Met1985 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Thanks Gaston for the map. This snow has been showing i think for a few runs. If we can get into the day 5 and under period might be worth something and also i liked your post earlier about it's still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Thanks Gaston for the map. This snow has been showing i think for a few runs. If we can get into the day 5 and under period might be worth something and also i liked your post earlier about it's still early. Thanks. Like I said, there is still some time left to sneak in at least a couple of good events for the winter but when that happens and who they affect is what we don't know unfortunately. It could begin during the mid period of February or it may take until the late period and we will really need to have things situate themselves correctly to pull off a big one for the Southeast, which I like to take a guess at it and say that such an event could be in store as we wrap things up just before March arrives. Just a gut feeling of course but would be nice if that came to pass. The hardest part of this whole season it seems is waiting for the moment to present itself but has been rather "shy" to show its face. We shall see where we go from here once we end this month. I suspect this winter is making quite a few mets and fellow weather enthusiasts out there rip their hair off, especially those that were constantly changing their winter outlook during late November and early December thanks to all the model hugging they were doing. In my case, I am just taking it all in stride and just accepting what plays out without losing sleep over it. As the saying goes: Patience is a virtue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Ya patience is a big virtue right now but i do think things will cut loose sometime. Looking like mid to late Feb currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Between 150 and 168 hours the ecmwf has a s/w digging into the Southeast, with some development in the Carolinas. This is the cold chasing moisture approach, but its not that warm before the precip develops so there could be snow. Something to watch. That storm goes just offshore and bombs out in eastern Canada, so atleast a decent cold airmass follows, then another digging s/w in a repetitive pattern by day 9 or so, with more cold air. The ensembles of each: GFS keeps more west coast ridging than euro does through the run and has been for a while , so we'll see beginning this weekend if it verifies. Its 5H look would have several systems coming into the east, in a climo type track, with some cold air to work with over the next 2 weeks. Both have atleast a little bit of a pattern change with cold air arriving in the east, but brief warmups between systems. This is the type of pattern where the details matter, and could end up with a threat, just have to see the timing and track of each system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Euro has about .18" of precip for RDU at 162 with temps in mid 30's and 850's plenty cold. Richmond has about 0.30" of precip with 850's plenty cold for snow. I have a feeling 12z Euro run will be different though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Wow I woke up at like 3 A.M. but in my sleepy slumber I didn't even notice that little clipper. The good thing is that at least the Euro is showing something. The bad thing is it's a clipper! Argg.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Wow I woke up at like 3 A.M. but in my sleepy slumber I didn't even notice that little clipper. The good thing is that at least the Euro is showing something. The bad thing is it's a clipper! Argg.. yep I was told to keep an eye on that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Wow I woke up at like 3 A.M. but in my sleepy slumber I didn't even notice that little clipper. The good thing is that at least the Euro is showing something. The bad thing is it's a clipper! Argg.. It's a front diving in from Canada which looked like a clipper of sorts but then it pops a SLP off the VA/NC coast. If it would dig south more it would be much better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 It's a front diving in from Canada which looked like a clipper of sorts but then it pops a SLP off the VA/NC coast. If it would dig south more it would be much better for us. Yea lots of ifs and buts in that one. Certainly your back yard has a better shot with those. Either way 12z runs should be fun to see just how much they change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 the GGEM also has that wave digging pretty far west, but we will have to wait and see how the runs go this week. The cold air will probably be in place for Tn and NC , but we'd need to see that wave dive far enough west to amplify around Sunday. Right now the coastal sections would be the first place that has the highest chance of any effects, but the way some of these s/w have gone much further west means its something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Yea lots of ifs and buts in that one. Certainly your back yard has a better shot with those. Either way 12z runs should be fun to see just how much they change. The WunderMap Euro snowfall does look interesting for Mts and northern NC up into Va......for whatever reason I can't post the image from the site but here is the link...... http://www.wundergro...&stormreports=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 The WunderMap Euro snowfall does look interesting for Mts and northern NC up into Va......for whatever reason I can't post the image from the site but here is the link...... http://www.wundergro...