Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 who is reviewing euro I'll take a crack: It gives winter weather lovers the middle finger though the balance of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Only in-situ cad at best -- high is well offshore by the time precip arrives. Maybe a brief period of something frozen, to be quickly washed away. More likely, will just start as a cold rain. Nothing to hold that high in -- that one is going nowhere. well it may be in-situ at best, but i would still be happy at this point to see something frozen. this winter isnt really that unusual from most se winters where anything i can get will make me happy (the last two years were just anomalies lol) honestly, after the last two years i never expected much this winter anyway (although i was trying to be optimistic) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Not buying a pattern change in February. This pattern we are in seems very resilient. It's just amazing to see the warmth for the rest of this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Not buying a pattern change in February. This pattern we are in seems very resilient. It's just amazing to see the warmth for the rest of this month. It is resilient but it's going to have to change sometime. I don't know when that'll be though, could be April for all I know. I'm glad I didn't put winterizer on my grass this year. It's almost time for pre-emergent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Euro summary: snow in the mountains late tomorrow/tomorrow night and again later Saturday. Cold later tomorrow-Sunday.Then CAD event looks unimpressive, like the GFS but we will get more rain. Brief cold shot following that- then it gets ugly for winter lovers- warm spell and dry. Possible saving grace- at 240 the Greenland area is seeing higher heights, but at that time the Pacific is not cooperating. But maybe later month- Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It is resilient but it's going to have to change sometime. I don't know when that'll be though, could be April for all I know. I'm glad I didn't put winterizer on my grass this year. It's almost time for pre-emergent. It's not going to be in the next 6 weeks. After mid-February it get's tough with the sun angle to get accumulating snow. I have never had to mow my lawn in the winter, that I recall, I have had to mow it twice since Thanksgiving. I might put down pre-emergent at the end of January, if the crabgrass get's going then the pre-emergent will be useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Not buying a pattern change in February. This pattern we are in seems very resilient. It's just amazing to see the warmth for the rest of this month. Not exactly correct, Fri-Sunday will be below average with two mountain snow events. Then only two milder days before another cooler shot. So not really warm all the rest of the month. Could be 65 every day, cold mongers should take whatever they can get.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 We're going to see a couple of cold days, followed by a warm up, then some rain, then a couple more cold days, followed by another warm up, then some rain, and repeat all the way to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Not exactly correct, Fri-Sunday will be below average with two mountain snow events. Then only two milder days before another cooler shot. So not really warm all the rest of the month. Could be 65 every day, cold mongers should take whatever they can get.... This month will be above average, way above average. Cool shots sporadically, but overall the trend is for warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 In the shorter term, I think flurries and scattered snow showers look very possible in the favored mountain areas of north GA tomorrow evening as 850mb rh is abundant and 850 temps crash to less than -10. The Mountains of WNC should get 1-4" in the favored upslope areas with lesser amounts elsewhere in the mountains. NWS FFC is on board.. Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 221 PM EST WED JAN 11 2012 ...LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA... .LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY WILL DRAG A SECOND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE ON THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1 INCH. GAZ001>009-015-016-120330- /O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0001.120113T0000Z-120113T1200Z/ DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS- LUMPKIN-WHITE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND 221 PM EST WED JAN 11 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NORTH GEORGIA... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAFAYETTE...TO ELLIJAY...TO CLEVELAND...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. * HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW. * TIMING...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EVENT WILL BEGIN AS RAIN AND TRANSITION TO SNOW AFTER 7 PM. * IMPACTS...WITH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO ELEVATED SURFACES. HOWEVER...FREEZING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN ICY PATCHES ON ROADS. * WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT...FALLING TO THE LOW 20S FRIDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It still isn't as bad as January 2008 warm spells imby, we saw more 70s when it wasn't cold that month and severe weather iirc also that month. I think the lows have hurt our averages for January 2012 more than the highs have because of the rain/thunderstorms and fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Just for the far northern counties.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Just for the far northern counties.. Just got the advisory on my phone. Shocked that FFC was the first in the region to pull the trigger.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Just got the advisory on my phone. Shocked that FFC was the first in the region to pull the trigger.. Yeah I was surprised also. They are either first or last...no in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Just got the advisory on my phone. Shocked that FFC was the first in the region to pull the trigger.. Probably because of the ongoing flood/wind products further north-east...will likely be a lull in winter weather advisories up that away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yeah I was surprised also. They are either first or last...no in between. Yeah that is very true. I think they have memories of January 2010 when we had a strong Arctic front move through similar to this setup. We had a brief period of light rain that afternoon before switching to snow showers as the Cold air moved in. The light mix of the rain that went to snow showers caused roadways to turn into skating rinks and then the dusting of snow on top caused major problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Just for the far northern counties.. wow i didnt expect to see that today lol. of course my county is right next to white but