OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Rolling right along. Winter storm watches up for much of interior New England for the snow and ice threat. More evidence growing for an ice threat in my opinion. The CAD signature has been fairly unwavering. Mid level warming, which also has been unwavering, will surely mix snow with sleet, and by the late afternoon as the dry slot moves in, I think much of the region will be dealing with freezing drizzle, lasting overnight as the longer-wave mid level trough remains to our west. Also, definitely keeping an eye on Friday. Model guidance continues to really dig that trough into the Ohio Valley in classic bowling ball fashion. As it lifts northeastward, a s/w spoke coming around will trigger secondary cyclogenesis in Virginia (note baggy isobars), and rotate it northward into New York state. As has been discussed, these events can perform very well (with the upper low), especially adding in upslope. You can get high ratios as mid level temps drop off and a round of strong UVVs swings through with the s/w. This targets western (and upslope areas) the greatest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Ginxy's baggy isobar fetish... good Pete, PF, wxmanmitch should score on that end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Srefs went much warmer.... Its over here... Dammit Congrats up north... Are you sure will? They look warmer for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 SREFs cooled a bit...but not a huge surprise considering they were on the warmer end of the guidance envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Srefs went much warmer.... Its over here... Dammit Congrats up north... SREFs cooled a bit...but not a huge surprise considering they were on the warmer end of the guidance envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 SREFs cooled a bit...but not a huge surprise considering they were on the warmer end of the guidance envelope. Yeah they look better for Ray to start out as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 They actually kind of did both, lol...I was looking at early frames down here for SNE and they were colder at 09z and 12z Thursday vs the 15z run, but then when you get to 18z Thursday, they are a bit warmer in SNH...but the spread becomes enormous by that time in NH, so its obvious the members are in disagreement up there by 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 snowNH.....stop, look, listen.,,,lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 snowNH might have saw the 18z time. I did the same thing Will did...had to do a double take. Maybe it's spread related, or lift isn't as strong allowing for warmth to move nwd, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 They actually kind of did both, lol...I was looking at early frames down here for SNE and they were colder at 09z and 12z Thursday vs the 15z run, but then when you get to 18z Thursday, they are a bit warmer in SNH...but the spread becomes enormous by that time in NH, so its obvious the members are in disagreement up there by 18z. I think i may end up flirting with a warm layer unless we get this to tic SE, Its going to be close, I can see a good front end thump to IP ending as FRZDR here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 "Are you sure Will?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 snowNH might have saw the 18z time. I did the same thing Will did...had to do a double take. Maybe it's spread related, or lift isn't as strong allowing for warmth to move nwd, It could be a couple members going nuts...hard to say. Yesterday we saw the SREFs actually tick a shade warmer on one run but the snow probabilities went up because the mean was being skewed by a couple warm members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I think i may end up flirting with a warm layer unless we get this to tic SE, Its going to be close, I can see a good front end thump to IP ending as FRZDR here Meh, cold tuck saves you. I maybe flirting with warmer rain. Enjoy bro, you guys need it for your economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It probably wouldn't change my thinking too much anyways, unless the SREF probs are really different from 15z. The problem is, and will be that warm layer aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 snowNH might have saw the 18z time. I did the same thing Will did...had to do a double take. Maybe it's spread related, or lift isn't as strong allowing for warmth to move nwd, I think once the surface low moves off to the NE, The 850's warmed over 0C here when i was looking at the gfs earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Meh, cold tuck saves you. I maybe flirting with warmer rain. Enjoy bro, you guys need it for your economy. Thanks Steve, This will help some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I think once the surface low moves off to the NE, The 850's warmed over 0C here when i was looking at the gfs earlier Yeah you kind of pull a typical swfe for our area. Front end dump of snow, then dryslot or ice..something like that. That warm layer is something to watch...I haven't looked hard for your area, but it moves pretty steadily nwd. Damage is mostly done by then anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yeah you kind of pull a typical swfe for our area. Front end dump of snow, then dryslot or ice..something like that. That warm layer is something to watch...I haven't looked hard for your area, but it moves pretty steadily nwd. Damage is mostly done by then anyways. It was on the backend and your right the best lift was long gone by then, We will just add a little crust on top for good measure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 That vort is pretty impressive on WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Regardless of the final outcome it's safe to say that the outcome of the next few days is wat better than what the doom and gloomers were peddling a few short days ago. Rain to the Canadian border.Pffft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It was on the backend and your right the best lift was long gone by then, We will just add a little crust on top for good measure Well enjoy it. Hope you do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Regardless of the final outcome it's safe to say that the outcome of the next few days is wat better than what the doom and gloomers were peddling a few short days ago. Rain to the Canadian border.Pffft. I think you better go to AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Well enjoy it. Hope you do well. Thanks, I hope you guys get to cash here in the next few weeks as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 thur accums are are all about the dump/thump thou driving thru nite is all about the frz drizzle snizzle seems like accums are very difficult to forecast here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Speed has been pretty consistent in the modeling. If we can thump half or more of our qpf as frozen out here we should be into the lighter precip before the 0c line moves overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 big big winter incoming. just like 2001... hardly a flurry until February and then BAM... dumping after dumping until roofs start coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 One thing I'd like to see on the 00z runs is for it to increase the omega on the front a little more....it will help fight the warm nose trying to punch in at 800mb...on previous guidance, the omega starts off a little mediocre for a few hours which allows the warm nose aloft to make better progress north. The big omega comes in right as we are flipping or just after we flip which tries to dynamically cool it, but its a little bit late on those cases which keeps snowfall in the 1-3" range until you get near the NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 it's looking like the mtn sunapee area over to king pine are in line for a solid 6-9 inches or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 One thing I'd like to see on the 00z runs is for it to increase the omega on the front a little more....it will help fight the warm nose trying to punch in at 800mb...on previous guidance, the omega starts off a little mediocre for a few hours which allows the warm nose aloft to make better progress north. The big omega comes in right as we are flipping or just after we flip which tries to dynamically cool it, but its a little bit late on those cases which keeps snowfall in the 1-3" range until you get near the NH border. Wish the airmass was a little colder to get better Tip frontal upglide. Remember those events in 2007? They had like a 60kt 850 jet from the sw over LI and then almost calm winds just out ahead of it, in srn CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 SREF probs are pretty tough for Mass. Might be related to that quick warming they had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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