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Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion III


Rankin5150

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euro has a nice neg. tilt trough in GA Friday night, but isn't as cold in the Apps so no snow for the mtns, compared with GFS . Its a nice rain maker from Texas, east. Meanwhile it shows a pretty strong ridge developing out west, so the cold is pushing down, but hasn't phased in with the southeast storm as of 132.

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Nice site! You've done a lot of work to it. anyway the ensembles looked good to me. Keeps the trough in the central to eastern states ridging in western Canada and US the whole run. Unless I was looking at an old run. It looked very climo, which is ok , certainly not very warm looking.

I hope thats right. Today is only the second time all winter that the airport in Greensboro will not break the 40 degree mark all winter. 2 days of temps not getting past the 30's for Max/Min. Not sure what the record is for least amount of days in a winter season (D/J/F) with sub 40 readings in GSO, but I'm figuring its atleast +5.

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still close enough for aphase, very close, so something for the Apps and on northeastward to watch for. If the cutoff moves a little slower, and the cold comes in a few hours faster it would be a big snowstorm from the Apps to northeast coast. Nice cold dump coming in afterwards, atleast seasonable for late Jan.

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The key to what happens is going to be that cutoff and if it phases or not, and how perfectly. Its very close to doing so as the surface low comes into central NC and its strengthening on its trip up the east coast to eastern Canada. Meanwhile a nice ridge is building offshore the west, similar to GFS a few days ago (whereas ecmwf was diging a trough there), but now the next strong s/w is dropping down the western ridge in the Rockies. Could be a fun run.

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at 180, the ecmwf has the eastern Canada storm not quite as wrapped up or as strong , yet it has a very strong western ridge, with a s/w dropping into the Rockies. That is going to be the next system to watch. If the eastern Canada vortex wraps up strongly, that could offer a southern track for the next system, with winter precip north of the track. Looks like euro is gong to develop it in the plains, which is more north than GFS. Yet overall this run went more toward GFS in the overall flow, imo.

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at 204, its pretty cold (seasonable) from NC west to the Plains with an inverted trough from the Lakes to the Gulf. Precip along this region. There's definite potential here, and the model is having a hard time with the eastern Canada vortex I think. The good news is the western ridge now, which has been off and on feature on this model, so obviously the model is having some issues. Think GFS has been more consistent on the western ridge/eastern trough idea. What happens to how much phasing the northeast system becomes will be a big, big factor on what happens with the next wave. Things like that have been pretty good winter storms for NC, northward in the past, however I wouldn't bank on it yet. So many things are going on, but the trend is atleast more winter like and there's no big southeast ridge, unlike past runs.

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Robert,

With a lot of people wanting to "throw in the towel" so soon, I hope they are reading the PBP from you today. This is some helluva good learning. I have a feeling that today will be the day that we look back on and say "this is where things started turning for the better". That is if your a fan of winter weather. LOL! Thanks always for your contributions!

Jason

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still wish we could get atleast a little agreement past the day 7 on the models, no luck yet though. I guess we'll take systems as they come, first up is how the east coast storm pulls in some cold next weekend, then we'll watch the west for the next s/w as it probably develops. I'm going to venture a guess this far out (dangerous) that the weekend storm does fully phase, bombs out, and alters the flow so that the next s/w takes a track down to southern Colorado a couple days later, which would put us early in the next week. And that will become the upper south's first true threat.

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its possible Winter is a complete no show here, but very doubtful as of yet. The pattern wasn't supposed to change until early Feb . so thats still the time frame we're watching. In this year, March may end up colder than Dec and Jan were.

Robert, I love your optimism and hope the pattern change does finally happen sometime next month. I am just looking at climatology and in the next couple of weeks the daily temp averages are going to start going up just like the days are getting longer now. March may end up colder then december or january but, that may not help much when high temps on average go up a full 10 degrees from the start of the month till the end of the month. It is just going to get harder and harder outside of the mountains from mid february on to thread that needle perfectly.

