The Official Winter 2011-12 Futility Record Thread

[bboughton]

Does the snow today count since it was the start of meteorological Spring?

[ORH_wxman]

Does the snow today count since it was the start of meteorological Spring?

It counts toward the seasonal total...not the met winter total...but BOS wasn't chasing the met winter futility record anyway.

[CoastalWx]

LOL, I figured that's what would happen. Probably will end just like that.

[Damage In Tolland]

Congrats Boston!!

[HoarfrostHubb]

0.4" for BOS todfay....1.3" for the event....9.1" for the season, futility busted. Would be funny if they finish the seasonb with that total, lol.

I think missing the futility only makes it feel worse

[ApacheTrout]

Some notes:

1) Data is from NWS WFO for Burlington, VT, Gray, ME, Taunton, MA, Binghamton, NY, and Buffalo, NY.

2) YTD and normal snowfall average is through March 1, 2012

3) The delta from 2/24 to 3/01 is a comparison of the departure to date from last week to this week against normal. The number is negative if the departure increased, and positive if the departure from normal decreased. Every city but for Buffalo made gains against their deficits. Five cities posted double digit percentage gains, and Portland and Concord are within shouting distance of their normal snowfall to date.

4) No city in the study is likely to set a futility record, but several cities may have their 2011-2012 snowfall totals entered into the bottom 10 totals. The graph will be updated next week with the bottom 10 thresholds where available.

5) Boston is the only city below 50 percent of its normal snowfall. Certainly, the warm air temperature is a factor, but could this also be a function of ocean water temperatures being above normal (which I'm assuming is true, but haven't checked)?

6) Tolland Screw Zone is a fictional place, but inhabited by many members this year in CT and MA. I pick on CT Blizz here only because he's the WOTY, and not because of anything personal. Next week, the screw zone may move, potentially to Wimington, MA, Hubbardston, MA or Fairfield, CT, depending on who moans the most this week. Unchanged from the previous week.

Edited to update chart, as the series labels were wrong.

[Cold Miser]

6) Tolland Screw Zone is a fictional place, but inhabited by many members this year in CT and MA. I pick on CT Blizz here only because he's the WOTY, and not because of anything personal.

Trout, FTW.

[CoastalWx]

Boston has been a function of crappy boundary layer, and just awful luck. Spots 10-20 miles south have almost 50% annual snowfall. It's not SSTs or anything. To have less than 25% of normal snowfall is beyond ridiculous.

[Ginx snewx]

Some notes:

1) Data is from NWS WFO for Burlington, VT, Gray, ME, Taunton, MA, Binghamton, NY, and Buffalo, NY.

2) YTD and normal snowfall average is through March 1, 2012

3) The delta from 2/24 to 3/01 is a comparison of the departure to date from last week to this week against normal. The number is negative if the departure increased, and positive if the departure from normal decreased. Every city but for Buffalo made gains against their deficits.  Five cities posted double digit percentage gains, and Portland and Concord are within shouting distance of their normal snowfall to date.

4) No city in the study is likely to set a futility record, but several cities may have their 2011-2012 snowfall totals entered into the bottom 10 totals.  The graph will be updated next week with the bottom 10 thresholds where available.

5) Boston is the only city below 50 percent of its normal snowfall.  Certainly, the warm air temperature is a factor, but could this also be a function of ocean water temperatures being above normal (which I'm assuming is true, but haven't checked)?

6) Tolland Screw Zone is a fictional place, but inhabited by many members this year in CT and MA. I pick on CT Blizz here only because he's the WOTY, and not because of anything personal. Next week, the screw zone may move, potentially to Wimington, MA, Hubbardston, MA or Fairfield, CT, depending on who moans the most this week.  Unchanged from the previous week.

That is awesome bro, Boston has been the absolute puke zone this year, your stats concur.

[HoarfrostHubb]

lol at apachetrout!!!

My new favorite poster

[ApacheTrout]

That is awesome bro, Boston has been the absolute puke zone this year, your stats concur.

Thanks, Ginx. I lived in Salem, MA for five years at the turn of the century and was driven nuts every time the coast went rain while 10 miles inland went snow. Certainly, there were times when snowfall was heavier on the coast due to greater moisture content (the fabled blue bombs), but more often Salem was on the wrong side of the line, and I'd have to shake my fist at the sky.

