ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Rooting for futility is awful IMHO...sorry Ray, I think its bad. But we all have different viewpoints. I hope you get your record and I'll root for a Dec 1996 to give me 16" while you get a sloppy inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Yeah...only been to the car wash once after 1/20 to get the salt off. Other than that, it's been fine. Even the baseball fields are dry at this point. No mud FTW once that starts up. I told our girls practice is not far away, early start this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Rooting for futility is awful IMHO...sorry Ray, I think its bad. But we all have different viewpoints. I hope you get your record and I'll root for a Dec 1996 to give me 16" while you get a sloppy inch. Different strokes for different folks I guess. Any thoughts on the future pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 We all need to root for a Dec 1996, that way Ray can be happy he gets his record and some of us can be happy we get a huge storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I'm with you on this one Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I told our girls practice is not far away, early start this year. Fields will be in good shape early. Of course, April will probably be wall to wall 39F with drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Rooting for futility is awful IMHO...sorry Ray, I think its bad. But we all have different viewpoints. I hope you get your record and I'll root for a Dec 1996 to give me 16" while you get a sloppy inch. Dumb..awful...same thing..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Im pretty confident there will be another late season bomb just when we thought the futility records are within reach .. i can live with a 96/97 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I think Jerry's Elephant is now a Wooly Mammoth, nothing can happen now to erase this winter as the worst ever in my mind, nothing. What if there was a 20" bomb before March 1st ? Then, another couple of 12"ers before April 1? Lastly, a freak 10"er on April 10? Those, combined with what is in the bucket already would actually put this season above normal - ironically. It would seem failing to erase this as the worst winter after such a result wouldn't really be fair, either....just sayin'. Not that anyone asked but if any one of those above scenarios took place I'd be happy. For me, once we get passed February ~10th of any given year, snow rots on the vine so to speak. Unless you have some odd late season cold anomaly from the heart of hell going on, the in between snow events periods the sun literally eats snow at almost as fast a rate as it gets put down. Snow banks get that shard look, where the dark particulate matter absorbs solar energy and act like little mining drills. Snow on the ground gets spring-like and granular. The groan of an aging dying winter is in the air. I think front end winters that linger a little and then end as a final great March hurrah are the better. If you get to January 15 of any given year (such as the plight that we have had) all expectations are completely reset to me, and it's an entirely different paradigm at that point going forward. At Thanksgiving ....dreams of epic ...and even nearing Christmas one can still be open minded. The problem is, by the time you get to Jan 15 or the 20th, just 3 to 4 weeks later, if nothing has happened and the ground has still been stolen to brown by the unlikely statistical theft of not having any events at all - such as this year's remarkable panache in achieving - climatology would argue that you have a very small small chance of recuperating sustained snow pack late. That is why the expectation is reasonably shifted away from snow pack duration, depth records, "the awe" factor, etc, in lieu of single event bomb-type awe. Winter was over in my mind as of January 20th this year and having achieved the statistical difficulty of not having anything. Part of the spring expectation then became the chance for the single event awe. 1888, and 1993 ...there is a reason the biggest events ever occurred in the first 2 weeks of March. At first glance the overnight GEFs-derived teleonnectors were epically bad, but there is a hidden sort of protocol about using them in the spring. The mean L/W, wave lengths start shrinking. With the recent rise in the AO (now back positive), the ambient gradients over all are relaxing - the resulting polarward migration of the average latitude of the westerlies means that a negative PNA doesn't flag the same correlation as it would on January 15. What is interesting is that the operational runs are refusing to cooperate with that expectation. This last season has been one plagued by lower statistical probabilities defeating the greater. It's been an incredible year for gamblers putting bucks down on the long shots - in this case, we went through nearly a month of very favorable large scale indicators and pulled a no-no; there was ... I dunno, a 15% chance of getting that to happen in the midst of a -4 SD AO, concurrent with a +2 SD PNA, concurrent with an active and powerful MJO passing squarely between Phases 7-8-1 ... A no-no was absurd, yet here we are. If that were not enough, the antecedent time between October and late January, at no time did we observe a La Nina look to the pattern(s) from the Pacific into N/A. That was also a succeeding lower probability event in its