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Like many have said as we get into february here in the south, as each day passes it gets harder and harder to get it to snow. Pretty ironic though we are in a mild la-nina pattern a typical dry pattern and it has been so wet. Over 4 inches of rain so far for the month with possibly another 1 to 2 inches the rest of the month. Ground is like walking on a wet sponge that just cannot absorb anymore moisture. Anything showing on the models this year has been 300 hours or later and then it never makes it to the short or even medium range. It's looking like it is just going to be one of those bad winter seasons, that unfortunatley we have no choice but to accept when you live in the south. The last two years were great but, definitely not the norm for here. Hoping in this terrible pattern one or two kinks come along with perfect timing and at least gives some of us some winter weather. With our luck the pattern will finally change at the worst possible time in mid march and then we will have a cold and damp spring.. Hope I am wrong though.... :bag:

I am sorry not trying to be contradicting or condescending but I live probably 45 minutes NE of u in northern GVL county.

I am 41 years old and never remember a snow less winter here. Yes climatologically speaking mid to late January is the best time to get winter weather north of 85 but I remember numerous Feb and March storms that produced significant snows.

I believe in my heart of hearts that we will see some winter weather north of 85 at some point before we get to Mid April.

Whether it be less than an inch or upwards of a foot.... Who knows !!!!!!!

I think from reading posts in the SE region we have posters with great knowledge of reading patterns and models....( such as AO, NAO, PNA, and MJO) but what allot of these posters are missing is that everything doesnt have to fall into perfect place such as these indices stated above. You just need one of those indices to be right with some perfect timing.

I bet that if some of you guys went back and looked at storms of the past from November through mid April you would see all kinds of wild setups and scenarios where it snowed despite the majority of those indices not being in the perfect position.

I respect all posters but,

My Favorite is Robert because he doesn't base he forecasts solely on computer models or indices.

He bases it on a mix of computer models, indices, and just good old weather experiences over time.

The indices and models are going to be wrong more times than not. Instead of going by what the GFS says today or the Euro shows tomorrow look out the window and remember some of the old farmer weather sayings also.

Those are tried and true over 150 years and counting in our region.

Will they be spot on accurate.... Of course not there is no perfect in our world period....

But I trust 150 years of experience over what 20 with the computer models....

Just my thoughts.....

TC

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I am sorry not trying to be contradicting or condescending but I live probably 45 minutes NE of u in northern GVL county.

I am 41 years old and never remember a snow less winter here. Yes climatologically speaking mid to late January is the best time to get winter weather north of 85 but I remember numerous Feb and March storms that produced significant snows.

I believe in my heart of hearts that we will see some winter weather north of 85 at some point before we get to Mid April.

Whether it be less than an inch or upwards of a foot.... Who knows !!!!!!!

I think from reading posts in the SE region we have posters with great knowledge of reading patterns and models....( such as AO, NAO, PNA, and MJO) but what allot of these posters are missing is that everything doesnt have to fall into perfect place such as these indices stated above. You just need one of those indices to be right with some perfect timing.

I bet that if some of you guys went back and looked at storms of the past from November through mid April you would see all kinds of wild setups and scenarios where it snowed despite the majority of those indices not being in the perfect position.

I respect all posters but,

My Favorite is Robert because he doesn't base he forecasts solely on computer models or indices.

He bases it on a mix of computer models, indices, and just good old weather experiences over time.

The indices and models are going to be wrong more times than not. Instead of going by what the GFS says today or the Euro shows tomorrow look out the window and remember some of the old farmer weather sayings also.

Those are tried and true over 150 years and counting in our region.

Will they be spot on accurate.... Of course not there is no perfect in our world period....

But I trust 150 years of experience over what 20 with the computer models....

Just my thoughts.....

