Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I don't think I'd change my forecast of 1-3" followed by icing. GFS def had a bit more snow than the NAM...the NAM was almost snowless here...mostly because it took forever to get the precip in here. Most non-NAM models agree on the snow lasting until roughly 11-12z with about 0.25-0.35" of qpf falling in that time. I'd probably slice that a bit as the sleet can often come in quick, so I wouldn't go advisory snow here. But if I had to believe the NAM, I'd almost go with ZR off the bat after maybe an hour of snow. I guess that is the difference I'm talking about. Seems right. If the Euro caves warmer than you probably have your answer versus sticking with just the GFS at that point. If it stays cold, forecast looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Well then they must have been rain storms or very far out to sea. The only one that went too far south for much snow in northern NY or NE was the pre-halloween event. Any other events that went south certainly didn't give us in southern or central NY/NE any snowfall. Also wrong. This is a post lacking geographic persepctive. A number of storms have verified SOUTH and EAST of the latest model trends. Esp. when viewed from the ADK/Northen VT perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yeah, but in all reality, I seriously doubt that Charlemont will see the same snow/ice accumulations as Hartford or BDL. ...so take it with a grain of salt, you know? ...it's all about the net gain, and as long as the ground is white instead of brown at the end of this, I'll be thrilled. Agree on the bolded. With respect to the other, if there's going to be a difference of any significance between the CT zones and GC/NORH, they'd be better served going with either two advisories or just not provide details on accum and just use hazard types. Whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Seems right. If the Euro caves warmer than you probably have your answer versus sticking with just the GFS at that point. If it stays cold, forecast looks good. I don't think the euro will go much warmer. It may warm a bit, but at this stage...unless there is a huge fail in low placement...any little fluctuations could be a combo of timing, lift, and wiggles in low pressure. I think for the most part..everything is set. It bothers me to see the SREFs so meager in the snow dept so we could see more IP than we think down here. I figured 1.7" was a decent number for him last night..still seems ok I guess. I'm sort of on the side watching as a cheerleader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I don't think the euro will go much warmer. It may warm a bit, but at this stage...unless there is a huge fail in low placement...any little fluctuations could be a combo of timing, lift, and wiggles in low pressure. I think for the most part..everything is set. It bothers me to see the SREFs so meager in the snow dept so we could see more IP than we think down here. I figured 1.7" was a decent number for him last night..still seems ok I guess. I'm sort of on the side watching as a cheerleader. The hardest part of the forecast is trying to figure out how much icing there will be and how long it lasts before we creep up to 33F. The snow forecast is "difficult" in the sense that its hard to say if we get 0.8" of snow or 2.2"...but in reality the sensible wx difference isn't much between those two amounts...its the icing I'm struggling with more and how long it lasts. Conventional wisdom on icing says that it holds on for a long time over the elevated hills as long as we are keeping that low along the south coast and into SE MA or near the Cape....but I think a lot will depend on how efficiently we drain the cold air tonight. We have dewpoints near 0F in southern ME right now, so if they are drawn further SW, then that could set the stage for prolonged ice...if we don't, then it could be the type of thing where we only ice for 3 hours or something and then go to the 33F rain obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The hardest part of the forecast is trying to figure out how much icing there will be and how long it lasts before we creep up to 33F. The snow forecast is "difficult" in the sense that its hard to say if we get 0.8" of snow or 2.2"...but in reality the sensible wx difference isn't much between those two amounts...its the icing I'm struggling with more and how long it lasts. Conventional wisdom on icing says that it holds on for a long time over the elevated hills as long as we are keeping that low along the south coast and into SE MA or near the Cape....but I think a lot will depend on how efficiently we drain the cold air tonight. We have dewpoints near 0F in southern ME right now, so if they are drawn further SW, then that could set the stage for prolonged ice...if we don't, then it could be the type of thing where we only ice for 3 hours or something and then go to the 33F rain obs. The Pros are obviously having the high pressure ne of us and having the source region in Maine. I do like having the high just ne of Toot. The one thing that I didn't like is the winds just off the deck..like 950mb. I feel like with the low ticking a bit west a bit and the high retreating, instead of