as the surface flow turns more easterly and WAA continues. I'm not bullish on this storm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Wonder if we lose Will and Hunchback tomorrow? No... our squirrels are keeping the ice off the power lines and branches. When do you think the wind kicks in on the coast then up here? We are also bringing the kids to WaWa assuming school is open. That should be a blast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Nah, it's going to get too warm for serious ice. I think 1-3" of snow from ORH to the Monadnocks, followed by a brief period of icing, then rain as the surface flow turns more easterly and WAA continues. I'm not bullish on this storm at all. Probably no big ice, but remember, it was warmer in 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 41/31, I was making a funny. you may start as sleet temporarly, thats what it did down here as the first batch of precip made it to the ground. temp similiar to yours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 you may start as sleet temporarly, thats what it did down here as the first batch of precip made it to the ground. temp similiar to yours any flakes at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The vortex over Western NC resembles a TC on infrared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Probably no big ice, but remember, it was warmer in 2008 The wind was more northeast, I believe, however...and you had a stronger damming high. There was also a lot more QPF in Dec 2008, as in 2-3" QPF. In this storm, we're generally talking about amounts less than 1" QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I feel pretty good about a couple inches of accumulation for God's country, especially followed by a glaze of ice along the spine and east slopes of Berks. Thinking maybe 2-4" for Pete up north. As for areas to the east maybe an inch or 2 for ORH then over the sleet and some ZR. I do think there will be up to 1/4" of ZR for the east slope of the Berks... NAM has a decent freezing rain signal. Cool. I'll take 1-2" any day. BOX extended the 1-3" advisory south into southern ORH county. Cities like Millbury, Sutton, Charlton now under an advisory for 1-3" + a glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The vortex over Western NC resembles a TC on infrared. Yeah its pretty impressive on enhanced water vapor as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Probably no big ice, but remember, it was warmer in 2008 The Euro had a decent amount of ice tomorrow morning but I'm not sure it will happen. We'll need to see the dewpoints drain effectively from SW ME and NH...we just won't know how well that happens for a while longer. The '08 storm had a much better sfc setup for draining dews...however, in the type of setup we have now, its been one of the tougher times to forecast because sometimes when its walking a fine line, the models will miss it and we stay ZR a lot longer...but other times we'll scour out the sfc cold much quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 any flakes at all? nope, sleet and rain, mostly sleet and still doing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The wind was more northeast, I believe, however...and you had a stronger damming high. There was also a lot more QPF in Dec 2008, as in 2-3" QPF. In this storm, we're generally talking about amounts less than 1" QPF... Oh, no doubt less qpf, winds different. But not too warm for you and I, correct? I guess once the wind scours out the surface cold (such as it is...29.4F/25 here now) it would flip. I figure a tenth or 2 of ice on branches...what a pain in the arse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Mount Pocono is 35 F with light rain and a SE wind. Having lived in the Poconos for years, I can say that this bodes quite poorly for all of Southern New England, including the elevated interior. Mt. Pocono is the best downstream location to extrapolate to the Catskills and Berkshires. If its raining at Mt Pocono at the onset, the only front-end snow will be very brief with a quick transition to rain. This site is basically the PA-equivalent of ORH. As an aside, I still have a dusting of snow in the shaded parts of the property from Tuesday night. Looking for the nice low-level convection PVD on SE tomorrow a.m. Congrats to Maine on the snow tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 nope, sleet and rain, mostly sleet and still doing it Well any frozen is a win this year, congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The Euro had a decent amount of ice tomorrow morning but I'm not sure it will happen. We'll need to see the dewpoints drain effectively from SW ME and NH...we just won't know how well that happens for a while longer. The '08 storm had a much better sfc setup for draining dews...however, in the type of setup we have now, its been one of the tougher times to forecast because sometimes when its walking a fine line, the models will miss it and we stay ZR a lot longer...but other times we'll scour out the sfc cold much quicker. I wish the pdfamily meso site could be toggled just to display dewpoints Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 HRRR 22z run accumulated snow through 13z....seems to really like