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Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion III


Rankin5150

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agreed. Greenland stays cold, western Alaska stays cold and stormy. The pacific and other areas aren't lining up, and when the models do try to build a western ridge, its usually wrong, since the Pacific flow is so strong. It looks bleak for a while yet.

Yea looks like we might need to check back in on the first week of Feb and see where we're going. What a stinker of a run. We gotta hope Euro sees something the GFS doesn't cause the GFS was just terrible for anyone outside of the Northwest that wants snow. At one point in the run the only portions of the US that are in freezing weather is the NE and the fringes of the northern most states in the heartland.

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Yea looks like we might need to check back in on the first week of Feb and see where we're going. What a stinker of a run. We gotta hope Euro sees something the GFS doesn't cause the GFS was just terrible for anyone outside of the Northwest that wants snow. At one point in the run the only portions of the US that are in freezing weather is the NE and the fringes of the northern most states in the heartland.

:axe: :axe: :axe:

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On the GFS per the 12z run from 171 to 336 sfc temps never go below freezing anywhere in the SE except for a few hours of a very very small pocket of cold air in the SW mountains of NC. :yikes:

The only thing we have going for us on this ONE run is that the GFS maybe overdoing it with the warmth and of course it's just one run. On to the ENS and Euro

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On the GFS per the 12z run from 171 to 336 sfc temps never go below freezing anywhere in the SE except for a few hours of a very very small pocket of cold air in the SW mountains of NC. :yikes:

The only thing we have going for us on this ONE run is that the GFS maybe overdoing it with the warmth and of course it's just one run. On to the ENS and Euro

Yeah wasn't it just about a week or so ago it was showing monster blowtorch and even though today is fairly warm the hades warmth it was showing didn't materialize......hopefully it way overdoing the warmth.

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the 12z GFS handled the ull coming out of texas in a completely different way than the last 2, or maybe 3 model runs.

I don't trust anything beyond that ULL ejecting out of texas. If that phases, it will change the flow, and I'd imagine, slow things down a bit.

Regardless - this winter is a nightmare for everyone. Even the poor northerners, who I generally loathe for their weeniedom when they only get a 6 inch storm... but this year, I kinda feel bad for them as well.

The only positive thing I can take from this entire winter is that it hasn't hit 70 here in Nashville in a long time. I would have thought, given the ridiculously warm teleconnections, that'd we'd be pushing +10 anomalies, yet we're still in the +3-4 range for the last two months.

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the 12z GFS handled the ull coming out of texas in a completely different way than the last 2, or maybe 3 model runs.

I don't trust anything beyond that ULL ejecting out of texas. If that phases, it will change the flow, and I'd imagine, slow things down a bit.

Regardless - this winter is a nightmare for everyone. Even the poor northerners, who I generally loathe for their weeniedom when they only get a 6 inch storm... but this year, I kinda feel bad for them as well.

The only positive thing I can take from this entire winter is that it hasn't hit 70 here in Nashville in a long time. I would have thought, given the ridiculously warm teleconnections, that'd we'd be pushing +10 anomalies, yet we're still in the +3-4 range for the last two months.

You can thank all the moisture in the ground and cloudy days. I've just seen the sun pop out an hour or so ago for the first time since last Thursday. This is gonna go down as one of, if not the wettest Sept-Feb+ periods I can ever remember. rest assured come April when I plant the garden it will go 360 degrees in the opposite direction.

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On the GFS per the 12z run from 171 to 336 sfc temps never go below freezing anywhere in the SE except for a few hours of a very very small pocket of cold air in the SW mountains of NC. :yikes:

The only thing we have going for us on this ONE run is that the GFS maybe overdoing it with the warmth and of course it's just one run. On to the ENS and Euro

I would imagine thanks to the raging positive AO on the GFS in the LR.

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Is it too early to call this winter DOA? Getting close. Can only beat a dead horse for so long.

