Isopycnic Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Excuse me for answering someone else's question...but YES! great discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I am amazed that 10 days ago, today was to be a blow torch according to the models, approaching 70 in the CLT area. It is overcast and 37.2!! One of our local weatherman John Cessarich on thursday night had high of 67 forecast for today. Only in the low 40's all day the high happened at midnight which was around 50. Models are having a really hard time to say the least this season, even in the short term from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 So, it's trash because it doesn't show what you like? lol. Well I guess the one thing there is to back up the hate is that the ENS Mean looks a lot better or at least seasonal compared to the 18z in the LR....then again I say trash it if there is no snow for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 One of our local weatherman John Cessarich on thursday night had high of 67 forecast for today. Only in the low 40's all day the high happened at midnight which was around 50. Models are having a really hard time to say the least this season, even in the short term from time to time. I've always been a big fan of John here in the Asheville-GSP market especially in terms of winter and severe weather. But many times it just seems like he hugs numerical guidance too much which results in big time busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 A lot of great discussion on the boards today. Robert as always great PBP. I have learned a lot since coming on here. Guys the thing that we need to remember and i think POWERSTROKE summed it up great is that WINTER IS NOT OVER! Yes the farther south you go the probability goes down as we go deeper into winter but there still is a chance. I no this winter has been very frustrating but it would be amazing if were mild from Nov all the way to the end of winter. I have never seen it happen and i don't think this will be the year. Also one thing to remember is that we no that the Long range on the Euro and GFS has had a very hard time being sustained and one run does not mean anything in the 10-15 day hell not in the 5+ days. The models will change tonight and they will change tomorrow, bank on it this is what they have been doing all winter. Just trying to be optimistic guys and not wish casting because there still is a lot of time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Well I guess the one thing there is to back up the hate is that the ENS Mean looks a lot better or at least seasonal compared to the 18z in the LR....then again I say trash it if there is no snow for MBY Yes it maintains ridging along the west coast, which intensifies from time to time. Not a bad look at all, atleast seasonable. Its' been showing this for a while now, so we'll have to wait and see how it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 We are kidding ourselves, granted the models haven't been consistent, but they have waffled from terrible to mediocre...maybe one or two GFS runs were "good" but those looks we're in the 11-15 day range. We (outside of the mountains) are going to have to get really lucky to see snow, maybe even for the mountains too. We have had a terrible pattern all winter long and the models have yet to show anything positive inside 10 days. It sucks big time, it's going to be one of those winters where we look back and and cringe thinking about the PV in AK and everyone will be sick of hearing about SSW's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 So, it's trash because it doesn't show what you like? lol. No. Trash b/c it doesn't get full and current data; its a mish mash. 0z and 12z are the runs with current data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 We need to start seeing some agreement show up in the next week or so on some favorable blocking and ridging, or we're going to run out of time. All this good run/bad run stuff is starting to suck. I'm still hopeful for now if for no other reason that I have never been through a winter where I didn't see one flake of snow, one ice pellet, or one minor glazing. In fact, I can't ever remember a winter without at least one Winter Weather Advisory. But so far, nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 One of our local weatherman John Cessarich on thursday night had high of 67 forecast for today. Only in the low 40's all day the high happened at midnight which was around 50. Models are having a really hard time to say the least this season, even in the short term from time to time. He's pathetic imo, id much rather watch Andy Wood, at least he will adjust during the day if cad keeps the temps down. we were 8-10 degrees cooler than forecast 4 out of the last 6 days here. at least it's not ice cold and bone dry, we're getting much needed water this month for sure! You cant beat starting the new year off with above average rainfall imo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Yes it maintains ridging along the west coast, which intensifies from time to time. Not a bad look at all, atleast seasonable. Its' been showing this for a while now, so we'll have to wait and see how it verifies. The key to that statement is wait and see and not for everybody to go nuts on every model run for the next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 A lot of great discussion on the boards today. Robert as always great PBP. I have learned a lot since coming on here. Guys the thing that we need to remember and i think POWERSTROKE summed it up great is that WINTER IS NOT OVER! Yes the farther south you go the probability goes down as we go deeper into winter but there still is a chance. I no this winter has been very frustrating but it would be amazing if were mild from Nov all the way to the end of winter. I have never seen it