usedtobe Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 The new Euro has almost all of western OR and NW CA over 5" total precip through 240 hours with an even stronger system headed in at 240. Whenever you get a closed off upper high over or near AK it opens the floodgates. The northern Sierra should really do well, with the southern sections getting less but still more than recently. Yep, that' a great teleconnection. Several years ago Rich Grumm and I looked through the unified precipitation analyses and he objectively ranked the top twenty 72 hr rainfall events for a box that included northern CA as far south as monterey. 7 of the 10 biggest events have that signature of having that high in their anomaly. Even the ones that don't show red had plenty of high heights there. . That was the reason for starting this thread. To me this looked like a big dog. JB's vaunted pattern change is happening right there and it's not a cold conus but a wet pa nw. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/California_major_rains.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The new Euro has almost all of western OR and NW CA over 5" total precip through 240 hours with an even stronger system headed in at 240. Whenever you get a closed off upper high over or near AK it opens the floodgates. The northern Sierra should really do well, with the southern sections getting less but still more than recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 And in the Sierra range and the russian river basin, that probably will be underdone because of the lower resolution of course providing the models have the pattern right. Yeah, I told our CSMs today to expect 10+" next week in Pac NW, including PDX and SEA. Maybe I was too far north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Lol, Ji suicide alert. That 850 anomaly map was common with quite a few of the events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Steve, I think you and I are the only ones interested in this upcoming firehose. I looked at the CPC D+11 superensemble mean that identified dates based on the 5 day period centered on day 11. two of the 10 dates identified were top 10 rainfall events since 1950 for the SFO/SAC up to almost the OR border events. These type events typically are not limited to one but come with multiple storms. You can kind of see that by looking at the 180 hr ens members and then another grouping around day 11. Note how many members show yellows along the west coast of CA on the two separate panels Oh you aren't the only ones. I can guarantee you the entire W coast and ski resorts all along it are interested as well. They need the moisture bad. There have been a handful of ski resorts in OR/CA that had to close down for a short time. It is depressing out there. It does seem that the Pac NW/California Coastal Range will see a much more favorable flow in this pattern than the Sierra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 This is just incredibly bad. I can't remember when it has been pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Oh you aren't the only ones. I can guarantee you the entire W coast and ski resorts all along it are interested as well. They need the moisture bad. There have been a handful of ski resorts in OR/CA that had to close down for a short time. It is depressing out there. It does seem that the Pac NW/California Coastal Range will see a much more favorable flow in this pattern than the Sierra. I wouldn't count out the northern parts of the sierra range with the anomaly pattern shown. They still are in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I wouldn't count out the northern parts of the sierra range with the anomaly pattern shown. They still are in play. I agree, Wes . Tahoe area and points N look to score some impressive totals if the trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The 00Z Globals continue to advertise a very wet and stormy pattern shaping up for the Pacific NW and N CA. I did notice that the trend has been to point the 'firehose' a touch more S into OR and N CA with the heavier moisture. This bodes well with the studies that Wes has provided and certainly is encouraging for those areas that have seen little in the way of moisture this past Fall and early Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Last year at this time at 8200 feet at Squaw resort near Tahoe 292 inches had fallen, this year only 26 (yes twenty-six) inches have fallen with all of it falling before December 15th, and 24" out of the 26" so far falling before November 20th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 This is just incredibly bad. I can't remember when it has been pathetic. I also have not seen it that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Last year at this time at 8200 feet at Squaw resort near Tahoe 292 inches had fallen, this year only 26 (yes twenty-six) inches have fallen with all of it falling before December 15th, and 24" out of the 26" so far falling before November 20th... I saw that on their website and yes it is incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I saw that on their website and yes it is incredible. Incredable to say the least. The only nice thing up there is when they are not getting the snow at least its sunny and pleasent out so you can bike or go fishsing still! Here in the east if we don't get snow its usually raining and crappy. Gotta love the sierras! I know the dry weather is putting hurt on the water concerns but eventually it has to change. I also feel super bad for the ski resorts. Sugar Bowl, Boreal, Tahoe Donner all have to be doing pretty cruddy even if they are making snow because during the day temps are getting into the 50s with full sunshine. Hopefully this will change next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 