POWERSTROKE Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I agree with you Frosty, I believe it's just around the corner. I think Sunday may be a little surprise that may be the start of what we need, if Sunday doesn't pan out then that is ok too however if it does then we all will wander about the GFS. It did spot sorm for 3 runs and then lost it. Time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I agree frosty. Things will get better and with this pattern change i think the models are just having a really tough time.Shoot from Thur to the end of the week i have two chances of snow in my neck of the woods. May not be a lot but hey it's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 If the GFS is right, might get lucky and see my first flury of the season Friday. Probably less than 20% chance. Anyway nice upslope for the mtns could be on the way this Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 If the GFS is right, might get lucky and see my first flury of the season Friday. Probably less than 20% chance. Anyway nice upslope for the mtns could be on the way this Friday. Ya i have been watching that. It's funny local news has nothing about it and the NWS is not saying much, but it seems they always jump on the NW flow snows really late. Last time they put out an advisory the ground and roads were already white. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Things get real interesting at hr 150 GFS 0z. Unless Alans site is playing tricks on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Lanie on channel 12 just said she may have to add flurries to her forecast for the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Things get real interesting at hr 150 GFS 0z. Unless Alans site is playing tricks on me. Looks like a minor CAD event of some sort... unless I'm wrong. Frozen precip on the front end maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Things get real interesting at hr 150 GFS 0z. Unless Alans site is playing tricks on me. I can't get on alan's site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Looks like a minor CAD event of some sort... unless I'm wrong. Frozen precip on the front end maybe? Correct, maybe some on the front end but the high slides off of coast and it's mostly a rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 There's my ICE ICE BABY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I will take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Correct, maybe some on the front end but the high slides off of coast and it's mostly a rain event. Out to 180, the cold looks to be coming back in 850's with more overruning possibley getting ready to set up. Out 7-8 days off, but This fits the bill with how we are gonna most likely get our winter weather east of the apps . Sneaky shallow cold air mass wedging in/out and light overruning events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Out to 180, the cold looks to be coming back in 850's with more overruning possibley getting ready to set up. Out 7-8 days off, but This fits the bill with how we are gonna most likely get our winter weather east of the apps . Sneaky shallow cold air mass wedging in/out and light overruning events Yeah, the moisture really never makes it into NC until after the gfs truncates at 204. After that the gfs really warms us up for the rest of the run. Of couse it keeps us very active as far as wet weather but no cold. Who knows though considering how much the gfs has been bouncing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 GFS still wants to keep VODKA cold right up at the us/border alot past truncation. It's amazing looking at the tight pressure gradient, But those HP's sliding across the lakes/NE will be taping very cold/dry air. I'm no Robert, but I'd put my money on seeing a few (what use to be common) Cad evnets over the next several weeks featuring alot of overruning events. I'll take whatever frozen I can get, prefearbly snow. However this really is gonna strongly have the flavor of the mix/zr type stuff IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 GFS still wants to keep VODKA cold right up at the us/border alot past truncation. It's amazing looking at the tight pressure gradient, But those HP's sliding across the lakes/NE will be taping very cold/dry air. I'm no Robert, but I'd put my money on seeing a few (what use to be common) Cad evnets over the next several weeks featuring alot of overruning events. I'll take whatever frozen I can get, prefearbly snow. However this really is gonna strongly have the flavor of the mix/zr type stuff IMO. I have said all winter I think we in for an ice storm. We are due for one as it has been several years since we have had one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 GFS still wants to keep VODKA cold right up at the us/border alot past truncation. It's amazing looking at the tight pressure gradient, But those HP's sliding across the lakes/NE will be taping very cold/dry air. I'm no Robert, but I'd put my money on seeing a few (what use to be common) Cad evnets over the next several weeks featuring alot of overruning events. I'll take whatever frozen I can get, prefearbly snow. However this really is gonna strongly have the flavor of the mix/zr type stuff IMO. Can we say back door cold front with overunning ICE STORM??? Like I said few posts back I agree with you that's what this pattern favors if we gonna have any winter weather, I like very cold/dry air to my north ready to be tap!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 anything wintry is better than cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I agree 100% I doubt models have a grasp on just how cold that air is, and like you said it is sneaky and seeps south ever chance it gets. I think we will have a good overunning snow/ice threat within the next two weeks jmo.... Me too. Any winter where I've already seen a 19, and a couple of low 20's is not a warm winter to me...just waiting on some timing T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Anybody looked at the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 must not have been interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 must not have been interesting Lol ya that's what i was thinking. Reading the boards not many are talking about the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 In the longer range, Euro says bye bye cold air. Keeps it all in Canada. Winter isn't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 In the longer range, Euro says bye bye cold air. Keeps it all in Canada. Winter isn't happening. But before that it shows a CAD precip event in the Carolinas along about next Wed-Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Ya same with the GFS. By the end of the run we are mild. Hey look on the bright side how avvurate has the models been in the long rang lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 But before that it shows a CAD precip event in the Carolinas along about next Wed-Thursday. Hey Cheez i liked your comment about the mountains getting some snow earlier. There has not been a lot of talk about it but i think we could get a pretty good period of upslope from this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 In the longer range, Euro says bye bye cold air. Keeps it all in Canada. Winter isn't happening. So back to the story book that has comprised this Winter; the 0Z run of the GFS was basically the same; I am so tired of this Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 So far from now to about the 18 looks better than the last run. Have a couple snow chances and maybe some freezing rain and then looks like another strong cold front with more snow around the 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidyr2k Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Winter is far from over, my friends. We may not have the locked in cold like we apparently expected after two years of -NAO, but we've gotten many frzn precip events w/o it in the past. I love those times when we beat the odds. Worth keeping hope alive, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 From about hour 200 through the rest of the run looks zonal, but not reading into it a lot because the models have been switching so much. Also there looks like a lot of cold air right around the boarder but never really makes it down.Also looking at the NAO it seems to want to go negative at the end of two weeks but who noes, AO is going complete opposite it was in Dec, tanking,the PNA is going neg in short term but by two weeks looks to be going positive but that long range and things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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