isnt included i would love to see a few flakes though! as for the sun angle comments and all the griping, this IS the se and this IS a normal winter! it can, and has, snowed a lot through mid march. just because its not constant cold doesnt mean we wont see winter wx. as is evidenced by the new advisory issued for tomorrow when most were expecting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 wow i didnt expect to see that today lol. of course my county is right next to white but isnt included i would love to see a few flakes though! as for the sun angle comments and all the griping, this IS the se and this IS a normal winter! it can, and has, snowed a lot through mid march. just because its not constant cold doesnt mean we wont see winter wx. as is evidenced by the new advisory issued for tomorrow when most were expecting it A normal SE winter does not have anomalies of over +5 for the month of December and the first third of January. It just doesn't, this winter had been way above average for many portions of the southeast. This could change but I hear so many keep saying this is a normal SE winter and the data just does not support that claim. Please don't think I'm picking on you, this was just the most recent time I've seen it said. There are plenty others who keep saying this and I think they are just as wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It still isn't as bad as January 2008 warm spells imby, we saw more 70s when it wasn't cold that month and severe weather iirc also that month. I think the lows have hurt our averages for January 2012 more than the highs have because of the rain/thunderstorms and fog. 2007 and 2008 were both warm. I remember the therm. rocking 80 degree days in Dec. and January (2008). I do not see ayone in the SE (outside the typically warm locations, i.e. Florida) experiencing that this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Seems like alot of depression lately..Cheer up folks its only weather..It is what it is..Instead of snow im hoping it rains for the ones that need it....As we all know droughts are notorious... Also could someone upload the Chris Farley video of El Nino...Always got a kick out that ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenny Marie Photo Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Would be nice if this could sneak across the border into SC NWS FFC is on board.. Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 221 PM EST WED JAN 11 2012 ...LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA... .LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY WILL DRAG A SECOND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE ON THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1 INCH. GAZ001>009-015-016-120330- /O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0001.120113T0000Z-120113T1200Z/ DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS- LUMPKIN-WHITE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND 221 PM EST WED JAN 11 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NORTH GEORGIA... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAFAYETTE...TO ELLIJAY...TO CLEVELAND...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. * HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW. * TIMING...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EVENT WILL BEGIN AS RAIN AND TRANSITION TO SNOW AFTER 7 PM. * IMPACTS...WITH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO ELEVATED SURFACES. HOWEVER...FREEZING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN ICY PATCHES ON ROADS. * WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT...FALLING TO THE LOW 20S FRIDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 wow i didnt expect to see that today lol. of course my county is right next to white but isnt included i would love to see a few flakes though! as for the sun angle comments and all the griping, this IS the se and this IS a normal winter! it can, and has, snowed a lot through mid march. just because its not constant cold doesnt mean we wont see winter wx. as is evidenced by the new advisory issued for tomorrow when most were expecting it GSP hasn't put out the afternoon afd. I think their criteria is different from FFA. You might not get the WWA but you still might get some snow. Update: Here is the afd....not as aggresive as FFC .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AT 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT ON FRIDAY. A CHANNELED VORT LOBE MOVING AROUND THIS LOW WILL CROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE EAST INTO SATURDAY...BUT OUR AREA REMAINS BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES. UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NC MOUNTAINS BORDERING TN...BUT WILL BE LIMITED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE DIMINISHES. AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS APPROACH TWO INCHES ON SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS ON THE TN BORDER. NO ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...GIVING THE NEXT SHIFT A CHANCE TO EVALUATE SNOW POTENTIAL FURTHER. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF STATES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND EIGHT DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COLD ADVECTION BY FRIDAY...RECOVERING TO ONLY AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 A normal SE winter does not have anomalies of over +5 for the month of December and the first third of January. It just doesn't, this winter had been way above average for many portions of the southeast. This could change but I hear so many keep saying this is a normal SE winter and the data just does not support that claim. Please don't think I'm picking on you, this was just the most recent time I've seen it said. There are plenty others who keep saying this and I think they are just as wrong. In my opinion This has been a normal winter. Sure at times its been a little warm but not excessive. I have seen many winters with long stretches of 70s for highs. Not to say that is normal either but lets be honest here. Temps averaging in the 50s for highs and lows in the 30s are normal for the deep South. Furthermore the average amount of Snow is about 1-2 inches in the deep south. That also usually only comes from one or two different days out of the whole winter. Keep in mind winter averages pretty wet so that means a lot more rain and less wintry precip indicating temps normally are warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Hey everyone a separate thread has been made for the Thursday/Friday clipper http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31800-thursdayfriday-the-13th-clipper/page__gopid__1267471#entry1267471 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 In my opinion This has been a normal winter. Sure at times its been a little warm but not excessive. I have seen many winters with long stretches of 70s for highs. Not to say that is normal either but lets be honest here. Temps averaging in the 50s for highs and lows in the 30s are normal for