ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Euro came in a shade colder than 12z...a little better for north of the pike for front end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 euro looks colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Euro came in a shade colder than 12z...a little better for north of the pike for front end snow. Sweet...I'd take 2" and run. Is it slow like the nam...not starting until 10-11z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Sweet...I'd take 2" and run. Is it slow like the nam...not starting until 10-11z? It looks faster than the NAM...prob around 09z start, maybe even 08z. It has the 0.01 qpf line at the CT/MA border NE of Kevin by 06z...and then we are near 0.25" at 12z and still snowing...so Euro would probably be like 2-4"...but I'm still bracing for a bit of a warmer tick...but its good it didn't go warmer this run...that keep me confident we'll get a couple inches maybe on the front end once it ticks back warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Euro came in a shade colder than 12z...a little better for north of the pike for front end snow. I hate that term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It looks faster than the NAM...prob around 09z start, maybe even 08z. It has the 0.01 qpf line at the CT/MA border NE of Kevin by 06z...and then we are near 0.25" at 12z and still snowing...so Euro would probably be like 2-4"...but I'm still bracing for a bit of a warmer tick...but its good it didn't go warmer this run...that keep me confident we'll get a couple inches maybe on the front end once it ticks back warmer. Thanks Will...appreciate it. Off to bed...have to be up in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I hate that term. North and west of 495 and especially outside of 128 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 how does the synoptic snow look for NYS with the upper level low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I hate that term. Me too since I live 2 miles south of the pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 how does the synoptic snow look for NYS with the upper level low? Heavy rain for BUF...just not quite cold enough...heavy heavy rain. In all seriousness...it looks like about 2-3" for BUF from the synoptic low..maybe some brief LES behind it, but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Euro came in a shade colder than 12z...a little better for north of the pike for front end snow. Does the Euro have ant accumulating snow for northern CT at all (including higher elevations)? Going from the NAM/GFS I would have to think we see little of any accumulations (perhaps a coating...maybe close to an inch in the higher elevations)...could be concerned with a brief period of freezing rain as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Looks like a rainer from me points S&E. I'm on the line, but looks mostly wet. Maybe Ray can pick up a half inch to 1.5" of snow before the warmth takes over. Northern ORH looks to cash in...if they manage to stay snow longer an easy 2-4". Maybe a spot 5" amount by Princeton/Gardner. 0.5C to 1.0C will make all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Does the Euro have ant accumulating snow for northern CT at all (including higher elevations)? Going from the NAM/GFS I would have to think we see little of any accumulations (perhaps a coating...maybe close to an inch in the higher elevations)...could be concerned with a brief period of freezing rain as well. Yeah, I could see an inch or two in the higher elevations of CT. Kev likely ~1" on the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Does the Euro have ant accumulating snow for northern CT at all (including higher elevations)? Going from the NAM/GFS I would have to think we see little of any accumulations (perhaps a coating...maybe close to an inch in the higher elevations)...could be concerned with a brief period of freezing rain as well. Yeah N CT might get an inch or two on the Euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yeah N CT might get an inch or two on the Euro.. Extreme northern ORH at 850 stays <0C for the duration of the precip. Even the BL stays pretty cold out that way. Definitely could be problems with freezing rain/drizzle as the precip comes to an end. Any icing looks to be confined to areas outside of 495 (which makes sense) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yeah, I could see an inch or two in the higher elevations of CT. Kev likely ~1" on the EURO. Yeah N CT might get an inch or two on the Euro.. Alright thanks...at this time I probably would bet against any sort of accumulations even of that much...just worried the really strong southerly winds with warm the thermal profile rather quickly, especially with somewhat warmer SSTA's to our south. If 12z guidance comes in cooler than I'd be more excited for something. I could certainly a coating or a few hundredths of an inch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Extreme northern ORH at 850 stays <0C for the duration of the precip. Even the BL stays pretty cold out that way. Definitely could be problems with freezing rain/drizzle as the precip comes to an end. Any icing looks to be confined to areas outside of 495 (which makes sense) FZDZ is def a concern Thu night...even down into the CP. I doubt there is warning snow in MA like the Euro tries to do for areas near the NH border...I'd expect it to trend a tad warmer in the mid-levels...but the icing is def a concern. Having it trend colder at the onset though is good for getting a few inches before the flip though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 FZDZ is def a concern Thu night...even down into the CP. I doubt there is warning snow in MA like the Euro tries to do for areas near the NH border...I'd expect it to trend a tad warmer in the mid-levels...but the icing is def a concern. Having it trend colder at the onset though is good for getting a few inches before the flip though. 