dsaur Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 But the trend is colder. Previously the cold comes in on the last two days. Now it is in early and comes around again. I don't think the particulars are important with goofy, since it has been fickle ...it is the trend I'm liking. Now if it can just show up in 3 or 4 runs this way T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Wish I understood the continued optimism I keep reading -- still no Greenland blocking, PNA is terrible, SSW not materializing. Looks like we get midway through February without a real shot. It's not over, but it's close and the odds are 8 or 9 out of 10 that we non-mountain types go snowless this winter, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Wish I understood the continued optimism I keep reading -- still no Greenland blocking, PNA is terrible, SSW not materializing. Looks like we get midway through February without a real shot. It's not over, but it's close and the odds are 8 or 9 out of 10 that we non-mountain types go snowless this winter, imo. Call me a glass half full guy. It's simply going to be about timing. I'll continue checking the models just to see if we can get cold and moisture in around the same time. While I personally agree the window is closing, I still think we've gotta get one shot at something. Hell the euro might continue with it's depiction last night and give us something to atleast hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Fair enough. Call me a glass half full guy. It's simply going to be about timing. I'll continue checking the models just to see if we can get cold and moisture in around the same time. While I personally agree the window is closing, I still think we've gotta get one shot at something. Hell the euro might continue with it's depiction last night and give us something to atleast hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Call me a glass half full guy. It's simply going to be about timing. I'll continue checking the models just to see if we can get cold and moisture in around the same time. While I personally agree the window is closing, I still think we've gotta get one shot at something. Hell the euro might continue with it's depiction last night and give us something to atleast hope for. Well as a varsity bball coach at a small school of a team that has won 2 games in the last 60 and yet still believes my guys will win each time we take the court......I too can be optimistic, so ditto!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 900 AM EST MON JAN 23 2012 VALID 12Z FRI JAN 27 2012 - 12Z MON JAN 30 2012 LARGE-SCALE MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE GOOD THIS CYCLE...WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA BEGINNING WITH A WEAK BLOCK OVER NUNAVUT THAT FAVORS A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS...WHICH THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS RESOLVE. HOWEVER...IMPORTANT SOLUTION DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE SPLIT PATTERN...PARTICULARLY WITH A CLOSED LOW CROSSING TEXAS STARTING DAY 3/THU. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST SUPPORT FROM THE DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS AND THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH THE PARALLEL GEFS MEAN NOT QUITE AS SLOW AS ITS OPERATIONAL VERSION...WHILE THE 00Z GFS/UKMET ACCELERATE TOWARD THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE REACHING THE EAST COAST BY DAY 4/FRI. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER...CLOSED LOWS HAVE A TENDENCY TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY THAN PROJECTED. THUS...PREFER TO EXCLUDE THE FASTER GFS/UKMET FROM THE PREFERENCES...WHICH LEAVES THE ECMWF AS THE PRIMARY CHOICE. STARTING DAY 5/SAT...THE BLOCK OVER NUNAVUT IS EXPECTED ERODE AND EVENTUALLY BECOME REPLACED BY A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE PLAINS. DETERMINING THE PRECISE DETAILS OF THIS GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE...ALONG WITH GROWING UNCERTAINTIES DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC... CONFIDENCE FALLS DRAMATICALLY FROM DAY 5 ONWARD. THUS...THE PREFERENCE IS TOO MOVE QUICKLY TOWARD THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN THEREAFTER. THE 00Z GEFS MEAN IS CLOSE IN PHASE AND THUS IS AN ACCEPTABLE ALTERNATIVE DESPITE ITS SLIGHTLY LESS PREFERRED SPATIAL RESOLUTION. JAMES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 All eyes will def. be on the Euro this run to see what it does. I'll be here for the PBP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 23, 2012 Author Share Posted January 23, 2012 All eyes will def. be on the Euro this run to see what it does. I'll be here for the PBP. Thanks for all the PBP Jonathan!! Your contributions do not go unnoticed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 All eyes will def. be on the Euro this run to see what it does. I'll be here for the PBP. Can you do it using a famous voice? Like Harry Caray, Howard Cosell, or Dick Vitale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 All eyes will def. be on the Euro this run to see what it does. I'll be here for the PBP. I wouldn't expect much....not referring to your pbp, of course, as it is always the highest quality. But I expect the Euro will continue it's trend of no blocking, transient cool shots and intermittent ridging/troughing out west. The core problem is, I believe -- as has been the case all winter long, as evidenced by this atypically wet La Nina -- is that the flow is super full of energy. That's is a big reason we're not getting huge amplification and stable PNA ridging and stable NAO blocking. I fully expect to see something like "Euro LR, meh" by 2:00 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigdog_10_2002 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Would someone mind telling me the timing of the small frontal event expected to impact the Mountains of NC? I'm heading up there Friday and coming back on Sunday evening (2;00 in the afternoon) Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I wouldn't expect much....not referring to your pbp, of course, as it is always the highest quality. But I expect the Euro will continue it's trend of no blocking, transient cool shots and intermittent ridging/troughing out west. The core problem is, I believe -- as has been the case all winter long, as evidenced by this atypically wet La Nina -- is that the flow is super full of energy. That's is a big reason we're not getting huge amplification and stable PNA ridging and stable NAO blocking. I fully expect to see something like "Euro LR, meh" by 2:00 today. Good points. NAO has been and continues to look like a disaster. 