rduwx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 @150 all our cold air goes *poof* still it's close....at 500mb it has a good look to me until 144...anyone care to chime in? The high to the north slides off the coast and brings our cold w/ it. I noticed this on last nights 0z run. Last night it had a lot of us in NC starting as ice then quickly changing to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 In the shorter term, I think flurries and scattered snow showers look very possible in the favored mountain areas of north GA tomorrow evening as 850mb rh is abundant and 850 temps crash to less than -10. The Mountains of WNC should get 1-4" in the favored upslope areas with lesser amounts elsewhere in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Ice ice baby east if the mtns. A winter storm is a winter storm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Crazy Hailstorm just moved through Dalton,GA.....Impressive stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 On a good note, the Medium range looks much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The look imo is not your classic overrunning CAD setup, not even close. If we do get some freezing rain it should be short lived with the amount of warm air that will be pumped out of the GoM. The High pressure sliding off the coast quickly and being as far south as modeled is also not your typical ice setup. I just don't think this will get anything substantial done, perhaps it would start as freezing rain but it would seem to quickly transition over as surface temps rise. I just don't see enough of a source for cold air and the front type setup with a Low pressure in the north is discouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 There might be some in-situ cad on the the 12z gfs but I really don't look for it to last to long before warming up to just rain. We need that high to the north to stay put a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 There's not going to be any ice storm with a cold frontal passage. Maybe some marginal frozen in the favored regions for a brief period, but the GFS show no winter storm through 180 hrs, verbatim. Now if cold air is slower to move out, or we start to see a wave develop along the tail end of the front, maybe the story changes. I think Pattern Suck Warnings will be hoisted in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 well if history is any indication, cad events dont usually start showing up well on the models and its the trends you want to watch. if it trends colder, wetter, lower dewpoints etc. at this point i dont trust anything past a few days and am taking the model runs with a grain of salt. i just hope things trend in our favor for once for a CAD lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 well if history is any indication, cad events dont usually start showing up well on the models and its the trends you want to watch. if it trends colder, wetter, lower dewpoints etc. at this point i dont trust anything past a few days and am taking the model runs with a grain of salt. i just hope things trend in our favor for once for a CAD lol It's kind of hard to tell but from 18z to 12z it does appear it has trended colder for that storm. Hopefully like you said it can continue and we can have something to watch. Does Euro flirt with it? Considering it had a totally different solution last night? Guess we'll know shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The 12z GFS is another nail in the January winter weather coffin. Huge SE ridge devolops pumping 850 0C line north of Maine. PNA is terrible. No cold air intrusion beyond a frontal passage very late in the run. Our best chance for snow is in January and it looks like that will join December as a snowless month. I'm afraid I'm with Lookout, just feels like a lost winter to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Only in-situ cad at best -- high is well offshore by the time precip arrives. Maybe a brief period of something frozen, to be quickly washed away. More likely, will just start as a cold rain. Nothing to hold that high in -- that one is going nowhere. It's kind of hard to tell but from 18z to 12z it does appear it has trended colder for that storm. Hopefully like you said it can continue and we can have something to watch. Does Euro flirt with it? Considering it had a totally different solution last night? Guess we'll know shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'll be posting maps in another thread of the weather pattern leading up to The Storm of The Century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Lol.. its gonna be snowing in about 36 hours. Yeah. At least parts of TN and some in the mts will pick up a few inches maybe. Token flakes maybe for a wider audience. Prolly won't be a big impact, but hey, anything will be infinitely better than what we've got so far. Maybe we can hold the pattern suck warnings for another 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'll be posting maps in another thread of the weather pattern leading up to The Storm of The Century. Well at least if we aren't going to have much winter (FTR, i am still quite optimistic that February will rock), we might as well have a thread for the storm that would make ANY weather board drool. I can't imagine this place if we were able to track a storm like that from 5-6 days out with such accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'll be posting maps in another thread of the weather pattern leading up to The Storm of The Century. And this is going on When ? or did I miss something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Only in-situ cad at best -- high is well offshore by the time precip arrives. Maybe a brief period of something frozen, to