QcSevereWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 We could even see rain in southern Qc with the friday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Rain to wash away any snow that falls followed by a very cold weekend. SWEET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Friday is a gusty-winds-with-dark-skies-on-the-horizon-turned-to-a-white-out-for-ten-minutes type of day ...for the usual suspects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Rain to wash away any snow that falls followed by a very cold weekend. SWEET. You will have school, deal with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm confused by that map...not sure why they like you're area more then SW NH...but never know I guess. I guess they must feel that the NAM is on to something...still not sure why they had you at 6-8. GC is magical Good answer, Dave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 You will have school, deal with it lol...not if the gfs is right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 lol...not if the gfs is right! Study hard you know the answer to that If question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 It's HRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm not impressed with Friday yet. I think that belongs to upstate NY toward YUL. Maybe there's some GS/PL or FZRA/RA or even a rumbler. Yeah I'm not too excited either. I think it looks a bit too warm for many of us. The best will be in higher elevations in the Greens where QG forcing and oragraphic lift coincides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Big differences between the 18Z runs of the NAM and GFS with regard to precipitation type here in the Berks. NAM has me over to a rain, sleet mix by 9Z, GFS still has me ripping snow at 12Z with an isothermal atmosphere below 800 mb. If GFS is right we may get several inches of snow before changeover. On the other hand, if NAM is right, I'll be lucky to get 5 weenie flakes. I'm favoring a blend of the two models, but putting more weight on the warmer NAM solution. I actually hope I'm wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yeah I'm not too excited either. I think it looks a bit too warm for many of us. The best will be in higher elevations in the Greens where QG forcing and oragraphic lift coincides. Have fun, wind holds? holy wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Have fun, wind holds? holy wind I'm not skiing this weekend... I'm working. Thinking about maybe going up on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm starting to wonder if the models might be blowing it on a potential near warning ice storm scenario amid these Advisory cut outs. 1) Regional temps are sliding back toward 0C, while DPs range from 21-29F across all sites and unofficial 'tweeners. Wet bulb temperatures are probably closer to 29 than 33F this time, due to the fact that pressures are unbalanced on the high side N of the region (due to pp anomaly associated with polar high). This sort of scenario is always under anticipated. 2) The lowest grid is likely not accurately handled regardless of model type when we input saturation into that - ageostrophic flow is likely too weak amid the guidance types once this air mass saturates. Even if not very observed, with higher pp N, it is going to be very difficult to erode out the llv cold. The way that works is, cold dense saturated, homogenous lower boundary layer air mass will flow from meso high toward meso low in the lowest 50 mb of the atmosphere, and this will set up below the inversion at ~ 100mb up. Above that, baroclinic events transpire as though the column on the bottom were not there. If there were not high up there I'd say we get 32-33F along Rt 2 with temps apprroaching 50S of the Pike by mid way through the event. But given to the observation that BL resistence is stacked heading N and set up nearly ideally for ageostrophic drain, I am wondering if we 're missing the boat on this. Hard to think outside the box sometimes with all these pretty model graphics to digest every 3 to 6 hours. If you were in the hot seat, would you forecast warning criteria ice? You seem to allude sometimes that you are the only one that thinks outside the box but what would you actually forecast as opposed to pure speculation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm not skiing this weekend... I'm working. Thinking about maybe going up on Monday? I might be heading up Tuesday, going to fill my truck bed up with PF's snow and spread it on my lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 If you were in the hot seat, would you forecast warning criteria ice? You seem to allude sometimes that you are the only one that thinks outside the box but what would you actually forecast as opposed to pure speculation? I don't see how anything I wrote "alludes" to my being the "only one" who thinks outside the box. It's like you just inserted that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I don't see how anything I wrote "alludes" to my being the "only one" who thinks outside the box. It's like you just inserted that - LOL- well at least answer the question...would you forecast warning criteria ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I don't see how anything I wrote "alludes" to my being the "only one" who thinks outside the box. It's like you just inserted that - Sorry misinterpreted that. Thought you were saying we couldn't think outside the box with the constant 3-6 hour model data. I just agree with Capecodwx that it has been discussed over the past 18 pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Well, good luck to all those with a chance, and pray for us lowlanders that we may see a flurry later friday. Good luck, God Bless, Goodnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I might be heading up Tuesday, going to fill my truck bed up with PF's snow and spread it on my lawn. Do you see any icing NE CT hills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 [ Hello. 30/21, clear skies overhead right now and the stars are bright. Nice temp drop hopefully. Like the map. Smoke from the chimney is indicating snow incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Smells like snow This has to be a tough forecast for those of us on the borderline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 All are waiting with bated breath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 All are waiting with bated breath I'm going to stake my professional reputation on this and say I think it's going to perform better than expected. thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 All are waiting with bated breath Its like sitting in the waiting room waiting for the doctor to come talk to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm going to stake my professional reputation on this and say I think it's going to perform better than expected. thank you. Most certainly, gon snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Its like sitting in the waiting room waiting for the doctor proctologist to come talk to you worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 worse Lol sad to see the state of this winter. Had such promise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 "The lump is not cancerous. You're going to be fine! ... why are you crying?" "The NAM *sob* just came in *sob* wwaaaarrrrmmmerrr!" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Oh I didn't see it replaced with proctologist lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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