capitalweather Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I think Greg wrote a nice discussion about how the flow regime might change over the next couple weeks and what that means for the our sensible weather. DT and Wes have weighed in with some interesting points: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/arctic-air-on-the-move-but-where-is-it-going/2012/01/10/gIQAiEKZoP_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I don't see any -NAO that Dave talks about. It looks like heights try to raise across the Davis Straits, but that may be a product of the PV retrograding too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Interesting read-- I'll side with Wes until?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 sounds like DT is going for a hail mary. good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I don't see any -NAO that Dave talks about. It looks like heights try to raise across the Davis Straits, but that may be a product of the PV retrograding too. Even if the nao goes negative in terms of the index, it's still not a cold pattern as there is no real blocking and no 50 50 north south of it. One thing that could happen would be for the blocking ridge over the bearing sea to retrograde enough to get a pacific trough far enuf west to allow the heights to again build over the western U.S. The other trouble is we're going into another warm spell after out next cold shot and that will put us pretty much into the last half of January. It will be interesting to see what happens to the nao. I don't feel comfortable when the AO and NOA are at odds but the euro ens day 10 still had a weak positive nao. I don't see anything past taht so maybe Dave see something on the longer range stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I don't know, DT maybe right I'm thinking he's figuring the tropical system that shows up at the end of the 18Z GFS finally switches the NAO http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F10%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 sounds like DT is going for a hail mary. good luck If DT calls for a pattern change long enough eventually he'll be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I don't know, DT maybe right I'm thinking he's figuring the tropical system that shows up at the end of the 18Z GFS finally switches the NAO http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M That would be historic for sure and maybe blow in a black swan or two! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It's getting late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Congrats Washington...state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It's getting late. i'm real close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It's getting late. Wow! It is just not meant to be this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 It's getting late. Great figure, Wes. Just posted to CWG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiOrDie Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It's getting late. Considering the strength and the southern displacement of what is a strong Polar Vortex (in fact by far much stronger than any vortex on the other side of the north pole) I have a hard time seeing how such warm anomalies are possible. Yes, the upper air regime will be zonal and Pacific air will be mixing in as it moves into the East...but we're not going to be experiencing a blowtorch like the NAEFS and other meteorologists suggest at the end of January with the strength and position of that polar vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 It's getting late. I'll finish the rest of the Yogi Berra expression, "It gets late early around here." Wes, I can not find this on the CPC web site, can you give me the link within the link? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I'll finish the rest of the Yogi Berra expression, "It gets late early around here." Wes, I can not find this on the CPC web site, can you give me the link within the link? Thanks. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/NAEFS/Outlook_D264.00.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I'll finish the rest of the Yogi Berra expression, "It gets late early around here." Wes, I can not find this on the CPC web site, can you give me the link within the link? Thanks. I actually saw the european weekly today for the week ending Jan 29. it is absolutely a torch across almost the whole country the firehose is doing it's dirty work. The 240 euro also looks very warm at day 10 and looks like the heat would continue. January is pretty much toast. The CFS2 doesn't like Feb either. embrace the golf weather my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 http://www.cpc.ncep....ook_D264.00.php Midlo thanks, I just don't have an easy time navigating their web site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I actually saw the european weekly today for the week ending Jan 29. it is absolutely a torch across almost the whole country the firehose is doing it's dirty work. The 240 euro also looks very warm at day 10 and looks like the heat would continue. January is pretty much toast. The CFS2 doesn't like Feb either. embrace the golf weather my friend. Wes, You know what they say when life hands you lemons, go out and double bogey every hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Midlo thanks, I just don't have an easy time navigating their web site. trust me i get lost all the time trying to find stuff i know i have found before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Wes, You know what they say when life hands you lemons, go out and double bogey every hole. wes told us he bought a new books How to line up your third putt How to replace the grip on the ball retriever club Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Wes, You know what they say when life hands you lemons, go out and double bogey every hole. I did that my last time out. I had to make up for the best round of my life two weeks ago. Golf is even more humbling than forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 [/b] I did that my last time out. I had to make up for the best round of my life two weeks ago. Golf is even more humbling than forecasting. I've had my best 9 holes and my worst 9 holes on the same day. I'd rather have to forecast snow amounts than line up a 3-foot third putt that breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 wes told us he bought a new books How to line up your third putt How to replace the grip on the ball retriever club I've had a forwarded email from years ago printed out on my wall. Always makes me chuckle. Similar to those above: How to avoid the water when you lie 8 in a bunker How to get more distance off the shank God and the meaning of the birdie-to-bogey three putt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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