Transient -NAO should get temps down to average in the SE for late January, but still looking towards above average temperatures through February. A tough year for snow lovers indeed.

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the 12z GFS handled the ull coming out of texas in a completely different way than the last 2, or maybe 3 model runs.

I don't trust anything beyond that ULL ejecting out of texas. If that phases, it will change the flow, and I'd imagine, slow things down a bit.

Regardless - this winter is a nightmare for everyone. Even the poor northerners, who I generally loathe for their weeniedom when they only get a 6 inch storm... but this year, I kinda feel bad for them as well.

The only positive thing I can take from this entire winter is that it hasn't hit 70 here in Nashville in a long time. I would have thought, given the ridiculously warm teleconnections, that'd we'd be pushing +10 anomalies, yet we're still in the +3-4 range for the last two months.

Yeah, probably thanks to the wetness/ abundant southern stream systems. If a typically dryer near non existent stj pattern associated with the setup had been prevalent, then that 70 mark wouldn't have been a problem.

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We keep discussing specifics of the 240 hour and 384 hour GFS or whatever- just check out this difference between the GFS and CMC in only 78 hours:

post-357-0-99521100-1327427728.gif

post-357-0-94917200-1327427761.gif

Just a cautionary tale- in this pattern especially do not trust any models exact depiction of the scenario in the medium range. That is all.

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Tony you have a real way with words, your posts are awesome. The GFS has my interest piqued but we shall see what today's runs bring. Pain or joy. Honestly it looks like the best shot we have had all season, which is pretty sad if you think about it.

:) Thanks! Yep, another dose of pain....but, lets give it the benefit of the doubt and wait until the 0z...two or three out of 4 might still mean lala shenanigans :)

Purely annectotal, but I swat mosquitoes all year round, as soon as it gets up to 60. I've killed a lot lately. And I get ticks on me all year around, except two years back when we had that Feb stretch of very cold. I was in the woods a lot, but no ticks...but just for the two week stretch. And fleas are always bad in the warm months...and this winter, all winter so far..but that may be more a function of a happy squirrel population. I've always felt sustained temps in the low teens, or tens, helped, but only fractionally, come summer. Probably killing off the dimmer bugs that didn't hide deep enough...but that just allows the smarter ones to over populate and return with a vengence :)

And my cats bring in snakes all year around so I keep my eyes out even in winter, because they are often just under the leaf litter, and not necessarily down deep. Luckly the furry snake charmers only bring in the non lethal kind...at least so far :)

Until we get that ever elusive block and get rid of the Alaskan snow making machine, the east will continue to rely on perfect timing and we have seen how well that has worked out for everyone so far :lol:The good news is the rain that continues to be shown for those that desperately need it :wub: At this point I'll take the moisture in whatever form it comes, just as long as it keeps coming :)

And that is the unsung part of this winter, so far. More rain, not less. Since Christmas I've seen a moderate change for the better, and the model runs still keep 'em coming. I'm pretty happy with the way the rains are verifying...always expecting much less because I'm gun shy, but actually getting more. Wish you could say the same, but this last system did, finally, find you!

We'll see some cold..it's winter...and as long as it keeps raining there's a chance for timing, until Easter at least.....as long as it keeps raining. Tony

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nothing good on the 12z Ecmwf. Alaskan vortex stays put, maybe backs up a little, but the end result is the same, a quick hitting return to almost seasonable air for NC/TN and points north, but that quickly sweeps east into the Atlantic, and there's hints of the southern stream coming right back. Basically a zonal fast flow. If we could actualize sunshine, temps would get quite warm.