ENE flow at 950, it's more easterly. This may be more of an issue for your area and not further north into ORH county, since they have latitude. I think with more erly winds, it will help drag in slightly warmer air at the level..especially at your latitude. It's only takes a degree or two to make a difference. But if the winds stay ne at the surface and you're bringing down good wetbulb air..it might not matter. I was just thinking about your area. I'm starting to feel like nrn ORH and out into the nrn Berks coulf have a pretty good ice storm. And yeah you probably are going to have to wait and see how well you advect down tonight. At least it's night time to help things out, given we have no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The hardest part of the forecast is trying to figure out how much icing there will be and how long it lasts before we creep up to 33F. The snow forecast is "difficult" in the sense that its hard to say if we get 0.8" of snow or 2.2"...but in reality the sensible wx difference isn't much between those two amounts...its the icing I'm struggling with more and how long it lasts. Conventional wisdom on icing says that it holds on for a long time over the elevated hills as long as we are keeping that low along the south coast and into SE MA or near the Cape....but I think a lot will depend on how efficiently we drain the cold air tonight. We have dewpoints near 0F in southern ME right now, so if they are drawn further SW, then that could set the stage for prolonged ice...if we don't, then it could be the type of thing where we only ice for 3 hours or something and then go to the 33F rain obs. The drain's going to have to overcome a pretty high starting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The drain's going to have to overcome a pretty high starting point. You'll drain and radiate and wetbulb. You shouldn't worry too much about the surface until the end whwre you may pop to 33 or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The drain's going to have to overcome a pretty high starting point. Look at the dewpoints more than anything...temps are currently being diurnally influenced...but they will drop back pretty sharply around sunset. All guidance agrees on temps being in the 20s tonight...if they aren't then we may have to reconsider the icing potential...but I don't really see a reason they won't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocket Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 ...but I think a lot will depend on how efficiently we drain the cold air tonight. We have dewpoints near 0F in southern ME right now, so if they are drawn further SW, then that could set the stage for prolonged ice... Is there a way to predict this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 You'll drain and radiate and wetbulb. You shouldn't worry too much about the surface until the end whwre you may pop to 33 or something. I got your message on ice here Scott.. so you think there is a 0% chance for here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 You'll drain and radiate and wetbulb. You shouldn't worry too much about the surface until the end whwre you may pop to 33 or something. I'll accept the drain and wetbulb. As far as radiating, not too much here. My guess is that the ORH hills will fare better than the GC ones. I think being 50 miles closer to the source in Maine will make a significant difference in such a touch and go scenario. But, what do I know..... 30.5/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Look at the dewpoints more than anything...temps are currently being diurnally influenced...but they will drop back pretty sharply around sunset. All guidance agrees on temps being in the 20s tonight...if they aren't then we may have to reconsider the icing potential...but I don't really see a reason they won't be. Thanks, Will. Noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Just wow has this surgically become annoying.. Not speaking to the far interior or central or northern New England, but this 12z NAM has completed eradicated any cold profile for this event for the BOS point on the FRH. With the exception of one or two inconsequential…barely noticeable noodles mixed in at the very beginning, the 900mb level temp soars to +6C almost immediately. 0 vibe that correlates with anything that was offered 2 days ago. Synoptic restraint of polar high is rarely yet completely not factorable. This is New England - 1032mb polar highs don't just get dislodged unless it is the winter of 2011-2012 it would seem. Haha. This is nothing but rain the way this is looking for most. Followed by a modifying arctic blast…then another warm up with rain at some point there after…rince, repeat. Pattern has changed, alright, to one that offers little if any sensible difference locally being the rub. The AO is still falling in the means ...at some point I believe we'll cross a threshold where the westerlies latitude is forced to collapses... Also, the MJO is tantilizing flirting with Phase 7 now so it's plausible that the Pac could enter a better construct at some point over the next 2 weeks despite last night's 21-gun GEF's PNA solute that's blowing a hole in the hearts of the winter weather enthusiast at this time. What