self. I spoke with Will for a long while last night and we were very much in agreement, in addition to all of that above (perhaps even related...), there just simply has been nothing going on. You can't really complain about the lack of wanted sensible weather (winter in this case) when nothing is happening. You could be more justified to complain if you were experiencing a steady diet of storms and they all sucked. In this case, we have had plenty of marginal atmospheres where if anything ANYTHING AT ALL were passing through, it would have snowed. This should be an interesting year in re-analysis efforts to try and figure out why all that was/is... I believe that on a fundamental level, deconstructive wave interference on large and small scales has been pervasive - what drives/determines a year to be constructive (1995-1996; take your pick) -vs- deconstructive (1994-1995; 1988-1989; NOW) is worthy of figuring out in the art of prognostics. Because if one knew which would be favored in a given autumn, they'd look pretty damn clever on their seasonal outlook With the climate-clock shifting toward spring, however, the changing wave lengths makes it extremely unlikely that whatever physical processes caused all that to happen, would or could still apply. Change the waves, you change the mathematics of the whole system. So, taken for what it is worth, much of this is philosophical sounding, perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Rooting for futility is awful IMHO...sorry Ray, I think its bad. But we all have different viewpoints. I hope you get your record and I'll root for a Dec 1996 to give me 16" while you get a sloppy inch. What's ironic about that whole thing to me is that rooting for futility, is futile within its self. Think about this for a minute... If FIT gets 24" of blue glory in an epically powerful late season nor'easter, and Ray gets .7" sloppy slush preserving futility - phew! - the whole thing is pointless for me. Who cares if a single individual's back yard has a futility record - I guess from that we could infer a question: Shouldn't futility only apply if every climo site from ORD to Nova Scotia is also favored for the same achievement? Otherwise, is not weather or Meteorology - it strikes me of trying to justify whining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Yeah Tip...the lack of storminess is pretty amazing...even if you have a relatively mild airmass in the winter we can snow...just as long as you are getting chances at precip. This year we just are finding a way to not get storms...rain or snow. The idea that the hemispheric pattern has been awful the whole winter is flawed too...we had some semi-favorable setups...we never got a great setup because of the lack of a -NAO, but we don't need a -NAO to get storms or threats. We had the PNA spike a couple times and just happened to whiff. We did get that one period where several smaller events came through in January, but never managed to get any type of large scale teleconnector Archambault style system. They always either never materialized or whiffed out to sea. Pretty frustrating...but as you said, its still a decent ways to go considering we have about 5-6 weeks of realistic climo. I guess we'll see how it evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Tip, you make a good point regarding the wholesale lack of ANYTHING this winter. In NYC I believe we are on pace to set the record for all-time driest Feb ever as we've only recorded 0.4" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Tip, you make a good point regarding the wholesale lack of ANYTHING this winter. In NYC I believe we are on pace to set the record for all-time driest Feb ever as we've only recorded 0.4" so far. ORH has you beat 0.23" at the airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 ORH has you beat 0.23" at the airport That's completely insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I spent about an hour reading through the discussions leading up to 10/29. It's worth your time... I lived vicariously through 3 month old posts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 One thing is for sure..looks like after the rainer end of week..we're setting up for a very cold period`starting next weekend and beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 One thing is for sure..looks like after the rainer end of week..we're setting up for a very cold period`starting next weekend and beyond Climo starts muting cold threats beyond next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 Climo starts muting cold threats beyond next weekend. Climos been doing that all winter..now that climo should start doing it..it probably won't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Climos been doing that all winter..now that climo should start doing it..it probably won't I don't know. The sun felt awfully warm on the skin earlier this afternoon. I just want one big storm, just one with maybe a 2-4" event a few days later. A wintery 10 day period and then spring would be fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 One thing is for sure..looks like after the rainer end of week..we're setting up for a very cold period`starting next weekend and beyond With a -PNA, +AO and no blocking whatsoever, I'm thinking not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 We all need to root for a Dec 1996, that way Ray can be happy he gets his record and some of us can be happy we get a huge storm. I don't care