burgertime Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Ah, my bad, I was looking at the 6z. Your probably right about the 0z, didn't even look at it. Like I said you're probably right considering this winter. We might as well just put any fantasy storm as just all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Like I said you're probably right considering this winter. We might as well just put any fantasy storm as just all rain LOL...I do believe someone in the SE will get a good event before this winter is over. It seems that even in awful winters there is at least one really good event, might not hit us but hopefully it will hit someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 LOL...I do believe someone in the SE will get a good event before this winter is over. It seems that even in awful winters there is at least one really good event, might not hit us but hopefully it will hit someone. 12z NAM took a step in the right direction with this weekend's system. It leaves some southern energy behind after the frontal passage.....Still too warm but it looks better than the previous run. Let's see if this is a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Even if this is not snow, a good rain event for central and eastern NC will be welcome...especially for the southeastern coastal region which is currently in a bad drought. It would be great to enter the summer with minimal to no drought conditions in the state! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 12z NAM took a step in the right direction with this weekend's system. It leaves some southern energy behind after the frontal passage.....Still too warm but it looks better than the previous run. Let's see if this is a trend. It would be nice to see the foothills/mountains get a good event out of this. Still time for things to change in your favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Huh, that's two runs in a row that the gfs wants to drop precip onto me with 850's in the negative range. Either the model is broke, so something is afoot in lala land If it is still there in a week, I might get guardedly optimistic. Meanwhile, it looks to try to get cold, which is going to be a relief, before the 90's return in May, which as fast as this "winter" has gone will seem like in about 45 days. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Huh, that's two runs in a row that the gfs wants to drop precip onto me with 850's in the negative range. Either the model is broke, so something is afoot in lala land If it is still there in a week, I might get guardedly optimistic. Meanwhile, it looks to try to get cold, which is going to be a relief, before the 90's return in May, which as fast as this "winter" has gone will seem like in about 45 days. T Tony you have a real way with words, your posts are awesome. The GFS has my interest piqued but we shall see what today's runs bring. Pain or joy. Honestly it looks like the best shot we have had all season, which is pretty sad if you think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The only thing of immediate interest now is the weak closed ridge forecast to develop in northern Canada, and how that may help push one chunk of cold air down in the split flow thats forced south (temporarily). The bad news is no model keeps that there, and the cold is only temporary like all other cold airmasses this season. With the Pacific being so extremely fast this season, aided by the Polar vortex in Alaska, we'd need a block or high amp. flow somewhere in Canada, preferably eastern Canda or even Greenland to buy us enough time to keep cold air in the East and South, while a system can come toward us, but so far we just keep getting the in and out cold, usually lasting only 24 to 48 hours. Late in the run the GFS still wants to create a big western ridge, but so far all these tall ridges have failed on all models, so I'd wait to see if we actually get one to work out within the 7 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Really? All I saw is someone say it would have been a great fantasy storm, so I thought that meant it missed everyone around here. Maybe things will look up. It's only more than 10 days out, right? Oh, but we're not supposed to trust the models past 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Looks very Canadian(ish)............................eh? 12z NAM didn't phase the systems. It had much weaker/further north northern stream. Its seems how this plays out depends upon when, and how well, the ull and the northern stream phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 12z GFS in interesting at 78, cutoff over LA (boot). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Wow that is a lot of rain for the weekend on the GFS today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The only thing of immediate interest now is the weak closed ridge forecast to develop in northern Canada, and how that may help push one chunk of cold air down in the split flow thats forced south (temporarily). The bad news is no model keeps that there, and the cold is only temporary like all other cold airmasses this season. With the Pacific being so extremely fast this season, aided by the Polar vortex in Alaska, we'd need a block or high amp. flow somewhere in Canada, preferably eastern Canda or even Greenland to buy us enough time to keep cold air in the East and South, while a system can come toward us, but so far we just keep getting the in and out cold, usually lasting only 24 to 48 hours. Late in the run the GFS still wants to create a big western ridge, but so far all these tall ridges have failed on all models, so I'd wait to see if we actually get one to work out within the 7 day period. Until we get that ever elusive block and get rid of the Alaskan snow making machine, the east will continue to rely on perfect timing and we have seen how well that has worked out for