western mass but has ORH getting nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The Euro had a decent amount of ice tomorrow morning but I'm not sure it will happen. We'll need to see the dewpoints drain effectively from SW ME and NH...we just won't know how well that happens for a while longer. The '08 storm had a much better sfc setup for draining dews...however, in the type of setup we have now, its been one of the tougher times to forecast because sometimes when its walking a fine line, the models will miss it and we stay ZR a lot longer...but other times we'll scour out the sfc cold much quicker. Yeah I agree with this. It's not clear how well the drier air will drain from the NE... especially with winds a bit more backed than I'd like. May argue for a bit more ice in more distant interior like GC over ORH hills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Well any frozen is a win this year, congrats. i had 10 inches in october lol,probably my biggest of the year. who would have thought it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Hopefully the mid levels torch and you get rain Your words are hurtful Joe. I may have to report this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 i had 10 inches in october lol,probably my biggest of the year. who would have thought it In New Jersey? Seriously? Yeah, I figured my Oct snow would be my biggest, but was hoping for better than this disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Mount Pocono is 35 F with light rain and a SE wind. Having lived in the Poconos for years, I can say that this bodes quite poorly for all of Southern New England, including the elevated interior. Mt. Pocono is the best downstream location to extrapolate to the Catskills and Berkshires. If its raining at Mt Pocono at the onset, the only front-end snow will be very brief with a quick transition to rain. This site is basically the PA-equivalent of ORH. As an aside, I still have a dusting of snow in the shaded parts of the property from Tuesday night. Looking for the nice low-level convection PVD on SE tomorrow a.m. Congrats to Maine on the snow tomorrow... I don't think this is a fair analysis because the damming high is having much more of an effect in New England than in the Poconos. Once the WAA starts to run into the cold air associated with the 1025mb high over Eastern Quebec, you're going to see a halt in the progress of warm air moving northward. The Poconos are usually a poor spot in these types of set-ups because they're pretty far SW, and Mt Pocono especially. They are also on the west side of the Apps so don't benefit nearly as much from CAD. I am a bit worried about temps though. AFN has clouded over at 28F and ORH is still at 31F. Also, winds are east, not northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 RUC has been running really warm the past two runs. Similar to the nam in that it has like a 1 hour period of snow to rain for this area. Sleet line already near MHT on the RUC at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 In New Jersey? Seriously? Yeah, I figured my Oct snow would be my biggest, but was hoping for better than this disaster NW NJ did very well in the October storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Your words are hurtful Joe. I may have to report this post. What are you thinking for yby? 5"? MRG land should get 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 NW NJ did very well in the October storm. Even my house in Westchester, about 350' elevation, had like 8" or so...and that's less than 10 miles from the Bronx border. That storm was a big hit just outside of NYC. Central Park got 2.9"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I don't think this is a fair analysis because the damming high is having much more of an effect in New England than in the Poconos. Once the WAA starts to run into the cold air associated with the 1025mb high over Eastern Quebec, you're going to see a halt in the progress of warm air moving northward. The Poconos are usually a poor spot in these types of set-ups because they're pretty far SW, and Mt Pocono especially. They are also on the west side of the Apps so don't benefit nearly as much from CAD. I am a bit worried about temps though. AFN has clouded over at 28F and ORH is still at 31F. Also, winds are east, not northeast. Not sure what you're worried about. What are you expecting? 18z runs looked good to me and we're getting a nice drain of dry/cool air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 NW NJ did very well in the October storm. So I see.. some places got over a foot. Neat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 In New Jersey? Seriously? Yeah, I figured my Oct snow would be my biggest, but was hoping for better than this disaster a town 7 miles away from me but 800 ft higher had 19 inches in october. it was a disaster of a storm because of the late leaf drop. numerous trees and branches down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Not sure what you're worried about. What are you expecting? 18z runs looked good to me and we're getting a nice drain of dry/cool air. DP is 23 in ORH, damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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