[Ginx snewx]

<p>

Thanks, Ginx.  I lived in Salem, MA for five years at the turn of the century and was driven nuts every time the coast went rain while 10 miles inland went snow.  Certainly, there were times when snowfall was heavier on the coast due to greater moisture content (the fabled blue bombs), but more often Salem was on the wrong side of the line, and I'd have to shake my fist at the sky.

I can totally relate being born and raised in Westerly RI. What would be great is one bookender rougue storm to put a lot of these places at normal. That is the thing about stats like total snow, they do not tell the tale of a winter. Snow depth days is how that is determined.

[weathafella]

<p>

I can totally relate being born and raised in Westerly RI. What would be great is one bookender rougue storm to put a lot of these places at normal. That is the thing about stats like total snow, they do not tell the tale of a winter. Snow depth days is how that is determined.

I have a funny feeling that long after the tulips are up we get a crusher.

[CoastalWx]

I have a funny feeling that long after the tulips are up we get a crusher.

It would be fitting to have my biggest storm be an 8" tulip trouncer..lol.

[Logan11]

I kind of wonder how relevant a record (futility) is when the airport is the least snowy spot in the whole region ....sitting out there begging to rain in any way possible.

It made sense to have official observations taken at airports when real human's did it...so most of the official locations got shifted from the cities to the airports in the early/mid 20th Century.

Now in 2012 it mostly done by asos, so why not move them to a more representative place again for the "official" data. Stick one in the Boston Common and call that BOS ...or maybe someone from the area has a better place.

You can still have an asos at Logan for historical record reasons.

Boston has been a function of crappy boundary layer, and just awful luck. Spots 10-20 miles south have almost 50% annual snowfall. It's not SSTs or anything. To have less than 25% of normal snowfall is beyond ridiculous.

[weathafella]

I kind of wonder how relevant a record (futility) is when the airport is the least snowy spot in the whole region ....sitting out there begging to rain in any way possible.

It made sense to have official observations taken at airports when real human's did it...so most of the official locations got shifted from the cities to the airports in the early/mid 20th Century.

Now in 2012 it mostly done by asos, so why not move them to a more representative place again for the "official" data. Stick one in the Boston Common and call that BOS ...or maybe someone from the area has a better place.

You can still have an asos at Logan for historical record reasons.

Great post...agree wholeheartedly.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Why Winthrop now?

[wxsniss]

It would be fitting to have my biggest storm be an 8" tulip trouncer..lol.

good riddance despicable winter 2011-2012... unless we get a 4/1/97, i don't want to hear about snow again for 9 (not 8!) months.

yesterday's historic tornado outbreak has put me well into severe weather mode.

regarding Logan as Boston's official snowfall measure site, agree it doesn't make sense. Boston commons or Copley make more sense. to add to the above comments, we have also gotten shafted on multiple occasions because the airport juts out into the ocean, including big ones like April 97 and Jan 2005.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Boston has been a function of crappy boundary layer, and just awful luck. Spots 10-20 miles south have almost 50% annual snowfall. It's not SSTs or anything. To have less than 25% of normal snowfall is beyond ridiculous.

Part of that is a function of the SSTs too which are seemingly about 5 degrees above normal which extends well out to our east into the North Atlantic. I'd have to think in marginal situations like the other day it puts Boston into Cape Cod/December mode where try as we might it's impossible most storms to fight off the atlantic warmth.

Negative feedback loop from such a terribly warm winter.

[CoastalWx]

Part of that is a function of the SSTs too which are seemingly about 5 degrees above normal which extends well out to our east into the North Atlantic. I'd have to think in marginal situations like the other day it puts Boston into Cape Cod/December mode where try as we might it's impossible most storms to fight off the atlantic warmth.

Negative feedback loop from such a terribly warm winter.

Eh, maybe it cost me an inch or two...but it doesn't help having warming temps from 950-850mb on an east wind. But to miss on some storms that got people like you and even Bob...just some craptastic luck.