do they call this kind of system again? Oh yeah - a smack the back of the sunburned soldier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I got your message on ice here Scott.. so you think there is a 0% chance for here? No I never said 0%. You'll have some, but I don't think you'll get like a half inch or something. Probably a few inches of snow and then some ice..tenth of an inch or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'll accept the drain and wetbulb. As far as radiating, not too much here. My guess is that the ORH hills will fare better than the GC ones. I think being 50 miles closer to the source in Maine will make a significant difference in such a touch and go scenario. But, what do I know..... 30.5/22 Well everyone radiates by definition, you just don't radiate well...lol. What I meant was typical nighttime cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The 850 low goes to our west..we can't have icing..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The 850 low goes to our west..we can't have icing..lol. huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 huh? It was a joke from the Dec '08 icestorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It was a joke from the Dec '08 icestorm. oh ok. i was confused there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The 850 low goes to our west..we can't have icing..lol. Thats for sure no one would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 oh ok. i was confused there. Someone mentioned that as a reason and also the 850 temps getting too warm. The rest is history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Someone mentioned that as a reason and also the 850 temps getting too warm. The rest is history. At the peak of that, I think we got to +10C at 850, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 At the peak of that, I think we got to +10C at 850, lol. And Ekster was in flip flops. I'm just joking around..don't want the person to get mad. It was a true learning experience for myself and I'm sure others. The art of icing up like a mofo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Big, big ice coming into Charlemont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 And Ekster was in flip flops. I'm just joking around..don't want the person to get mad. It was a true learning experience for myself and I'm sure others. The art of icing up like a mofo. In that event, What were the surface temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm simply amazed at how tough it has been to change this pattern even when globally things start moving. Winters have personalities it seems. Of course, one can hold out the hope that ours will change at some point like last year's but in the opposite direction. But the flips of 2006-07 are quite rare. Patterns moderate but very rarely do they go night and day like that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 In that event, What were the surface temps? Well there was that one chart Will showed that morning, but the coldest spots didn't show up because nobody had power...lol. It was between 28-30 for most spots I believe. But the air was never totally saturated and constantly advecting in lower TD air from the northeast. So this did two things. Number 1, you had a continuous source of cold air. The latent heat never built up enough to warm the atmosphere because it was constantly being removed. It was sent to Kevin's house..lol. Number 2, having a t-td spread of a few degrees along with 20-25kt winds will help with evaporational cooling. So putting it all together, you had the most perfect setup for icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Well there was that one chart Will showed that morning, but the coldest spots didn't show up because nobody had power...lol. It was between 28-30 for most spots I believe. But the air was never totally saturated and constantly advecting in lower TD air from the northeast. So this did two things. Number 1, you had a continuous source of cold air. The latent heat never built up enough to warm the atmosphere because it was constantly being removed. It was sent to Kevin's house..lol. Number 2, having a t-td spread of a few degrees along with 20-25kt winds will help with evaporational cooling. So putting it all together, you had the most perfect setup for icing. While Ray and I got 33F and rain. I doubt I see anything with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Well there was that one chart Will showed that morning, but the coldest spots didn't show up because nobody had power...lol. It was between 28-30 for most spots I believe. But the air was never totally saturated and constantly advecting in lower TD air from the northeast. So this did two things. Number 1, you had a continuous source of cold air. The latent heat never built up enough to warm the atmosphere because it was constantly being removed. It was sent to Kevin's house..lol. Number 2, having a t-td spread of a few degrees along with 20-25kt winds will help with evaporational cooling. So putting it all together, you had the most perfect setup for icing. We were at around 29-30 for the whole event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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