Lowpressure Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 GFS almost has that "we dont know whats going on so we will take the middle of the road" look to it after about 200hrs. Very zonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 GFS almost has that "we dont know whats going on so we will take the middle of the road" look to it after about 200hrs. Very zonal. Ya i agree. That why i am not looking to much into it. It's like cold then it's all gone. weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 This is a perfect example showing that a very cold Canada is often bad for prospects for a cold SE US since it means the cold is bottled up/it is hard to be cold "everywhere". Some of the SE US's historically coldest periods were when Canada was relatively mild because it meant Canadian air rushing down/blocking in or near Canada. Canada was still colder but much warmer anomalywise. That's why it usually doesn't bother me when Canada is relatively warm for better prospects for SE cold. Actually, I sometimes prefer it that way to give SE US cold a better chance. I look at intense Siberian cold even more negatively for similar reasons. Anyway, today's model consensus looks warmer than in recent days in the SE US for the next couple of weeks overall. The big question: will very late Jan., Feb., and/or early to mid March rock or is this entire winter going to go into the commode? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The last few runs of the GFS in the LR have looked horrible. As others have mentioned all the cold air just stays in Canada. The only comfort is in the fact that just two days ago every run of the GFS was hinting at a snow storm this weekend, maybe that LR is just a burp until we get to next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The last few runs of the GFS in the LR have looked horrible. As others have mentioned all the cold air just stays in Canada. The only comfort is in the fact that just two days ago every run of the GFS was hinting at a snow storm this weekend, maybe that LR is just a burp until we get to next week. I agree, I don't think that the models have a handle on the future pattern. Usually you could at least get an idea on the broad pattern configuration; but that has been totally untrustworthy lately (almost the whole winter). Heck, the GFS had a tropical system off the NC coast yesterday. I think our best hope right now is to focus on the short range (out to 5 days) and maybe have some mets give us meteorological ideas about the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The last few runs of the GFS in the LR have looked horrible. As others have mentioned all the cold air just stays in Canada. The only comfort is in the fact that just two days ago every run of the GFS was hinting at a snow storm this weekend, maybe that LR is just a burp until we get to next week. It's starting to show this look pretty consistently and it does have model support so it could very well be right. We might have to sacrifice the last part of January for a rocking February (see i can still be optimistic). All that said, I can see ways it goes toward cold too. Time will tell, always does....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It's starting to show this look pretty consistently and it does have model support so it could very well be right. We might have to sacrifice the last part of January for a rocking February (see i can still be optimistic). All that said, I can see ways it goes toward cold too. Time will tell, always does....... I can be optimistic as well. We've all seen some great snow and ice events in February. Of course, I hate to wait that long, but if the teleconnections set up the right way for February then it will be right in our wheel house. I think long term trends will be effected by a slightly positive PNA and the NAO following the course of it's AO buddy going into late this month and into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 This is a perfect example showing that a very cold Canada is often bad for prospects for a cold SE US since it means the cold is bottled up/it is hard to be cold "everywhere". Some of the SE US's historically coldest periods were when Canada was relatively mild because it meant Canadian air rushing down/blocking in or near Canada. Canada was still colder but much warmer anomalywise. That's why it usually doesn't bother me when Canada is relatively warm for better prospects for SE cold. Actually, I sometimes prefer it that way to give SE US cold a better chance. I look at intense Siberian cold even more negatively for similar reasons. Anyway, today's model consensus looks warmer than in recent days in the SE US for the next couple of weeks overall. The big question: will very late Jan., Feb., and/or early to mid March rock or is this entire winter going to go into the commode? I have no scientific basis for my opinion but I think so...and have thought so all along. I said a while back and I'll say again, this is the first winter in a very long time where I just had a sense back in the fall that it was going to suck. And so far that's been the case. I do have a "feeling" we will get colder toward the end of feb/march. I wouldn't be shocked if north carolina or even the northern upstate gets lucky but for us, I doubt it. And I bet you this spring will be one of those "if we only had this pattern in the winter" type deals. In other words, a lot of cold shots into april with some cad events..but of course too warm for anything other than a cold