CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 As we said...the risk is always warmer. No blocking and srn stream vorts suck. But Tip says I'm pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Looks like I'll get my rain. Never forget the fundamentals.. No blocking and no hp and moderating antecedent cold Very doubtful you are going to see rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 As we said...the risk is always warmer. No blocking and srn stream vorts suck. But Tip says I'm pessimistic. So true. 12z nam paints a New England rain event unless it's northern New England (northern as in hello Canada). What a winter this has been, and we can't say it's early any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 As we said...the risk is always warmer. No blocking and srn stream vorts suck. But Tip says I'm pessimistic. there was plenty of reason to think warmer could win out. the only real large-scale difference with this event vs. all the others is some semblance of rising pressures to our NNE helping with some low level cold drainage. otherwise, a lot of the same issues at play that have been there since november really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Very doubtful you are going to see rain Nam gfs srefs all appear to give me some rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 You mean 12z? I meant hr24 of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Nam gfs srefs all appear to give me some rain It would seem to be on the end after the low has gone by to the NE, Yeah the 850's warm but most of the precip is already gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 the nam moved the post frontal precip to canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 How do you say clusterf*ck in Spanish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Now is the winter of our discontent / Made glorious summer by this son of Litchfield Libations and Summertime Blizz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Now is the winter of our discontent / Made glorious summer by this son of Litchfield Libations and Summertime Blizz Reality bites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 So true. 12z nam paints a New England rain event unless it's northern New England (northern as in hello Canada). What a winter this has been, and we can't say it's early any more. wrong simply wrong. warm air aloft doesn't translate into plain rain for much of CNE and NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 what few storms we've had this winter have all verified further N and W with snow/frozen and underperformed in that dept as well...seasonal trend.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 wrong simply wrong. warm air aloft doesn't translate into plain rain for much of CNE and NNE We likely Ping to some degree before the dry slot. This could be a thanksgiving like gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 What a disaster. And the Friday event, which had been looking like a nice little bonus (or consolation) snow has trended a lot warmer with very little precip on the cold side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I think freezing rain is going to be an issue for alot of people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 What a disaster. And the Friday event, which had been looking like a nice little bonus (or consolation) snow has trended a lot warmer with very little precip on the cold side. That was always for the mtns. That should have been thought about outside of the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I hope some of you northern folks can score some significant snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 the nam moved the post frontal precip to canada you almost had me with the quick troll job, until a friend pointed it out, nice try spoony spoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStick Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I have to drive from Manchester to Hyannis, Ma in the morning, what time should I leave? I have to be in Hyannis by 8:15! I'm guessing a mostly wet ride? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 you almost had me with the quick troll job, until a friend pointed it out, nice try spoony spoon His little sour grapes troll jobs are lame. Sad really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 what few storms we've had this winter have all verified further N and W with snow/frozen and underperformed in that dept as well...seasonal trend.... Also wrong. This is a post lacking geographic persepctive. A number of storms have verified SOUTH and EAST of the latest model trends. Esp. when viewed from the ADK/Northen VT perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 BTV going Advisory Event tomorrow for 3-7" of snow. Then another Advisory Event on Friday. ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS STRONG CLOSED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF A POTENT VORT MAX AND CLOSED UPPER CIRCULATION...ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AT TIMES ON FRIDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN QUESTION FRIDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY TEMPS RATHER MILD TO BEGIN WITH...BUT WITH RAPID COOLING ALOFT DURING THE DAY...LOOK FOR ANY MIX TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. ANOTHER ADVISORY TYPE EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY. Then Brooke Taber threw us a bone here on Friday night/Saturday upslope potential. I met him last summer here in Stowe and we we always talk about the snowfall in the mtns via email, he knows what happens in this area with good ratios and NW flow. THE CYCLONIC NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW WL RESULT IN MTNS SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE GREEN MTNS OF VT. OVERALL...QPF AMOUNTS WL RANGE BTWN 0.05 TO 0.20"...BUT GIVEN A HIGH FLUFF FACTOR WITH COOLING THERMAL PROFILES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED A FEW LOCATIONS LIKE JAY PEAK TO STOWE RECEIVE 5 OR 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW BY SATURDAY AFTN. LATEST NAM12 SHOWS FAVORABLE 1000 TO 700MB RH PROFILES...STRONG UVVS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST 85H WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNTS ALONG WITH AREAS OF ENHANCED QPF FIELDS. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING 85H TEMPS UNDER STRONG LLVL CAA WL HELP TO SQUEEZE REMAIN MOISTURE FROM ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 wrong simply wrong. warm air aloft doesn't translate into plain rain for much of CNE and NNE chill simply chill. Lol. This may not be plain rain or all rain, but it is largely rain for most of New England outside of northern areas which is my original post. There are never absolutes and elevation and other factors and exceptions may come to play, but the fact is the 12z nam shows this as largely a rain event for most. Boy, people are getting snow deprived and testy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 We likely Ping to some degree before the dry slot. This could be a thanksgiving like gradient. The Con area is in the 4-8 inch zone in the zones. All of the other areas to our immediate w, nw and ne are 3-5 or 4-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 chill simply chill. Lol. This may not be plain rain or all rain, but it is largely rain for most of New England outside of northern areas which is my original post. There are never absolutes and elevation and other factors and exceptions may come to play, but the fact is the 12z nam shows this as largely a rain event for most. Boy, people are getting snow deprived and testy. still wrong simply wrong. you said Canada and all of new england in your post. The nam doesn't show largely a rain event for most of CNE and NNE. It shows a mostly frozen event for a large chunk of New England. Yes the panic is setting in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I think I need to revise that pit GIF to include Will, Hubba, moneyshotmike and myself (among others) ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I would wait until all the 12z guidance is in before jumping off any cliffs, I will take whatever snow comes, Its better then the .03" i have now............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I would wait until all the 12z guidance is in before jumping off any cliffs, I will take whatever snow comes, Its bettern then the .03" i have now............ Here's a new map from our friends at GYX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Whenever I take the side of the Euro, the Euro seems to go up and smoke. GFS doesn't look that bad, little movements here and there but not that much different than the 0z yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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