be quickly washed away. More likely, will just start as a cold rain. Nothing to hold that high in -- that one is going nowhere. I'm just trying to look to something. Given how much change keeps happening just at 500mb on the NAM it might end up something more...big grain of salt of course....call me an optimist but I aint closing the door on it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Does anyone have any data for the wInter starting December 2003 through March 2004? Was there. La Nina then? If I am not mistaken, that winter sucked except for the one big snow (one of the CLT areas biggest snowstorms ever) in the last week of Feb 2004. That is all I remember. I guess I am am trying to figure out any winters that correlate to this one. As for people jumping the train on this winter already?? Are you serious? Please folks...we have PLENTY of time. For example: at the close of winter in 1958, the Charlotte, NC area, along with a LOT of other SE areas had back to back to back to back snowstorms almost weekly!! My Mother-in-Law always talks abOut how that winter sucked until March! Just food for thought to all the "cliff jumpers". LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Does anyone have any data for the wInter starting December 2003 through March 2004? Was there. La Nina then? If I am not mistaken, that winter sucked except for the one big snow (one of the CLT areas biggest snowstorms ever) in the last week of Feb 2004. That is all I remember. I guess I am am trying to figure out any winters that correlate to this one. As for people jumping the train on this winter already?? Are you serious? Please folks...we have PLENTY of time. For example: at the close of winter in 1958, the Charlotte, NC area, along with a LOT of other SE areas had back to back to back to back snowstorms almost weekly!! My Mother-in-Law always talks abOut how that winter sucked until March! Just food for thought to all the "cliff jumpers". LOL Here you go: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/events/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Does anyone have any data for the wInter starting December 2003 through March 2004? Was there. La Nina then? If I am not mistaken, that winter sucked except for the one big snow (one of the CLT areas biggest snowstorms ever) in the last week of Feb 2004. That is all I remember. I guess I am am trying to figure out any winters that correlate to this one. As for people jumping the train on this winter already?? Are you serious? Please folks...we have PLENTY of time. For example: at the close of winter in 1958, the Charlotte, NC area, along with a LOT of other SE areas had back to back to back to back snowstorms almost weekly!! My Mother-in-Law always talks abOut how that winter sucked until March! Just food for thought to all the "cliff jumpers". LOL We were in a neutral El-nino with very slightly positive anomalies for that time frame. Average was about +.4. The AO and NAO both leaned negative during that time frame but they did go positive from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 We were in a neutral El-nino with very slightly positive anomalies for that time frame. Average was about +.4. The AO and NAO both leaned negative during that time frame but they did go positive from time to time. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Here you go: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/events/ Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Thank you! sure here are three links which you can easily get that type of info. If you take a look it will give you a better picture than I was able to in a post. monthly ENSO index http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm daily AO index ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii daily NAO index ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Euro is falling more in line with GFS for the storm next week. Has a 1032 1012 high sliding OTS just before the rain moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The 12z GFS is another nail in the January winter weather coffin. Huge SE ridge devolops pumping 850 0C line north of Maine. PNA is terrible. No cold air intrusion beyond a frontal passage very late in the run. Our best chance for snow is in January and it looks like that will join December as a snowless month. I'm afraid I'm with Lookout, just feels like a lost winter to me. I actually think February averages more snow in NC than any other month. However, I think we have had more snow here in December and January since 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 sure here are three links which you can easily get that type of info. If you take a look it will give you a better picture than I was able to in a post. monthly ENSO index http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm daily AO index ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.n...1.current.ascii daily NAO index ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.n...1.current.ascii And this link give you the AO/NAO and PNA links on one page. ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 who is reviewing euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 03-04 actually featured multiple snows in January, including supercad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 who is reviewing euro Not really much to review just more of the same in the LR. It did look more like the GFS for next week although it's nothing but rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Not really much to review just more of the same in the LR. It did look more like the GFS for next week although it's nothing but rain. ok thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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