rain. Although oddly enough I think it should be pointed out that places like ms, western tn, nw al maybe have gotten a couple of small snow events...which is pretty amazing considering how awful most of the country has been this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepPounding Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 If the pattern stays similar to this I think our best shot is a CAD event which we haven't had in a while. If we can get a well located high pressure there is plenty of cold for it to shove down our way since nothing else wants to cooperate and give us snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 12z NAM says we might see some flurries on Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The 12z NAM also still continues the inconsistency of how it's handling the energy back west. This probably means nothing but it seems to have hard time knowing what it's going to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I have no scientific basis for my opinion but I think so...and have thought so all along. I said a while back and I'll say again, this is the first winter in a very long time where I just had a sense back in the fall that it was going to suck. And so far that's been the case. I do have a "feeling" we will get colder toward the end of feb/march. I wouldn't be shocked if north carolina or even the northern upstate gets lucky but for us, I doubt it. And I bet you this spring will be one of those "if we only had this pattern in the winter" type deals. In other words, a lot of cold shots into april with some cad events..but of course too warm for anything other than a cold rain. Although oddly enough I think it should be pointed out that places like ms, western tn, nw al maybe have gotten a couple of small snow events...which is pretty amazing considering how awful most of the country has been this year. How was the 1993 winter before the March snowstorm blizzard?My wife and I went to Maryland in Feb ,Valentine's weekend.We ran into the a big snowstorm going up 81 .Trucks were all other the place jack knived.We only got rain in our area. I don't remember getting any other snow except for the one in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It's starting to show this look pretty consistently and it does have model support so it could very well be right. We might have to sacrifice the last part of January for a rocking February (see i can still be optimistic). All that said, I can see ways it goes toward cold too. Time will tell, always does....... So now we're looking to February? Too funny. Did the GFS really show snow here on Sunday last night? I guess it took it away by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 EDIT: The title has the incorrect dates but the data is correct. Here's the AO and NAO, January1 - March 31 1993, Notice how high the AO got before it's fall. The lowest point occurred right before the big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 So now we're looking to February? Too funny. Did the GFS really show snow here on Sunday last night? I guess it took it away by now. That was one panel of the GFS Ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 EDIT: The title has the incorrect dates but the data is correct. Here's the AO and NAO, January1 - March 31 1993, Notice how high the AO got before it's fall. The lowest point occurred right before the big storm. Thanks for the info, this is very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 EDIT: The title has the incorrect dates but the data is correct. Here's the AO and NAO, January1 - March 31 1993, Notice how high the AO got before it's fall. The lowest point occurred right before the big storm. Hey Dacula.... Did you know that without a -NAO, it is nearly impossible to get sustained cold? You DO know what that is....don't you? (I kid, I kid!) Actually, without taking any kind of analogs, models, almanacs or wooly worms into consideration, this winter feels a whole lot like '93 to me. I really hated that winter until March. That storm was probably once in a lifetime for most of us so I am not insinuating that will happen this year but due to that one strom in my lifetime, hope will always spring eternal for snow even in the crappiest of winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I think the nao not being in the tank helped us with track. I-95 runners are great for our area Hey Dacula.... Did you know that without a -NAO, it is nearly impossible to get sustained cold? You DO know what that is....don't you? (I kid, I kid!) Actually, without taking any kind of analogs, models, almanacs or wooly worms into consideration, this winter feels a whole lot like '93 to me. I really hated that winter until March. That storm was probably once in a lifetime for most of us so I am not insinuating that will happen this year but due to that one strom in my lifetime, hope will always spring eternal for snow even in the crappiest of winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 EDIT: The title has the incorrect dates but the data is correct. Here's the AO and NAO, January1 - March 31 1993, Notice how high the AO got before it's fall. The lowest point occurred right before the big storm. The storm occurred somewhere around day 73ish which would put the NAO and AO both in positive territory when the storm hit. March 1993 was also highly anomalous with an extremely tall ridge in the west if I remember correctly and it was also a triple phaser which is not something that happens very often as we know. I