00z GFS and EURO both a smidge colder, priceless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I wonder if we could see some convection Thursday morning...pretty decent instability spike between 9z and 18z Thursday with some pretty strong lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 FZDZ is def a concern Thu night...even down into the CP. I doubt there is warning snow in MA like the Euro tries to do for areas near the NH border...I'd expect it to trend a tad warmer in the mid-levels...but the icing is def a concern. Having it trend colder at the onset though is good for getting a few inches before the flip though. Definitely could see you pulling a 2.6" total to some icing/light rain before tapering as FZDZ. Areas to the north of you could see higher amounts if the EURO cooling is for real and not a one run fluke. I bet we see this wobble a little bit more tomorrow. That said, the 00z GFS did look better for a few inches in your area too compared to earlier runs. Maybe it's the start of a new revived cooling trend from yesterday afternoon? I think my area is just about cooked though. We would need a solid cooling trend that I don't think will pan out. Maybe it just pours massive aggregates early Thursday morning and much of SNE gets a quick 3-6"? Wouldn't that be quite the uplifter before the pattern turns post 1/23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Staying up for the new day 2 outlook then going to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Just woke up after falling asleep since about 8pm. Reading about this ULL. My original plans were to leave about 3am and drive to Bolton Thursday Morning and leave that night. Now people are talking about an upslope smoking on Friday. So naturally I should wait until Friday? Are you guys sure the upslope is going to be impressive on Friday yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Staying up for the new day 2 outlook then going to bed. As in SPC outlook? Are you completely on crack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Definitely could see you pulling a 2.6" total to some icing/light rain before tapering as FZDZ. Areas to the north of you could see higher amounts if the EURO cooling is for real and not a one run fluke. I bet we see this wobble a little bit more tomorrow. That said, the 00z GFS did look better for a few inches in your area too compared to earlier runs. Maybe it's the start of a new revived cooling trend from yesterday afternoon? I think my area is just about cooked though. We would need a solid cooling trend that I don't think will pan out. Maybe it just pours massive aggregates early Thursday morning and much of SNE gets a quick 3-6"? Wouldn't that be quite the uplifter before the pattern turns post 1/23. BL will probably cook you pretty fast...up towards Ray is where it gets closer...he could be hanging onto 31-32F +SN for a couple hours while you are 35F and rain or some glop mixture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 As in SPC outlook? Are you completely on crack? He's hoping to see if the Cape can get a few rumbles of thunder...maybe the south coast of CT/RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 He's hoping to see if the Cape can get a few rumbles of thunder...maybe the south coast of CT/RI. Could be possible in those areas that briefly get into the shallow warm sector. Waiting to see if day 2 outlook has any general t'storm forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 He's hoping to see if the Cape can get a few rumbles of thunder...maybe the south coast of CT/RI. Thats.... Fun.... Wiz if you want a feel rumbles feel free to come listen to my stomach after I eat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Aw what the heck? No t'storm outlook at all P.S. No thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Just woke up after falling asleep since about 8pm. Reading about this ULL. My original plans were to leave about 3am and drive to Bolton Thursday Morning and leave that night. Now people are talking about an upslope smoking on Friday. So naturally I should wait until Friday? Are you guys sure the upslope is going to be impressive on Friday yet? Did you see the omega cross-section powderfreak posted? It was pretty intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The 00z Guidance has done very little to make me stray from my call of 1-3" here followed by IP/ZR...and 3-6" up near the NH border...the high end of that range is still looking a bit precarious, but the colder trends on the Euro and GFS still leave it open for a possibility. I think I'll probably get 1.8" or something here...but I'll be hoping for 3" before the flip. The harder part of the forecast is dealing with how long the ZR holds on and where it does....whether its only above 700 feet or lower down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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