12z GFS Ens is cooler than normal in the mid-extended range with fairly consistent ridging along the west coast and negative anomalies moving into the Aleutian Islands....but that would likely favor weakish storms/precip (clipper types) unless you had a closed ridge in W Canada with flow undercutting the ridge into the western states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Thanks for all the PBP Jonathan!! Your contributions do not go unnoticed! Agreed! Very good pbp, and very appreciatted! I wouldn't expect much....not referring to your pbp, of course, as it is always the highest quality. But I expect the Euro will continue it's trend of no blocking, transient cool shots and intermittent ridging/troughing out west. The core problem is, I believe -- as has been the case all winter long, as evidenced by this atypically wet La Nina -- is that the flow is super full of energy. That's is a big reason we're not getting huge amplification and stable PNA ridging and stable NAO blocking. I fully expect to see something like "Euro LR, meh" by 2:00 today. Thanks guys! So far out to 126 there are a few differences from last nights run but we'll see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 @144 Euro has brought in colder air but lost the development on the coast and that clipper like energy. Dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Yea it does look colder especially in Canada compared to last nights run. It's also a little colder than the 12z GFS...but who knows where it goes in the LR..looks more like a transient shot but I'm not good at reading blocking and -NAO all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 @168 nice cold temps with something brewing in the GOM...let's see where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 @174 cold air is retreating while a low in the GOM starts to get going . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 @174 cold air is retreating while a low in the GOM starts to get going . Not enough cold air around I'm afraid. All the cold in the northern Hemisphere is squarely located in Alaska and Siberia. Canada is actually very lacking in any significant cold pool. There is a small pool of cold south of the Hudson bay but it's small, localized and the rest of Canada looks relatively warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Not enough cold air around I'm afraid. All the cold in the northern Hemisphere is squarely located in Alaska and Siberia. Canada is actually very lacking in any significant cold pool. There is a small pool of cold south of the Hudson bay but it's small, localized and the rest of Canada looks relatively warm. Yea some cool air is sticking around @180 but not nearly enough. The timing just isn't right. Looks like WAA is going to scour out the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Gotta love how our low sheers out just enough to keep some cold air around then regroups just in time for the cold air to leave. Arggg! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Fairly sucktastic run of the euro...2-3" of widespread rain this weekend and then a huge SE ridge sets up that will deflect any cold/ moisture NW of us through day 8-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 @210 KY gets a big snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Fairly sucktastic run of the euro...2-3" of widespread rain this weekend and then a huge SE ridge sets up that will deflect any cold/ moisture NW of us through day 8-9. Yep did not look good for us in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Euro LR, meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I think we will just have to wait until Feb model runs to see some changes, people on other threads mentioned the MJO could be in a favorable position by mid-Feb, which is 3+ weeks away. Until then, probably won't be model watching as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Could this 168 thing be something to watch on euro? Is there a chance cold air stays? Keep watch on, yes. But i wouldn't lose any sleep over it. Keep in mind that the models were likely 15 degrees or so too warm earlier last week for the temps this week. Also, in Greensboro we got just below freezing yesterday morning when no models the middle of last week showed any such cold air. As long as there is cold air in Canada and big highs slide across, don't underestimate CAD. I think we'll need some blocking for a good snow threat though. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Let's keep on topic and drop the CC discussions or move that talk to the appropriate Forum or PR. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 A deluge for central NC on the Euro, 3" of rain, in 24 hours. FRI 06Z 27-JAN 13.9 10.0 1011 98 100 0.19 568 559 FRI 12Z 27-JAN 13.6 9.9 1010 98 100 0.55 567 559 FRI 18Z 27-JAN 14.2 9.6 1010 99 98 0.60 566 558 SAT 00Z 28-JAN 11.2 8.4 1008 98 92 0.60 562 555 SAT 06Z 28-JAN 7.1 6.7 1007 98 95 1.01 557 551 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Huge Solar Eruption Sparks Strongest Radiation Storm in 7 Years http://www.space.com/14319-huge-solar-eruption-sparks-radiation-storm.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Beingi n Nashville, I really like what I saw from the Euro after 168.... looks like a decent event from those in n ark, southern missouri, kentucky, and north of 40 in tennessee. maybe 3+ inches total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.