dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 They were? No, I was kidding, There great, I can't zoom on NE on SV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 That looks like it could be ripping aggregates here for a few hours centered around 09z...probably just flipping over around 11-12z. The weenie maps on wunderground gave me like 5" of snow...but I think those are run from Kevin's basement. It does have that classic icing signature for ORH hills though after the flip...it has that finger of below freezing sfc temps coming down the spine to near Hubbdave or just south...it usually doesn't extend it far enough south...resolution issues once we start narrowing the ridges. If we can keep the sfc wind to the left of 060, then it could be prolonged. If those maps were right, I would think you could pull closer to 3", but that warm layer has me thinking closer to 1.5"-2" Look at the 850 temps and even the 850-700 thickness line up in Maine. Hold CAD signal right there..even into the mid levels. I wish the NAM and SREFs agreed. having them closer to your side would have me feel better, but anyways..hope you rip for a couple of hours. The vortmax looks kind of strong and is probably tugging the warmth nwd, but I think we'll have a good 3-4hr period of strong lift as the snow moves in. Good luck. But yeah, I thought icing signal too. I love the detail in those maps...it may not have it down precisely, but it shows you the orientation of what you would expect with that dip into Winchendon and places like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yeah it did...N ORH county and into the Monadnocks would get more snow than I currently think if its right. Esp N ORH county...I already thought Monads were probably good for advisory snow, but they might be approaching low end warning criteria on the Euro. Hubbdave-land is where it might conflict the most with my thinking. It would give him solid advisory snow, but I'm guessing we'll see the MLs warm a little faster than it has it. One of the keys to its snowier solution is having it really rip the precip in early...its probably snowing here by 1-2am on the Euro. Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Congrats! I'm not expecting more than 1-2" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 seems like one of those marginal icing events where mby is 32.7 for 4-6 hours, while most icing is limited to ~600'+. Meanwhile its rotting at 31 at ORH and 1/8" glaze. regardless I wont expect much more than an inch of snow and a thin glaze down in the lowlands lol Hopefully there will be significant icing near the center of town. I could use a day off. Hopefully the srefs and nam tick cooler in a few minutes. Scott, you keep mentioning that you think it looks good for icing in the ORH hills. So do you think below say 700-800' it will be just a cool rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Congrats! I think I will get less snow thursday than Oct 27, which was not the big storm...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Hows RI looking for this atm. Is it just going to be a little bit of Ice, or can that change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Welp - the pattern has changed! EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 122 PM EST WED JAN 11 2012 VALID 12Z SAT JAN 14 2012 - 12Z WED JAN 18 2012 TELECONNECTIONS WITH STRONG POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE BERING SEA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA RESPECTIVELY TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD FAVOR A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH STRONG ZONAL FLOW FROM ASIA ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO THE U.S. WEST AND EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS KEEPS BELOW AVG HTS AND COLD WET CONDITIONS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGHER HTS ARE FORECAST BY MEANS AND TELECONNECTIONS ACROSS ERN CONUS. Good job - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Welp - the pattern has changed! EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 122 PM EST WED JAN 11 2012 VALID 12Z SAT JAN 14 2012 - 12Z WED JAN 18 2012 TELECONNECTIONS WITH STRONG POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE BERING SEA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA RESPECTIVELY TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD FAVOR A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH STRONG ZONAL FLOW FROM ASIA ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO THE U.S. WEST AND EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS KEEPS BELOW AVG HTS AND COLD WET CONDITIONS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGHER HTS ARE FORECAST BY MEANS AND TELECONNECTIONS ACROSS ERN CONUS. Good job - That still gives us shot with the gradient, no? With plenty of cold air in Canada that could press down? grasping for straws am I? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 lol slush-1" I hope the BOX map verifies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 That still gives us shot with the gradient, no? With plenty of cold air in Canada that could press down? grasping for straws am I? Yeah... probably... I thought it was funny because I bet with a fairly high degree of confidence that which is described by NCEP is not the pattern change people had in mind Interesting observation in the PV/stratosphere. New warm node currently punching into the observation graph, and the associated u-vector anomaly is showing this one has having more vertical depth - emerging weak in the 30-50mb levels, but gaining strength. This -AO mode out in time is gaining momentum based on that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Hows RI looking for this atm. Is it just going to be a little bit of Ice, or can that change. welcome aboard, where in RI? but yea expect rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yeah... probably... I thought it was funny because I bet with a fairly high degree of confidence that which is described by NCEP is not the pattern change people had in mind Interesting observation in the PV/stratosphere. New warm node currently punching into the observation graph, and the associated u-vector anomaly is showing this one has having more vertical depth - emerging weak in the 30-50mb levels, but gaining strength. This -AO mode out in time is gaining momentum based on that - Can someone point me to some literature regarding stratosphere/PV/impacts on the General Circulation, if possible, impacts on AO/NAO modes? I really have no knowledge here aside from "SSWs are good for the East", lol. Would love to sink into a technical paper (or a few)... Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 That still gives us shot with the gradient, no? With plenty of cold air in Canada that could press down? grasping for straws am I? Eastern Canada torches pretty quickly after the middle of next week. So there is a 1 week window but it looks very meh. One of the more spectacular failures in pattern change signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Can someone point me to some literature regarding stratosphere/PV/impacts on the General Circulation, if possible, impacts on AO/NAO modes? I really have no knowledge here aside from "SSWs are good for the East", lol. Would love to sink into a technical paper (or a few)... Thanks in advance. all sorts of links on the main page under the strato warming thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 welcome aboard, where in RI? but yea expect rain Thanks, I'm from Cumberland.. Yea figured that, models haven't been looking too hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 all sorts of links on the main page under the strato warming thread. Great, thanks... meteo is more of a hobby for me these days but still like to be up to speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Thanks, I'm from Cumberland.. Yea figured that, models haven't been looking too hot. actually being east and in Cumberland you have a shot of an inch or so with some ice, you might be dicey Thursday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 18z NAM is colder at 09z than the 12z run was...looks like it sped up the precip too which isn't a surprise considering how slow it was on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Toaster time in Tolland !!! Joe and Wiz counting days to happy spring and twister season TollandKev Kevin Weather sucks 8 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 actually being east and in Cumberland you have a shot of an inch or so with some ice, you might be dicey Thursday AM. Sounds like a fun drive at 7am to Attleboro. Might get some sort of delay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yeah... probably... I thought it was funny because I bet with a fairly high degree of confidence that which is described by NCEP is not the pattern change people had in mind Interesting observation in the PV/stratosphere. New warm node currently punching into the observation graph, and the associated u-vector anomaly is showing this one has having more vertical depth - emerging weak in the 30-50mb levels, but gaining strength. This -AO mode out in time is gaining momentum based on that - which would do 2 things, even with an alaska vortex and -epo: 1. push the gradient further south, at least potentially.... 2. increase the chances of popping a -NAO yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 nam looks the same as 12z...maybe slightly cooler but not much. Still warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Def a bit colder than the 12z run...but its still overall running quite a bit warmer than other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 GYX has issued WSW, Point and click has 6-11" for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 12z -- pressures are higher across New England, slightly cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The NAM has pretty cruddy looking omega...I'm sure that's part of why it warms faster in the MLs than other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Tip's ad-induced virus is about the most exciting nugget in this thread. Speaking of which, I'm a donator... why the F am I getting advertisements??? Some people failed to get put into the donating group automatically. You should be all set now. Fixed CapeCodWeather too. If anyone else who donated is seeing ads, PM me and I'll fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Eastern Canada torches pretty quickly after the middle of next week. So there is a 1 week window but it looks very meh. One of the more spectacular failures in pattern change signals. I've decided to ignore this response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 warmer, lower pressures by 18z lol. Dang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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