everyone so far The good news is the rain that continues to be shown for those that desperately need it At this point I'll take the moisture in whatever form it comes, just as long as it keeps coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 12z GFS in interesting at 78, cutoff over LA (boot). We just can't get the cold in here in time. That is the the perfect track for our area if we just had the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Until we get that ever elusive block and get rid of the Alaskan snow making machine, the east will continue to rely on perfect timing and we have seen how well that has worked out for everyone so far The good news is the rain that continues to be shown for those that desperately need it At this point I'll take the moisture in whatever form it comes, just as long as it keeps coming The problem with all of this rain and no cold so far this winter is what Foothills posted a little while ago. The bugs are going to be awful this spring. We will feel like we're in Cambodia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Wow, that's a ton of rain.. If even half of that verifies I'll be ecstatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The track shown by GFS is the perfect track for a major snowstorm in Tn to NC, possibly n. Ga and upper SC if there were cold air. Its absoultely picture perfect the way the 5h system rolls to our south, tilts and goes up the coast. Its showing 3" to 4" of rainfall here, imagine if there was an arctic high over the Lakes or northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The problem with all of this rain and no cold so far this winter is what Foothills posted a little while ago. The bugs are going to be awful this spring. We will feel like we're in Cambodia. Don't take this as a swipe at you...I am just curious especially if we have some type of expert around here. Obviously the rain will create a bigger mosquito population but I am always curious why everyone thinks the cold kills insects. Is this true? Never researched but have always heard that mosquitos are as big as bats in Alaska and MInnesota in the summer time...as well as a variety of other bugs...prolly belongs in banter...back to model worshipping... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Some major warmth over most of the country by 168, the cold air, what little there is, sweeps right out by 24 hours in strong zonal, fast flow. Another cutoff in southern California as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 The track shown by GFS is the perfect track for a major snowstorm in Tn to NC, possibly n. Ga and upper SC if there were cold air. Its absoultely picture perfect the way the 5h system rolls to our south, tilts and goes up the coast. Its showing 3" to 4" of rainfall here, imagine if there was an arctic high over the Lakes or northeast. Robert, Do you see any "what if" mechanisms that could turn this into a wintry threat for certain areas? Trying to find the right words. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The track shown by GFS is the perfect track for a major snowstorm in Tn to NC, possibly n. Ga and upper SC if there were cold air. Its absoultely picture perfect the way the 5h system rolls to our south, tilts and goes up the coast. Its showing 3" to 4" of rainfall here, imagine if there was an arctic high over the Lakes or northeast. Heartbreaker. You've got to love this pattern. Literally 4 hours after the cold goes away something gets brewing in the GOM on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Heartbreaker. You've got to love this pattern. Literally 4 hours after the cold goes away something gets brewing in the GOM on the GFS. My resolve for this winter is surely being tested. All I can say to myself is carry on! I still leaving the cup HALF FULL though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Robert, Do you see any "what if" mechanisms that could turn this into a wintry threat for certain areas? Trying to find the right words. LOL not around here, if the storm goes up the coast maybe the I-95 areas in teh Midatlantic could get brief snow, but I doubt that. Everything is too progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Ughhh after 200 the GFS is looking ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 This winter will end up being wetter than the last El Nino event in Tenn and NC and the mountains it appears. There's another southern stream event by 240, but cold air is nowhere to be found, the flow is zonal and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 So far thru 300 hrs of the 12z gfs is UGLY for those wanting cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 You know it's a bad winter when the NE has to rely on nickle and dime events in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Ughhh after 200 the GFS is looking ugly agreed. Greenland stays cold, western Alaska stays cold and stormy. The pacific and other areas aren't lining up, and when the models do try to build a western ridge, its usually wrong, since the Pacific flow is so strong. It looks bleak for a while yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 This winter will end up being wetter than the last El Nino event in Tenn and NC and the mountains it appears. There's another southern stream event by 240, but cold air is nowhere to be found, the flow is zonal and warm. Interesting tool on the CPC site... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/composites/EC_LNP_index.shtml The trends in the precip over the SE are changing the look of ENSO signature precip in our neck of the woods. While the flow is zonal, Dr No still maintains weak -NAO etc in the outlying days so perhaps just surviving another 10 days will make it at least credible to look at Day 7 for interesting weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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