A lot of our mountains here are mostly bare even up at 11k ft, its ugly. Should get an inch or two of snow with the arctic front but still waiting for some big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 A lot of our mountains here are mostly bare even up at 11k ft, its ugly. Should get an inch or two of snow with the arctic front but still waiting for some big storms. Your in the Wasatch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Your in the Wasatch? Yes, well just to the west of them. Here is an example of what I mean, I am not sure how tall this mountian is that the camera is looking at but it certainly gets to the point. http://psych.byu.edu...es/Picture1.jpg Mt. Timpanogus is 11k something feet and there are just patches of snow on it with the summit mostly bare. There was as much or maybe more snow on the mountains in August than there is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Yes, well just to the west of them. Here is an example of what I mean, I am not sure how tall this mountian is that the camera is looking at but it certainly gets to the point. http://psych.byu.edu...es/Picture1.jpg Mt. Timpanogus is 11k something feet and there are just patches of snow on it with the summit mostly bare. There was as much or maybe more snow on the mountains in August than there is now. Wow. That's incredable. I really hope all you guys out west cash in next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 18Z ensemble mean QPF forecasts. Mean forecasts usually underdo the max qpf in the mountains. The amounts are getting to be impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 18Z ensemble mean QPF forecasts. Mean forecasts usually underdo the max qpf in the mountains. The amounts are getting to be impressive. As are the snow totals. If you believe the Euro and the Euro ensemble, almost two feet of snow will fall in Seattle over the next ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Very impressive amounts of rain at the lower levels and snow for the Cascades/N Sierra Range. Shasta and Tahoe could well be measuring snow totals by the foot range in a very short time frame. I may just have to head W for a ski trip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 Steve, the ens mean is showing an impressive pw plume/atmospheric river impinging upon CA on Jan 20th with the PW anomalies aoa 4 SD. I'm guessing the moisture flux anomalies would be even stronger but haven't look at them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 The 12Z GEFS ens mean continues to paint a really wet picture for northern CA northward with a 10 inch bulleye during the 6-10 period and another 4 inch plus the 5 days following that. This won't help southern CA that much but the Sacramento river basin and the water reservoirs that served the SFO should do really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Good call on the Sierra Nevada guys. The GEFS and the ECMWF 12Z deterministic both sink a large vortex into the GOA day 6-8 with a strong cold front interacting with the SIerra. The early stuff will be warm and relegated to high elevation snow, but the potential for a huge storm and/or a number of cold fronts day 6-9 seems plausible for much better mid elevation snow as well. The Sierra Nevada ski season literally has been saved from an utter seasonal disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 An interesting blog, some here may find it interesting. They combine skiing out west with weather. Some of the discussion is actually pretty good. http://www.powdiction.com/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 Good call on the Sierra Nevada guys. The GEFS and the ECMWF 12Z deterministic both sink a large vortex into the GOA day 6-8 with a strong cold front interacting with the SIerra. The early stuff will be warm and relegated to high elevation snow, but the potential for a huge storm and/or a number of cold fronts day 6-9 seems plausible for much better mid elevation snow as well. The Sierra Nevada ski season literally has been saved from an utter seasonal disaster. Let's hope it occurs. That teleconnection is a really strong one as such a strong ridge almost always has a major downstream response. Unfortunately for snow levers, the conus usually floods with warmth, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Let's hope it occurs. That teleconnection is a really strong one as such a strong ridge almost always has a major downstream response. Unfortunately for snow levers, the conus usually floods with warmth, Someone in the medium range thread made a nice call over a week ago with regards to this upcoming blocking pattern teleconnecting to a -PNA quite well. Nice to see a big pattern change for the western CONUS. As for the plains...there is still hope even in this pattern across portions of the north and central. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 An interesting blog, some here may find it interesting. They combine skiing out west with weather. Some of the discussion is actually pretty good. http://www.powdiction.com/index.html That is a nice site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Todays models are leaning toward more jet supression(sp) I noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Still a good deal of snow for Seattle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Guidance continues to advertise a very active pattern for the Pacific NW/N CA. The ensembles are in good agreement that the moisture plume will persist and possible increase in frequency as we move further into late January. In the near term, the Olympic/Cascades Ranges may well score some impressive snow totals with levels lowering to the 2500 ft range over the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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