burgertime Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Euro LR, meh. Couldn't have said it better myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Huge Solar Eruption Sparks Strongest Radiation Storm in 7 Years http://www.space.com...tion-storm.html Doesn't it usually take months for those to have an affect on weather? Blizzard in April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 So 6z was good and so was 0z euro? We are doing okay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 So 6z was good and so was 0z euro? We are doing okay? I would hardly call it ok...we just don't really know. It's probably going to be somewhere in the middle where we end up seasonal with cold transient shots...at the point it will be all about timing and good luck which is pretty hard to find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Beingi n Nashville, I really like what I saw from the Euro after 168.... looks like a decent event from those in n ark, southern missouri, kentucky, and north of 40 in tennessee. maybe 3+ inches total? For BNA and points north and west it looked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 We are still more than 5 days out and as we have seen the models cannot be trusted. Looks like cold is coming back to make February fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 We are still more than 5 days out and as we have seen the models cannot be trusted. Looks like cold is coming back to make February fun. I've said it before and I'll say it again, if we can get it just seasonal around here for Feb I'll be happy to take my chances. At some point you think timing has to get right on just one event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I've said it before and I'll say it again, if we can get it just seasonal around here for Feb I'll be happy to take my chances. At some point you think timing has to get right on just one event. I don't know if i like seasonal for Feb, especially late Feb considering avg highs are near 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I'm late about this since I wasn't around yesterday but I saw the crap that happened yesterday and it pretty much pissed me off. I know this winter might be getting to some people but here's the deal, We are going to keep this thread/forum up to the standards we have set for years and anyone who doesn't meet those standards is going to be delt with. And I want anyone who is being a jackass to be reported or pm me personally. If NC or myself isn't around, we can't deal with it unless someone reports it. So report these people folks and keep things on topic and respectful. Get 'em, Lookout! I missed whatever happened...out of pocket during the weekend... No progression so far from the Euro Ens with any of our favorite indices though I have read in this thread that I should not be paying attention to those anymore...Still always in the 11-15 day time period which is just not good. (Edit note : pre-12Z ens run) Couple of other things...GEFS was to be upgraded but that has now been pushed off to mid February ...which is ashame...we can use all the help we can get.... And also on the warm winter cold spring thing...Matt Rogers of Commodity Weather Group did a study on that and found no correlation (not saying it won't happen, just that it is not a necessity)...fyi... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 We are still more than 5 days out and as we have seen the models cannot be trusted. Looks like cold is coming back to make February fun. I can't understand this statement. Don't trust the models past five days but the cold is coming in February which is 8-9 days away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 We are still more than 5 days out and as we have seen the models cannot be trusted. Looks like cold is coming back to make February fun. I can't understand this statement. Don't trust the models past five days but the cold is coming in February which is 8-9 days away? I was thinking the same thing, and this happens a lot here. Doesn't make sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Get 'em, Lookout! I missed whatever happened...out of pocket during the weekend... No progression so far from the Euro Ens with any of our favorite indices though I have read in this thread that I should not be paying attention to those anymore...Still always in the 11-15 day time period which is just not good. (Edit note : pre-12Z ens run) Couple of other things...GEFS was to be upgraded in mid February but that has not been pushed off...which is ashame...we can use all the help we can get.... And also on the warm winter cold spring thing...Matt Rogers of Commodity Weather Group did a study on that and found no correlation (not saying it won't happen, just that it is not a necessity)...fyi... Probably in the minority here but, I have very little use for a cold spring, If we can't get this thing flipped soon.(by mid feb) I would just as soon wait till next winter for cold. Now don't get me wrong a nice snow followed by a quick warm up to seasonal temps. would be nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I think Mr. Bob's point is: there is no indication ... historically, climatologically or meteorologically .. that this pattern is changing for the better. Probably in the minority here but, I have very little use for a cold spring, If we can't get this thing flipped soon.(by mid feb) I would just as soon wait till next winter for cold. Now don't get me wrong a nice snow followed by a quick warm up to seasonal temps. would be nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I think Mr. Bob's point is: there is no indication ... historically, climatologically or meteorologically .. that this pattern is changing for the better. Well, it can't change for the worse can it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 I would hardly call it ok...we just don't really know. It's probably going to be somewhere in the middle where we end up seasonal with cold transient shots...at the point it will be all about timing and good luck which is pretty hard to find. Yep...VERY hard to find, UNLESS you live north of I-40!! Sorry Burger...I just had ta say it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Here is an excellent post from Don S. I wanted to share with you guys. February 2012 Thoughts: - The La Niña will likely slowly weaken during February. No rapid collapse appears likely. The ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly fell to -1.1°C for the week centered on January 18 from -0.9°C a week earlier. Since the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) fell to negative levels earlier this month, the index has rebounded. The 30-day moving average is registering a steady decline, indicative of a weakening La Niña event down the road. The SOI has been negative the following percentage of days: November: 13.3% December: 3.2% January: 30.4% (through 1/23) Both the CFSv2 and ECMWF forecast a somewhat weaker La Niña event during February. The International Research Institute's (IRI) modeling also indicates a continuation of the La Niña event for the January-March timeframe The