[Ginx snewx]

It counts toward the seasonal total...not the met winter total...but BOS wasn't chasing the met winter futility record anyway.

yea 4th worst Met winter                             BOSTON            ...PERIOD OF RECORD: 1872 TO PRESENT...     SEASONAL SUMMARY----------------WINTER:   44.7     29.6     37.2    7.64   7.7  2ND WARMEST AVG          +6.1     +4.5     +5.4   -2.75 -25.1  4TH LEAST SNOWIEST WINTER

[CoastalWx]

Why Winthrop now?

My friend was the Logan observer. It was hard enough to be the "offical" observer with shift work and what not, but now he moved out of East Boston. So, they'll take the Winthrop total.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

My friend was the Logan observer. It was hard enough to be the "offical" observer with shift work and what not, but now he moved out of East Boston. So, they'll take the Winthrop total.

IMO but that skews the recording. The old location was a pretty difficult place to see snow accumulate. I think it taints the futility record.

[CoastalWx]

IMO but that skews the recording. The old location was a pretty difficult place to see snow accumulate. I think it taints the futility record.

The location is probably about the same in terms of accmulation. Both are at the water. I've had very similar conditions to Logan, as I am also near the water. It's tough to find real good snow observers. Most don't have the time to do every 6 hrs.

[weathafella]

good riddance despicable winter 2011-2012... unless we get a 4/1/97, i don't want to hear about snow again for 9 (not 8!) months.

yesterday's historic tornado outbreak has put me well into severe weather mode.

regarding Logan as Boston's official snowfall measure site, agree it doesn't make sense. Boston commons or Copley make more sense. to add to the above comments, we have also gotten shafted on multiple occasions because the airport juts out into the ocean, including big ones like April 97 and Jan 2005.

I don't think it was a factor in 2005. Far SE MA got 36+.

[CoastalWx]

I don't think it was a factor in 2005. Far SE MA got 36+.

Yeah Jan 2005 had nothing to do with ocean, and April 1 1997 has over 25" of snow. I don't call that getting that shaft. Temps were in the teens in Jan 2005..lol.

[weathafella]

Yeah Jan 2005 had nothing to do with ocean, and April 1 1997 has over 25" of snow. I don't call that getting that shaft. Temps were in the teens in Jan 2005..lol.

I think the case can be made maybe in 97 for losing hours of snow before BOS flipped.

[amarshall]

The location is probably about the same in terms of accmulation. Both are at the water. I've had very similar conditions to Logan, as I am also near the water. It's tough to find real good snow observers. Most don't have the time to do every 6 hrs.

By the crow flies I'm 4 miles from Logan over the water. When they do power up tests on the jet engines you can hear it over your TV.

[CoastalWx]

I think the case can be made maybe in 97 for losing hours of snow before BOS flipped.

Yeah maybe they lost several inches, but I think it's a weak argument. However, I do agree that it usually is not representative of the city...both in terms of temps and snow. But then again, many places aren't in other cities.

[wxsniss]

I don't think it was a factor in 2005. Far SE MA got 36+.

Yeah Jan 2005 had nothing to do with ocean, and April 1 1997 has over 25" of snow. I don't call that getting that shaft. Temps were in the teens in Jan 2005..lol.

Yeah maybe they lost several inches, but I think it's a weak argument. However, I do agree that it usually is not representative of the city...both in terms of temps and snow. But then again, many places aren't in other cities.

Guys... I clearly remember people here making my argument back in Jan 2005.

Look back at the data, I think it supports this argument.

January 2005 snow totals at relevant sites, sites immediately adjacent to Logan in every direction (except East of the airport) had > 3.5 inches recorded:

Middlesex County

Cambridge 30.0 inches (76.2 cm), 2:58 p.m. January 23

Suffolk County

Winthrop 28.6 inches (72.6 cm), 4:00 p.m. January 23

Winthrop Square 27.0 inches (68.6 cm), 10:00 p.m. January 23

Boston Common 26.0 inches (66 cm), 1:16 p.m. January 23 NWS employee

East Boston 22.5 inches (57.2 cm), 7:00 p.m. January 23 Logan kbos

April 97 marine influence obviously played a role.

January 2005 I'm less certain if it was marine influence right at the surface (parts of the harbor were in fact frozen), but Logan clearly was a big discrepancy from several adjacent sites, and there seems to be a gradient Logan-BostonCommons-Cambridge.