happen and i don't think this will be the year. Also one thing to remember is that we no that the Long range on the Euro and GFS has had a very hard time being sustained and one run does not mean anything in the 10-15 day hell not in the 5+ days. The models will change tonight and they will change tomorrow, bank on it this is what they have been doing all winter. Just trying to be optimistic guys and not wish casting because there still is a lot of time left. No I don't think it's over. Look at Feb 26-27, 2004 and March 1, 2009. Both 8-10 inches in Winston-Salem. Today is Jan 22nd!!! We never got wintry weather in December until last few years. Most of time it's Jan-Mar. So I don't know why a lot think it's over. It is like a game it's not how you start it's how you finish. We may look back after winter and say it was boring but it did end strong. One storm and we all have our seasonal average. Winter may be over but I personally don't think it is but what do I know I'm just a contractor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 No I don't think it's over. Look at Feb 26-27, 2004 and March 1, 2009. Both 8-10 inches in Winston-Salem. Today is Jan 22nd!!! We never got wintry weather in December until last few years. Most of time it's Jan-Mar. So I don't know why a lot think it's over. It is like a game it's not how you start it's how you finish. We may look back after winter and say it was boring but it did end strong. One storm and we all have our seasonal average. Winter may be over but I personally don't think it is but what do I know I'm just a contractor Yep a long way to go, according to GSP records for the upstate since 1892 January is the top month for snow and Feb is 2nd best, March and December are a distant 3rd and 4th Jan 219" Feb 163" Dec 111" March 97" These do not count 2011 So over the last 120 years getting snow in December and March are a rarity in these parts BUT can happen as we all know but Jan and Feb are a lot more likely. Im assuming these are from GSP airport so its not all accurate for my area but fairly close but i noticed many years when there wasnt even a trace of snow in Dec or Jan there typically was measurable snow in Feb or Mar. Only 5 years since 1952 (didnt feel like going all the way back to 1892..lol) when no snow in January was there no snow in Feb or March. And 13 years went snowless in Jan and did get snow in the next 2 months. So im not worried yet, the odds are in our favor folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 No I don't think it's over. Look at Feb 26-27, 2004 and March 1, 2009. Both 8-10 inches in Winston-Salem. Today is Jan 22nd!!! We never got wintry weather in December until last few years. Most of time it's Jan-Mar. So I don't know why a lot think it's over. It is like a game it's not how you start it's how you finish. We may look back after winter and say it was boring but it did end strong. One storm and we all have our seasonal average. Winter may be over but I personally don't think it is but what do I know I'm just a contractor How about a March 1993? That was a bad winter until March due positive AO/NAO flipped at the end of Feb. I think we will need this kind of luck to see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Well, we have tornadoes tonight and 60s for highs here this week. I know we can change quickly around here. It seems it can go from one extreme to the next very quickly. Sometimes we need the storms and warm weather to bring the change and the snow. So, I know February could be different. But it just doesn't seem likely right now. I wish it would be easy to just throw in the towel now so there is not any false hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 How about a March 1993? That was a bad winter until March due positive AO/NAO flipped at the end of Feb. I think we will need this kind of luck to see snow. I didn't want to bring up march 1993!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Well, we have tornadoes tonight and 60s for highs here this week. I know we can change quickly around here. It seems it can go from one extreme to the next very quickly. Sometimes we need the storms and warm weather to bring the change and the snow. So, I know February could be different. But it just doesn't seem likely right now. I wish it would be easy to just throw in the towel now so there is not any false hope. I sure hope no one gets any tornado's tonight. Too much of that for one year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 No I don't think it's over. Look at Feb 26-27, 2004 and March 1, 2009. Both 8-10 inches in Winston-Salem. Today is Jan 22nd!!! We never got wintry weather in December until last few years. Most of time it's Jan-Mar. So I don't know why a lot think it's over. It is like a game it's not how you start it's how you finish. We may look back after winter and say it was boring but it did end strong. One storm and we all have our seasonal average. Winter may be over but I personally don't think it is but what do I know I'm just a contractor Lol man i agree it is far from over. We have had some of our bigger snows in March. And you are right all it takes is one big storm to see average snow fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Meanwhile, Goofy says I'll get rain, and the rain comes. As soon as the 3 or 4 day says snow, it should be in the book I've had cad drizzle all day, and some showers are knocking at the door, pretty much like the gfs as intimated for a few days. I'm looking foward to a bone chilling March and a freezing Easter. No way the pattern doesn't change...they always change. Now if it wants to flip from a cold winter, to a cold summer, heck, I'm on board with that. But the pattern will change. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 He's pathetic imo, id much rather watch Andy Wood, at least he will adjust during the day if cad keeps the temps down. we were 8-10 degrees cooler than forecast 4 out of the last 6 days here. at least it's not ice cold and bone dry, we're getting much needed water this month for sure! You cant beat starting the new year off with above average rainfall imo! Yeah - JC (John) is copy-n-paster...I can get his forecast by reading the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I am amazed that 10 days ago, today was to be a blow torch according to the models, approaching 70 in the CLT area. It is overcast and 37.2!! lol i noticed that too. i remember back when all the doom and gloom was running rampant about the coming torch that it was about this time it was to start. today we had a cad, falling temps (currently 36.5 and holding steady, of course haha. too much to ask for it to drop below freezing) and drizzle. i wanted to see just what happened and it appears that neither the extreme heat nor cold that was being generated on the models materialized. which shouldnt be that surprising since extreme conditions are extreme because they are rare. whats ended up imby for the most part has been pretty "normal" all things considered. temps in the 20s/30s and highs in the 40s/50s with cold rains. as long as the pattern seems locked in this position i see no reason to think much will change (for a while at least). of course we can, and do, get winter wx in the se with normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 We need to start seeing some agreement show up in the next week or so on some favorable blocking and ridging, or we're going to run out of time. All this good run/bad run stuff is starting to suck. I'm still hopeful for now if for no other reason that I have never been through a winter where I didn't see one flake of snow, one ice pellet, or one minor glazing. In fact, I can't ever remember a winter without at least one Winter Weather Advisory. But so far, nothing. The only thing that has been consistent these past few months is that Alaskan snow pumping machine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 12z closed off a 5h low at 108 over AL/GA border than opened back up, could have been interesting for TN and the mountains had it stayed closed and separated from northern stream. The GFS hasnt had 2 consecutive runs with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I think I speak for mostly everyone when I say that honestly it's anything goes at this point. Modeling can only handle but so much of the pattern and for it to further complicate them based on its behavior and evolution makes matters worse, such as the flip-flopping that we continuously see in the medium to long range. Nature will do what it will do and no amount of wishing or hoping can change that. If the pattern turns for the better once we begin closing this month and get through the first bit of February; great. This means that all that we would have to worry about at that point are whether or not we get a storm system that times/tracks itself correctly to mingle with the cold and potentially produce nicely for some folks across the Southeast. If not and we still end up dealing with the stubbornness of this by the mid-late period of next month well that is just something we can't do anything about and would have to settle for it. I still like the idea of us getting into at least one major storm, likely in a scenario in which the pattern shifts into a more favorable setup for such (if we get can get it that is) and allow a widespread "major" snowstorm or wintry mix of some sort, though I hope that doesn't include a good bit of ice should it occur. I also would like to think that this pattern will break at some point before we get too far throughout the first quarter of the year but when that happens (if it does) remains in question. The point is, until we get rid of that pesky AK vortex and get the overall look of the Pacific and Atlantic to appear more promising (even something somewhat decent would be nice if nothing else), I would remain cautiously optimistic for the most part. Also, if you think about it (and this is going by calendrical standards of a winter season), it has been officially one month since winter started so we still technically have plenty of time. After all, history will tell you that even with a horrible Dec./Jan., it only takes a storm or two during Feb./Mar. to make an "epic" winter for the Southeast. We can only continue to have more patience from here on out and hopefully this pattern pulls a 180 in the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Well thought at 150 on the GFS we might have something to work with, however scratch that, looks like the train is coming, just like 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I thought that was a good run, it had a huge low up in east Canada after day 5 for a couple of days and then day 10+ it had a nice western ridge and east trough. About all you can hope for I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 You know it's a depressing winter when there is only two people that watched the gfs run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 You know it's a depressing winter when there is only two people that watched the gfs run. Lol i think all eyes are on the severe weather event taking place right now. Big storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 At least it gets moderately cold. Rather see that by the 1st. But it has been pretty consistently getting cold at 14 days.... for the last 14 days T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Just for what it's worth, nice swath of snow around 156 for the NC mountain folks and a part of the foothills region on the Euro, though it's only up to a couple of inches and then around half inch accumulations just outside of the mountains. Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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