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Thursday's storm ...Rain, snow, ice, wind (part 2)


OKpowdah

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There is definitely a warm layer near 800mb on the euro. But still seems like it tries to giove ORH like 2-2.5" or so taking it into account. I like to think the warm tongue sometimes is underplayed, but the precip races in too. Looks like extreme nrn areas of mass get good advisory snow.

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You still owe me for Dec 23 :axe: (jk)

I am thinking ice/sleet will be the bigger issue. Depends on how quick the precip sets in. 1-2am would make me happy

I'd expect 1-3" of snow followed by ice at this point...if we come in a little snowier, then nice surprise, but I don't think we should expect it.

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Ripping ice 25 kts NE winds?

Lol...that would be fun. We won't have those winds I don't think. The vector is a little more out of the east too which could limit the duration of ice, but we'll just have to wait and see until we are closer. These are the harder type ZR events to forecast because they can go either way...slightly underdone CAD on the models can lead to an 8 hour glazing event or it could just be a 2 hour glaze and some 33F rain.

Its not an ideal icing setup, but the threat is definitely there.

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Dom, what's up? I see your back, hubbdave was asking where you were lately. Good luck with snow IYBY

Ha...just been lurking mostly with the lack of interesting weather. Haven't really had anything worth posting about weather-wise since October. I just want enough to keep things white for a few days.

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Will, verbatim what is the euro looking like for here?

Also, what's your thinking?

Advisory snow there I would go with. 2-4"/3-5" or so assuming you are above 500 feet which you said you were at one point. Lower down might have a bit of BL issues to contend with.

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Lol...that would be fun. We won't have those winds I don't think. The vector is a little more out of the east too which could limit the duration of ice, but we'll just have to wait and see until we are closer. These are the harder type ZR events to forecast because they can go either way...slightly underdone CAD on the models can lead to an 8 hour glazing event or it could just be a 2 hour glaze and some 33F rain.

Its not an ideal icing setup, but the threat is definitely there.

With the Euros tendency to over do surface temps it certainly is close for you elevated guys for a good ice event if you do not dump snow for 3 hours, lots going on in your neck of the woods.

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Lol...that would be fun. We won't have those winds I don't think. The vector is a little more out of the east too which could limit the duration of ice, but we'll just have to wait and see until we are closer. These are the harder type ZR events to forecast because they can go either way...slightly underdone CAD on the models can lead to an 8 hour glazing event or it could just be a 2 hour glaze and some 33F rain.

Its not an ideal icing setup, but the threat is definitely there.

seems like one of those marginal icing events where mby is 32.7 for 4-6 hours, while most icing is limited to ~600'+. Meanwhile its rotting at 31 at ORH and 1/8" glaze. regardless I wont expect much more than an inch of snow and a thin glaze down in the lowlands lol

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BTW, those maps go from 06z to 18z.

That looks like it could be ripping aggregates here for a few hours centered around 09z...probably just flipping over around 11-12z. The weenie maps on wunderground gave me like 5" of snow...but I think those are run from Kevin's basement.

It does have that classic icing signature for ORH hills though after the flip...it has that finger of below freezing sfc temps coming down the spine to near Hubbdave or just south...it usually doesn't extend it far enough south...resolution issues once we start narrowing the ridges. If we can keep the sfc wind to the left of 060, then it could be prolonged.

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