the deep South. Furthermore the average amount of Snow is about 1-2 inches in the deep south. That also usually only comes from one or two different days out of the whole winter. Keep in mind winter averages pretty wet so that means a lot more rain and less wintry precip indicating temps normally are warm. I think a lot of it has to do with what the meaning of Avg. is, if you are counting back to the 1950's then no this isn't average. However from 1999 to now it's probably more of an average year. Some can correct me if I'm wrong but last winter was very abnormal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 In my opinion This has been a normal winter. Sure at times its been a little warm but not excessive. I have seen many winters with long stretches of 70s for highs. Not to say that is normal either but lets be honest here. Temps averaging in the 50s for highs and lows in the 30s are normal for the deep South. Furthermore the average amount of Snow is about 1-2 inches in the deep south. That also usually only comes from one or two different days out of the whole winter. Keep in mind winter averages pretty wet so that means a lot more rain and less wintry precip indicating temps normally are warm. Fair enough, I just keep getting stuck on the monthly departures. As has been mentioned before it comes down to our lows being so high more than our daytime high temps pushing the numbers up. I just can't recall a winter with so few cold shots that were so short lived. The nights this winter with the exception of a few have been very warm for winter, frequently in the 50's. I've had the window open more times than I can remember this winter and honestly that's not normal to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 A normal SE winter does not have anomalies of over +5 for the month of December and the first third of January. It just doesn't, this winter had been way above average for many portions of the southeast. This could change but I hear so many keep saying this is a normal SE winter and the data just does not support that claim. Please don't think I'm picking on you, this was just the most recent time I've seen it said. There are plenty others who keep saying this and I think they are just as wrong. i wasnt referring specifically to the departures, however, until the last two years it WAS that warm a lot. we can agree to disagree but the last two years were HUGE winters here. the winter so far this year has been performing similar to most other se winters. we just dont get that much snow, ice or long, sustained cold. its usually a matter of timing. a couple of cold days and overrunning or a storm. not sure how old you are, but i am in my 40s and i have to say, that this winter has seemed "normal". the last two years i had over four FEET of snow and almost no ice. snow in the gound over 30 days last winter alone. the problem is people seem to be equating those two years with a normal winter, and it isnt. i have been on these boards forever, starting reading (not posting much) on WWBB. this is almost always how it is with the models, fantasy storms, cold 10-days out etc. i know we are frustrated (i am too) by the lack of interesting weather this year. however, to me this is NORMAL for a n ga winter. a lot of winters have jan temps in the 70s and yes it can snow immediately thereafter and stick! so far this year it seems pretty normal, lows in teh 20s and 30s highs in the 40s and 50s with a couple of 60 degree days thrown in. this is a normal n ga winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCMET Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Hey- Count your blessings...at least this is not like 2005-2006 or 1998-1999 ;p Fair enough, I just keep getting stuck on the monthly departures. As has been mentioned before it comes down to our lows being so high more than our daytime high temps pushing the numbers up. I just can't recall a winter with so few cold shots that were so short lived. The nights this winter with the exception of a few have been very warm for winter, frequently in the 50's. I've had the window open more times than I can remember this winter and honestly that's not normal to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 A normal SE winter does not have anomalies of over +5 for the month of December and the first third of January. It just doesn't, this winter had been way above average for many portions of the southeast. This could change but I hear so many keep saying this is a normal SE winter and the data just does not support that claim. Please don't think I'm picking on you, this was just the most recent time I've seen it said. There are plenty others who keep saying this and I think they are just as wrong. Firstly, why is December considered a month to collect so much "winter data" when it only carries 11 days of actual "winter"? How above average were those 11 days last month (I really haven't looked to be honest)? Also, temps recorded at - GSP for example - never ever match what many of us record at our home locations. Right now, my OBS reads 61 degrees, yet the Davis (where I am) reads 55 degrees. I have a constant 5-7 degree difference between my actual and reported/recorded temps most days out of the year. Averages may not always tell the whole story. I guess I'm just not blown away by a 5 degree difference (average). Data can be used to make all kinds of cases, but experience is a better teacher. The only thing that seems odd to many of us is the above average rain (at least here in the GSP area). It would seem that 2009 and 2010 were far more departed from normal than this - these first 3 weeks of winter - have been. BTW, do you not find it slightly curious that you often seem to discredit something "so many" people agree on? Just wondering... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Firstly, why is December considered a month to collect so much "winter data" when it only carries 11 days of actual "winter"? How above average were those 11 days last month (I really haven't looked to be honest)? Also, temps recorded at - GSP for example - never ever match what many of us record at our home locations. Right now, my OBS reads 61 degrees, yet the Davis (where I am) reads 55 degrees. I have a constant 5-7 degree difference between my actual and reported/recorded temps most days out of the year. Averages may not always tell the whole story. I guess I'm just not blown away by a 5 degree difference (average). Data can be used to make all kinds of cases, but experience is a better teacher. The only thing that seems odd to many of us is the above average rain (at least here in the GSP area). It would seem that 2009 and 2010 were far more departed from normal than this - these first 3 weeks of winter - have been. BTW, do you not find it slightly curious that you often seem to discredit something "so many" people agree on? Just wondering... December 1st is the first day of Meteorological winter therefore it carries 31 days of data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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