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old run and new runs of ecmwf, valid around day 10, which look nothing alike. The poorly sampled (and extremely active) Pacific is probably the reason we don't see much run to run consistency.

post-38-0-67286600-1327431612.gif

post-38-0-70422100-1327431603.gif

Something's got to give eh? I guess it's better than having constiant modeling of warmth over the SE on both the GFS and Euro...I'll take the flip flopping as far as keeping hope alive, but once a storm does show up and stay in the mid/long range for a few runs it will be a heartbreaker if it disappears inside 150hrs :arrowhead: Then you can imagine how many people will be saying "winter cancel"

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Something's got to give eh? I guess it's better than having constiant modeling of warmth over the SE on both the GFS and Euro...I'll take the flip flopping as far as keeping hope alive, but once a storm does show up and stay in the mid/long range for a few runs it will be a heartbreaker if it disappears inside 150hrs :arrowhead: Then you can imagine how many people will be saying "winter cancel"

SANY2139.JPG

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I think this is the longest I've gone on the weather forums in not finding a system to track anywhere in the South. Not counting the November cutoffs in Tenn. Its a testament to a really, really bad pattern, with no end in sight. I still think one big event is possible anytime in Feb or March, and if we keep on missing any cold air in February, that will push likely cold period into April this year, since at some point the AO and NAO will likely go severely negative.

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We keep discussing specifics of the 240 hour and 384 hour GFS or whatever- just check out this difference between the GFS and CMC in only 78 hours:

post-357-0-99521100-1327427728.gif

post-357-0-94917200-1327427761.gif

Just a cautionary tale- in this pattern especially do not trust any models exact depiction of the scenario in the medium range. That is all.

I agree 100%

I'm glad I don't make a living as a LR forecaster..... :whistle:

I'm thinking the fast, progressive flow is causing much of this.

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old run and new runs of ecmwf, valid around day 10, which look nothing alike. The poorly sampled (and extremely active) Pacific is probably the reason we don't see much run to run consistency.

post-38-0-67286600-1327431612.gif

post-38-0-70422100-1327431603.gif

I am not trying to grasp at straws when I say this (although it will sure seem like it) but sooner or later the rubberband will snap and one of those shortwaves will make a beeline into the deep south, right when there is some activity barreling in from the GOM. The odds are better than not for this to happen and we end up with a more extreme scenario (as Robert-Foothills has eluded to more than once this season). I personally feel that the modeling within the 5-7 day range will be crappy at best and in this time frame will possibly provide a surprise (it will try to sneak under our noses). Also, let's not forget the winter of 1960! That winter started out slow, with no activity and then from mid Feb to the end of March was a record period for much of the Southern region. I KNOW that it will be a LONG, LONG time until that exact type of winter event(s) will happen. However, it serves as an EXTREME example of how temps and winter storms can happen upon our doorstep in a blink of an eye. I not cliff diving yet! :);)

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I am not trying to grasp at straws when I say this (although it will sure seem like it) but sooner or later the rubberband will snap and one of those shortwaves will make a beeline into the deep south, right when there is some activity barreling in from the GOM. The odds are better than not for this to happen and we end up with a more extreme scenario (as Robert-Foothills has eluded to more than once this season). I personally feel that the modeling within the 5-7 day range will be crappy at best and in this time frame will possibly provide a surprise (it will try to sneak under our noses). Also, let's not forget the winter of 1960! That winter started out slow, with no activity and then from mid Feb to the end of March was a record period for much of the Southern region. I KNOW that it will be a LONG, LONG time until that exact type of winter event(s) will happen. However, it serves as an EXTREME example of how temps and winter storms can happen upon our doorstep in a blink of an eye. I not cliff diving yet! :);)

Just cliff dive its okay everyone else has. There was a thread posting that asked how many times do you feel its going to snow in your area. I said 0 awhile back. I still believe that it will come true. Despite what others on this board say that Winter goes on for awhile longer. Wake up People we are the Southeast not the Northeast, winter is over for us in a matter of weeks, especially the further south you are! :violin::axe::cry:

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That's certainly interesting, because 1985 was the year RDU got down to -10 or so.

Well it wasn't 85, it appears we got a few light snow events...

http://www.wundergro...hlyHistory.html

I just took it to mean he was saying, "As far back as I can see records from (1985)" Just saying that since at least 1985 and not that 85 was a blank.

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