&stormreports=0 Yea saw what Gaston posted earlier. I'm a jealous person though, I want it for MBY! Seen too many I-40 north storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 The 6Z GFS looked pretty promising with keeping a troughy look in the Eastern part of the nation all the while staying pretty active with precip in the long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Yea saw what Gaston posted earlier. I'm a jealous person though, I want it for MBY! Seen too many I-40 north storms! Dang my bad.....he sure did. The excitement of some snow on any map got to me and I overlooked that! Well the NAO is headed down, will this be enough or in time to create some blocking to help the sw dive more west and south??? If 12z still gives some hope maybe just maybe.....at least it's not voodoo land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Dang my bad.....he sure did. The excitement of some snow on any map got to me and I overlooked that! Well the NAO is headed down, will this be enough or in time to create some blocking to help the sw dive more west and south??? If 12z still gives some hope maybe just maybe.....at least it's not voodoo land. It looks to average out to neutral. (but) It seems I read somewhere where this may be a good setup to be in for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I'm late about this since I wasn't around yesterday but I saw the crap that happened yesterday and it pretty much pissed me off. I know this winter might be getting to some people but here's the deal, We are going to keep this thread/forum up to the standards we have set for years and anyone who doesn't meet those standards is going to be delt with. And I want anyone who is being a jackass to be reported or pm me personally. If NC or myself isn't around, we can't deal with it unless someone reports it. So report these people folks and keep things on topic and respectful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 It looks to average out to neutral. (but) It seems I read somewhere where this may be a good setup to be in for the SE. I have read that too.....think we need to be careful what we wish for sometimes, if the NAO were to tank we flip from mild and wet to cold and dry which would still possibly equal no snow. As active as this pattern has been this year and as cold as those just across the US border have been I like our chances if the NAO was neutral or just slightly neg...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I have read that too.....think we need to be careful what we wish for sometimes, if the NAO were to tank we flip from mild and wet to cold and dry which would still possibly equal no snow. As active as this pattern has been this year and as cold as those just across the US border have been I like our chances if the NAO was neutral or just slightly neg...... Agree 100%. The only good thing about cold and dry is that when something does come along, it tends to stick or freeze really good. Still it can agonizing waiting on precip. I think neutral to slightly negative is the way to go. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Agree 100%. The only good thing about cold and dry is that when something does come along, it tends to stick or freeze really good. Still it can agonizing waiting on precip. I think neutral to slightly negative is the way to go. TW What we really need is the PNA to go positive. Don S wasn't so optimistic in his latest post over in the general weather forum. Can't give up hope though. All we need is one well timed event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 earlier I thought this weeks cutoff in Texas would slide east to the Carolinas and then attach and phase with one of the incoming northern stream s/w, but this run of GFS isn't doing that. But it still does seem to be building a decent PNA ridge so we'll see how things evolve. This looks like another good soaker, esp. from Texas to the northern Gulf states toward the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 earlier I thought this weeks cutoff in Texas would slide east to the Carolinas and then attach and phase with one of the incoming northern stream s/w, but this run of GFS isn't doing that. But it still does seem to be building a decent PNA ridge so we'll see how things evolve. This looks like another good soaker, esp. from Texas to the northern Gulf states toward the Apps. Yea @117 looks like a good bit of colder air is driving down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Well GFS is giving us that trend you love. Cold weather with no moisture in sight! Out to 141 temps are freezing in NC, Western TN and Northern GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 It seems it hardly ever works out in favor of snow if it is an event where we have to have the timing just right. It always ends up too warm, or the precip goes away or goes somewhere else. It seems the only time we can get snow around here is when we see a massive system that bombs just off the coast or we don't see anything coming at all, as in Jan 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 It seems it hardly ever works out in favor of snow if it is an event where we have to have the timing just right. It always ends up too warm, or the precip goes away or goes somewhere else. It seems the only time we can get snow around here is when we see a massive system that bombs just off the coast or we don't see anything coming at all, as in Jan 2000. Timing always has to be just right in the south..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 It seems it hardly ever works out in favor of snow if it is an event where we have to have the timing just right. It always ends up too warm, or the precip goes away or goes somewhere else. It seems the only time we can get snow around here is when we see a massive system that bombs just off the coast or we don't see anything coming at all, as in Jan 2000. The timing always has to be right with snow in the SE outside of the mountains...nothing new! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I've got blinding rain falling and goofy wants to give me some cold air within 7 days..shoot, hard to get any better than that when it's 58 right now. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 FWIW at the surface the GFS does look pretty close to the Euro run for 2m temps and 850's...which might be a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Of course I say that and in the LR after 200 it looks nothing like the Euro at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Of course I say that and in the LR after 200 it looks nothing like the Euro at the surface. Looks like early on it tries to build the pac ridge but just never really gets where we need it......at the 500mb it looks fairly zonal followed by more troughiness out west followed by an attempt to pump the pac ridge followed by..........hope I'm looking at it wrong. We need some blocking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 12z GFS LR is "meh". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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