think using a storm such as 1993 is not the best analog you could come up with because of just how unusual the entire system was. Because of the phasing the storm was able to pull down enormous amounts of cold air. I am actually shocked that the storm did hit during a +NAO period but when you think about how many things the storm had going for it outside the NAO and AO indices it's quite a bit more believable. The NAO also dipped slightly right before the storm hit but nothing extreme then it went right back to positive as it clobbered the southeast. Intersting storm but I would hesitate to use it as an example due to how extreme everything was with that storm. Daily values for the NAO 1993 3 5 -0.075 1993 3 6 -0.089 1993 3 7 0.142 1993 3 8 0.165 1993 3 9 -0.073 1993 3 10 -0.197 1993 3 11 -0.108 1993 3 12 0.131 1993 3 13 0.472 1993 3 14 0.644 1993 3 15 1.067 1993 3 16 1.570 1993 3 17 1.620 1993 3 18 1.462 1993 3 19 1.416 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The storm occurred somewhere around day 73ish which would put the NAO and AO both in positive territory when the storm hit. March 1993 was also highly anomalous with an extremely tall ridge in the west if I remember correctly and it was also a triple phaser which is not something that happens very often as we know. I think using a storm such as 1993 is not the best analog you could come up with because of just how unusual the entire system was. Because of the phasing the storm was able to pull down enormous amounts of cold air. I am actually shocked that the storm did hit during a +NAO period but when you think about how many things the storm had going for it outside the NAO and AO indices it's quite a bit more believable. The NAO also dipped slightly right before the storm hit but nothing extreme then it went right back to positive as it clobbered the southeast. Intersting storm but I would hesitate to use it as an example due to how extreme everything was with that storm. Daily values for the NAO 1993 3 5 -0.075 1993 3 6 -0.089 1993 3 7 0.142 1993 3 8 0.165 1993 3 9 -0.073 1993 3 10 -0.197 1993 3 11 -0.108 1993 3 12 0.131 1993 3 13 0.472 1993 3 14 0.644 1993 3 15 1.067 1993 3 16 1.570 1993 3 17 1.620 1993 3 18 1.462 1993 3 19 1.416 I wasn't coming up with an analog, someone asked what it was like leading up to the storm. After the AO tanked, the damage was done even though it went back positive. One reason it didn't stay cold for long afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 If the pattern stays similar to this I think our best shot is a CAD event which we haven't had in a while. If we can get a well located high pressure there is plenty of cold for it to shove down our way since nothing else wants to cooperate and give us snow chances. strongly agree and so does fox per their blog yesterday.... http://www.foxcarolina.com/story/16490816/wed-rain-not-wanting-ice-but-realizing-potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I wasn't coming up with an analog, someone asked what it was like leading up to the storm. After the AO tanked, the damage was done even though it went back positive. One reason it didn't stay cold for long afterwards. The AO did not tank till well after the storm was gone. The AO was on a sharp rise when the storm formed and hit. If you look back to the end of February the AO was negative for part of the month and the first few days of March. Daily AO values... 1993 3 1 -1.246 1993 3 2 -2.288 1993 3 3 -1.877 1993 3 4 -0.820 1993 3 5 0.072 1993 3 6 0.146 1993 3 7 0.154 1993 3 8 0.070 1993 3 9 0.306 1993 3 10 0.533 1993 3 11 0.679 1993 3 12 1.020 1993 3 13 1.654 1993 3 14 1.283 1993 3 15 1.838 1993 3 16 3.779 1993 3 17 3.984 1993 3 18 3.360 1993 3 19 3.379 1993 3 20 2.990 1993 3 21 2.678 1993 3 22 2.355 1993 3 23 2.058 1993 3 24 1.621 1993 3 25 1.224 1993 3 26 0.606 1993 3 27 -0.187 1993 3 28 -0.957 1993 3 29 -1.544 1993 3 30 -1.834 1993 3 31 -2.186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Tanks on the 2nd. As I said, the damage was done, the patterns shifted, and we got a big one. There will always be a lag between what the AO/NAO does and what it means for sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 @141 we are very close to a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Wake up everyone 12z might be a good look...it is certainly a step in the right direction I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 @150 all our cold air goes *poof* still it's close....at 500mb it has a good look to me until 144...anyone care to chime in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 bring it burger, I am with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Tanks on the 2nd. As I said, the damage was done, the patterns shifted, and we got a big one. There will always be a lag between what the AO/NAO does and what it means for sensible weather. We agree to disagree Steve, I could be wrong but I just don't buy this. I do believe the lag comment to be true but honestly imo (which could be wrong) it takes more than a 7-10 period of a dip in the AO to produce a pattern change especially when it rockets back up in the 10+ days leading to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 @150 all our cold air goes *poof* still it's close....at 500mb it has a good look to me until 144...anyone care to chime in? Ice ice baby east if the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The 500mb looks like a CAD setup at 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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