Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Loon, Attitash, Burke, Sunday River, all do very well. Creepy warm layer may try to sneak into parts of VT, but northern 1/2 of NH and the ski areas of Maine look to get their first real good thump of the ski season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 12z Gfs is actually colder here then 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I think I need to revise that pit GIF to include Will, Hubba, moneyshotmike and myself (among others) ... could you include the blond women gif? I'd love to see her go over the cliff, maybe with the snowman and the weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 gfs is surprisingly colder than the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 12z Gfs is actually colder here then 06z Take that Forky and Bates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Here's a new map from our friends at GYX. Saw that earlier this am, Check out the point and click............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I think I need to revise that pit GIF to include Will, Hubba, moneyshotmike and myself (among others) ... GFS might have us with our fingertips on the edge trying to pull ourselves back out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 looking at the GFS and NAM, you'd almost want to switch those two model runs. they look the way we'd expect the other to look. you can see a good CAD signal on the GFS. surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 GFS a bit colder for GC as well. Would mean a somewhat longer period of frozen before flipping to freezing and liquid, which could mean a few inches of snow and sleet accumulation for central and northern Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 GFS looks like it has better lift and better dynamic cooling. I think it's part of the reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Here's a new map from our friends at GYX. Bit of a gradient from the coast to Rt 1 from Bath to Camden, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Soundings are still pretty warm on the GFS, but yeah Phil...you would not think the the GFS could be colder. I don't know..I don't think the outcome is much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Either way..still looks icy for parts of ORH county and MPM..whether he likes it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Soundings are still pretty warm on the GFS, but yeah Phil...you would not think the the GFS could be colder. I don't know..I don't think the outcome is much different. yeah probably not overall. i'm just impressed at how well it holds in the low level cold. pretty interesting given its meh resolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The CAD isn't the issue, that's going to be there for the elevated interior...it's the warming aloft and how quickly folks transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Saw that earlier this am, Check out the point and click............ Ouch. Pretty much everything except for locusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 GFS is probably still marginal for the folks south of here but it would make a diifernce here for the ones that are sitting on the razor wire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 GFS 2M temps are cooler than the NAM..lol. Looking at the lower leves. At 950mb, the NAM almost tries to pop a weak low somewhere near RI or along the soth coast, while the GFS is weaker and further west with it. They look similar at 950mb too. So other than a spurious low trying to inject more marine air...not sure why NAM temps are warmer than GFS at the surface. I'd probably take the GFS surface temps and cool them a couple of ticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Ouch. Pretty much everything except for locusts. I guess they know as much as the rest of us right now, We are going to need the euro to settle this.......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I have to admit, its funny seeing the tone of the board change with each model run. NAM comes out and everyone cancels the event and then GFS comes out and people are saying "well...not that bad I guess"....lol. I think the NAM is too slow with its precip shield...its much slower than other guidance. I think icing is definitely going to be an issue for a time in the elevated interior as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I have to admit, its funny seeing the tone of the board change with each model run. NAM comes out and everyone cancels the event and then GFS comes out and people are saying "well...not that bad I guess"....lol. I think the NAM is too slow with its precip shield...its much slower than other guidance. I think icing is definitely going to be an issue for a time in the elevated interior as well. I still don't think the GFS changes much on the snow thinking. It torces aloft pretty quickly. It just reinforces the idea of icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Wow, we're talking some pretty decent winds late Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 If helps people like Brian and even Socks because it delays the warming aloft a bit...or should I say..fights the mid level warming with strong lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 gfs on friday looks very potent with good amount of qpf! should be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 This sure sounds ominous. lol NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA- WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA- EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...CHARLEMONT... GREENFIELD...ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL... LAWRENCE...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON... SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...AYER 1106 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * LOCATIONS...CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND ICE. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH...ALONG WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. * TIMING...LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL COULD DEVELOP FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE DUE TO SLIPPERY UNTREATED SURFACES. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The warming aloft is killing the snow potential but atleast the trees will be sparkly in alot of places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I still don't think the GFS changes much on the snow thinking. It torces aloft pretty quickly. It just reinforces the idea of icing. I don't think I'd change my forecast of 1-3" followed by icing. GFS def had a bit more snow than the NAM...the NAM was almost snowless here...mostly because it took forever to get the precip in here. Most non-NAM models agree on the snow lasting until roughly 11-12z with about 0.25-0.35" of qpf falling in that time. I'd probably slice that a bit as the sleet can often come in quick, so I wouldn't go advisory snow here. But if I had to believe the NAM, I'd almost go with ZR off the bat after maybe an hour of snow. I guess that is the difference I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 your area looks primed for a pretty good icing event i think I don't think I'd change my forecast of 1-3" followed by icing. GFS def had a bit more snow than the NAM...the NAM was almost snowless here...mostly because it took forever to get the precip in here. Most non-NAM models agree on the snow lasting until roughly 11-12z with about 0.25-0.35" of qpf falling in that time. I'd probably slice that a bit as the sleet can often come in quick, so I wouldn't go advisory snow here. But if I had to believe the NAM, I'd almost go with ZR off the bat after maybe an hour of snow. I guess that is the difference I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I don't think I'd change my forecast of 1-3" followed by icing. GFS def had a bit more snow than the NAM...the NAM was almost snowless here...mostly because it took forever to get the precip in here. Most non-NAM models agree on the snow lasting until roughly 11-12z with about 0.25-0.35" of qpf falling in that time. I'd probably slice that a bit as the sleet can often come in quick, so I wouldn't go advisory snow here. But if I had to believe the NAM, I'd almost go with ZR off the bat after maybe an hour of snow. I guess that is the difference I'm talking about. Even before the QPF on the NAM comes in here, it's warmer in the 950-850 layer than the GFS. That's what is kind of weird...starts out warmer ahead of it. The models are also advecting moisture in off the water. I could see weenie snowgrains or light snow happening before the main stuff comes in here. Seems like ORH upslope may help with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 This sure sounds ominous. lol INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...CHARLEMONT... * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH...ALONG WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. * TIMING...LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL COULD DEVELOP FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE DUE TO SLIPPERY UNTREATED SURFACES. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON Yeah, but in all reality, I seriously doubt that Charlemont will see the same snow/ice accumulations as Hartford or BDL. ...so take it with a grain of salt, you know? ...it's all about the net gain, and as long as the ground is white instead of brown at the end of this, I'll be thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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