core assumption is that the La Niña will continue, but weaken during February. - The PDO is likely to remain solidly negative during February. A negative PDO correlates well with a negative PNA. As this winter has seen the PNA average higher than what might have been expected during the strongly negative PDO that has predominated, the February assumption is a PDO that will remain locked in a fairly narrow range close to neutral (-0.5 to +0.5). - February will likely have the most blocking of any of the winter months (December, January, February). The predominant AO+ regime has continued to show signs of decay. The following is the percentage of days on which the AO has been negative: November: 6.7% December: 3.2% January: 26.1% (through 1/23) Although the GFS ensembles have had a tendency to rush to extremes with the AO in some recent runs, I believe the general idea of more blocking down the road is reasonable. The ECMWF ensembles have been less aggressive with forecast blocking. Given the amount of uncertainty that exists, my assumption is an AO that will generally range somewhere between -1.5 to +0.5. Unfortunately, to get a colder outcome for the East/Great Lakes Region/Midwest, one would need to see a more strongly negative AO (generally -2.0 or below) and/or a more strongly positive PNA (generally +1.0 or above). The composite map for February that I have come up with based on the above assumptions is: Adjustments based on the observed decadal change in temperatures for February would be a somewhat warmer outcome than what is shown for New England and the eastern Great Lakes region and a somewhat cooler (but still mild outcome) for the Southeast. The Pacific Northwest would also be adjusted to somewhat milder but still have cooler than normal temperatures. In sum, I believe February will likely wind up warmer than normal across much of North America, including southern Ontario and southern Quebec. The Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington, British Columbia) could have another cooler than normal month. Alaska/extreme western Canada also look to remain colder than normal, on average. In the warm areas, cold shots will generally be short-duration events. Some opportunities for snowfall might exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Euro LR, meh. Haha! I knew it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Here is an excellent post from Don S. I wanted to share with you guys. DT seems to agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Here is an excellent post from Don S. I wanted to share with you guys. Why in the world would you want to share that? That should clearly be left in the "keep it to yourself" category. That's just mean man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 GFS Ens and Euro Ens are pretty much identical through hr168. From there, the GFS Ens builds ridging in the E Pac and along the west coast, whereas the Euro Ens builds a C Pac ridge with troughing along the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Is that good? Atleast there is some agreement somewhere! They both pretty much agree on no snow. Don and Wes pretty much agree that winter is over. I agree that this winter is the worst I can ever remember. None of that is much good if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 @174 cold air is retreating while a low in the GOM starts to get going . isn't that always how it happens, cold air retreats it warms up and rains,-----GO FIGURE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Hey at this point I think a wishcast would be good, better than nothing. We can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Per the just released Euro weeklies, the 500 mb anomalies are near normal during weeks 3 and 4 in the SE. However, more importantly, week 3 (2/6-12) shows a nice -NAO and a slight -AO as well as a +PNA and a cold Europe and cold N Pacific/Aleutians/E Asia. Maybe we could get a southern track storm then if we're fortunate. Keeping hope alive but accepting whatever happens blah blah blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buncombe Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Best news that I have seen today is that NCEP ranks its 8-14 day forecast confidence as 1 (on the 1-5 confidence scale they use, 5 being most confident), due to heavy disagreement among GFS ensembles and ECMCF ensembles. Bad news is that in NCEP's 500 height anomaly scoring of each model compared to observations over the past 60 days, the Euro is scoring "much higher" than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Per the just released Euro weeklies, the 500 mb anomalies are near normal during weeks 3 and 4 in the SE. However, more importantly, week 3 (2/6-12) shows a nice -NAO and a slight -AO as well as a +PNA and a cold Europe and cold N Pacific/Aleutians/E Asia. Maybe we could get a southern track storm then if we're fortunate. Keeping hope alive but accepting whatever happens blah blah blah. That has be the best weeklies run of the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Best news that I have seen today is that NCEP ranks its 8-14 day forecast confidence as 1 (on the 1-5 confidence scale they use, 5 being most confident), due to heavy disagreement among GFS ensembles and ECMCF ensembles. Bad news is that in NCEP's 500 height anomaly scoring of each model compared to observations over the past 60 days, the Euro is scoring "much higher" than the GFS. http://www.daculaweather.com/model_verification.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 That has be the best weeklies run of the season? It isn't bad at all weeks 3-4 for the SE US. However, in all honesty, last Monday's was better mainly because the timing is delayed and it isn't quite as cold in week 3 vs. last week's week 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Euro LR, meh. Dr. No says it's going to rain imby this weekend Let's keep on topic and drop the CC discussions or move that talk to the appropriate Forum or PR. Thanks. Hi Get 'em, Lookout! I missed whatever happened...out of pocket during the weekend... No progression so far from the Euro Ens with any of our favorite indices though I have read in this thread that I should not be paying attention to those anymore...Still always in the 11-15 day time period which is just not good. (Edit note : pre-12Z ens run) Couple of other things...GEFS was to be upgraded but that has now been pushed off to mid February ...which is ashame...we can use all the help we can get.... And also on the warm winter cold spring thing...Matt Rogers of Commodity Weather Group did a study on that and found no correlation (not saying it won't happen, just that it is not a necessity)...fyi... btw........I want an extended cool/damp spring that lasts into August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Dr. No says it's going to rain imby this weekend Hi btw........I want an extended cool/damp spring that lasts into August Hopefully, we'll get plenty of rain this winter before the scorching drought of a summer sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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