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West coast speculation


usedtobe

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Nice improvement on the snowpack across the Sierra after the week of storms. Wet and high elevation, but that is a good base. The latest snow currently falling with this final system is much colder with lower snow levels and better ratios. Looks like they will have to hold out for a while again as the Siberian Block breaks down and the Pacific storm tracks shifts north again.

SNow shots from Mammoth Ski and Heavenly.

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Good article. Lots of places in the sierra and coastal ranges got 4 to 7 inches of precip in the last 24 hrs. The heaviest I saw was over 7. When the precip is finally in a graphical form I'll post it.

http://www.wrh.noaa....cnrfc&version=0

Cool thanks for the link. Is the image below some sort of MOSAIC radar accumulated estimation?

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Cool thanks for the link. Is the image below some sort of MOSAIC radar accumulated estimation?

I was going to link you to the site but right now it is down. The data I think is a mosaic of the precipitation from the RFCs and in the west I think it uses mountain mapper to estimate the precipitation as higher levels based on climo relationships to observed stations farther down the mountains. I think in the west they also use snotel obs which are based on the wieght of the snow. When the site comes back up, I'll post the link.

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  • 1 month later...

Time to revive this thread. Some very impressive totals are suggested by guidance and should they verify, rains for the lower elevations and snowfall totals for the Cascade/Sierra Range will be most impressive...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

427 AM EDT MON MAR 12 2012

VALID 12Z FRI MAR 16 2012 - 12Z MON MAR 19 2012

A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED THROUGHOUT THE

MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD... AS ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA

INDICATE A CONTINUOUS LOWERING OF UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN

REGION WITH 500MB HEIGHT STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES AVERAGING 2 TO 3

TIMES BELOW STARTING THURS THROUGH NEXT MON. MEANWHILE OVER THE

ERN THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS... AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP

TO PRODUCE WELL ABOVE AVG TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT

IN THE NERN QUAD OF THE COUNTRY... AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD

DROP SOUTH AND EAST ON SAT/SUN. BACK TO THE WEST... ANOTHER

EXPLOSIVE UPPER JET/DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED COLD

FRONT WILL STREAM INTO THE NW ON THURS AND REACH THE UPPER MIDWEST

BY SAT. RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ANOTHER POTENT

JET/SHORT WAVE AND THIS FEATURE WILL TAKE MORE AIM INTO CA LATE

FRI INTO SAT BEFORE BARRELING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SUN AND OUT

INTO THE PLAINS FOR MON. HPC GENERALLY PREFERRED THE 00Z ECMWF AND

UKMET ON DAYS 3/4 OR THURS AND FRI AND THEN BEGAN TO INTRODUCE

MORE OF THE 12Z/11 ECMWF MEAN INTO THE FCST. THE BOTTOM LINE IN

THIS PATTERN WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF HIGH PRECIPITATION TOTALS

ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST... ESPECIALLY

INTO NRN CA AND THE NRN SIERRA. THIS IS WHERE THE OPERATIONAL

ECMWF AND ECMWF/GEFS MEANS FCST 5 TO 6 INCH QPF OVER THE FIVE DAYS

AND THESE NUMBERS COULD BE MODEST.

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