what in the hell you root for because it has absolutely no impact at all on what will actually transpire.....given the anger that my yearning for the record has elicited, I'm not sure everyone understands that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 What's ironic about that whole thing to me is that rooting for futility, is futile within its self. Think about this for a minute... If FIT gets 24" of blue glory in an epically powerful late season nor'easter, and Ray gets .7" sloppy slush preserving futility - phew! - the whole thing is pointless for me. Who cares if a single individual's back yard has a futility record - I guess from that we could infer a question: Shouldn't futility only apply if every climo site from ORD to Nova Scotia is also favored for the same achievement? Otherwise, is not weather or Meteorology - it strikes me of trying to justify whining. I do because it's my back yard - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Funny.....when you root for snow, it's condoned, but when you root for record dearth of snow....it's a justification for whining that is not taking place....at least by me. The folks rooting against futilty are the ones who are whining. And John, I don't think you will ever see a season in which every major climo site sets it's a futility record.....just like it's very rare for every climo site from ORD to Nova Scotia to set a record high seasonal snowfall. Good luck witht that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I do because it's my back yard - Yeah ...it wouldn't diminish how bad it sucks for Ray - no. But, if such an ordeal played out where there were ...say 3 or 4 big events that dumped hugely from HFD-ASH-CON and spared the Coastal Plain - regionally, the winter is no longer futile. More over, pure objective scientific reasoning concludes that in such scenario the significance of a smaller area receiving less than the regional mean would be less coherently meaningful as to pattern bias'. Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you. Eh, it's moot anyway while we are discussing hypothetical scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Yeah ...it wouldn't diminish how bad it sucks for Ray - no. But, if such an ordeal played out where there were ...say 3 or 4 big events that dumped hugely from HFD-ASH-CON and spared the Coastal Plain - regionally, the winter is no longer futile. More over, pure objective scientific reasoning concludes that in such scenario the significance of a smaller area receiving less than the regional mean would be less coherently meaningful as to pattern bias'. Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you. Eh, it's moot anyway while we are discussing hypothetical scenarios. Good luck with that. But if it did happen, it's futile on the cp....I don't care about n ORH co and they don't care about mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Funny.....when you root for snow, it's condoned, but when you root for record dearth of snow....it's a justification for whining that is not taking place....at least by me. The folks rooting against futilty are the ones who are whining. And John, I don't think you will ever see a season in which every major climo site sets it's a futility record.....just like it's very rare for every climo site from ORD to Nova Scotia to set a record high seasonal snowfall. Good luck witht that - It would be the mean, though... (ALB+CLE+ORD+BOS+LGA+BUF+....N site)/ #N's ..then compared to historical data. Again, the significance of a single point is less indicative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It would be the mean, though... (ALB+CLE+ORD+BOS+LGA+BUF+....N site)/ #N's ..then compared to historical data. Again, the significance of a single point is less indicative. I guess, but I'm more interested imby and the ambient environs. That is very unlikely to happen, anyway. 2010 was one of the most epic winters for alot of the east coast, but I couldn't care less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 If anyone can snap there fingers and provide me with a big storm, have at it....I'd love it. But if I'm to decide between marginal, garbage events or futility, give me futilty. The season has been so awful already, why not go the extra mile.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Interesting discussion fron KTAN: THERE IS A FLY IN THE OINTMENT WITH THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES HAVE A MUCH STRONGER SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS ACTUALLY WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW/ICE TO AFFECT THE INTERIOR WEST OF RAYS HOUSE FOR A TIME THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI...WITH THE TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. BUT ITS CERTAINLY SOMETHING WILL NEED TO WATCH IF THE MODELS TREND TO A CHILLIER/MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THE LOW THU NIGHT/FRI. THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY END THE FUTILITY OF THIS WINTER WHILE MAINTAINING THAT CERTAIN INDIVIDUALS SHALL REMAIN IN THEIR PRIVATE SNOWLESS HELL. ...It's amazing how specific (and accurate!) they can be at times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I'm not wishing to miss a major storm....but if there are no major events to be had, then I'd rather the record. All I'm saying....I'm not wishing away a MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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