TC

I totally agree that Robert is the best hands down and the main reason why I keep coming here. I do alot of traveling in and out of the mountains so I have to have an idea on what may be coming winter weather wise. I love the posts as well and by no means am I knocking him or anyone else for that matter. All I am saying is this year has been terrible in regards to winter weather and the models keep hinting a change may be coming but they almost always seem to be in the long range that so far has not matieralized in the medium or short range. And climatologically speaking time is of the essense starting in a few weeks. Yes, we can have a rogue storm pop up from time to time in late feb. or march as I am 48 and have experienced the same winters you have but, the chances are not good.

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still wish we could get atleast a little agreement past the day 7 on the models, no luck yet though. I guess we'll take systems as they come, first up is how the east coast storm pulls in some cold next weekend, then we'll watch the west for the next s/w as it probably develops. I'm going to venture a guess this far out (dangerous) that the weekend storm does fully phase, bombs out, and alters the flow so that the next s/w takes a track down to southern Colorado a couple days later, which would put us early in the next week. And that will become the upper south's first true threat.

Agreed. Ensemble members diverge greatly in the 10-15day mark. The GFS's ensemble members did have a slight consensus of normal to below temperatures yesterday, but that's not the case today :( I hope we get some sustained cold though and not transient cold shots.

gens_t2m_anom_usa_d15.png

cmc_t2m_anom_usa_d15.png

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still wish we could get atleast a little agreement past the day 7 on the models, no luck yet though. I guess we'll take systems as they come, first up is how the east coast storm pulls in some cold next weekend, then we'll watch the west for the next s/w as it probably develops. I'm going to venture a guess this far out (dangerous) that the weekend storm does fully phase, bombs out, and alters the flow so that the next s/w takes a track down to southern Colorado a couple days later, which would put us early in the next week. And that will become the upper south's first true threat.

WOW!! Don't damage your reputation!! LOL!! You are taking a chance with the way this year has went

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I am sorry not trying to be contradicting or condescending but I live probably 45 minutes NE of u in northern GVL county.

I am 41 years old and never remember a snow less winter here. Yes climatologically speaking mid to late January is the best time to get winter weather north of 85 but I remember numerous Feb and March storms that produced significant snows.

I believe in my heart of hearts that we will see some winter weather north of 85 at some point before we get to Mid April.

Whether it be less than an inch or upwards of a foot.... Who knows !!!!!!!

I think from reading posts in the SE region we have posters with great knowledge of reading patterns and models....( such as AO, NAO, PNA, and MJO) but what allot of these posters are missing is that everything doesnt have to fall into perfect place such as these indices stated above. You just need one of those indices to be right with some perfect timing.

I bet that if some of you guys went back and looked at storms of the past from November through mid April you would see all kinds of wild setups and scenarios where it snowed despite the majority of those indices not being in the perfect position.

I respect all posters but,

My Favorite is Robert because he doesn't base he forecasts solely on computer models or indices.

He bases it on a mix of computer models, indices, and just good old weather experiences over time.

The indices and models are going to be wrong more times than not. Instead of going by what the GFS says today or the Euro shows tomorrow look out the window and remember some of the old farmer weather sayings also.

Those are tried and true over 150 years and counting in our region.

Will they be spot on accurate.... Of course not there is no perfect in our world period....

But I trust 150 years of experience over what 20 with the computer models....

Just my thoughts.....

TC

We tried to organize an "occupy Shelby", and have him installed as King, but he is too modest and wouldn't hear of it, lol. What I like is he will look into the fluid dynamics, and speak about what his sees as possibilities. Not afraid to offer possibilities as well as probabilities, when a lot offer mostly probabilities.... which is cool, and climo safe, and, well, probable...not as much fun :) The day I see Robert on the ledge, is when I know we only have minutes to live, lol., and the Vogon Destructor Fleet is in orbit around the planet. T

Tony

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What's done??........winter certainly isn't done. Well, maybe for you guys along the SC coast. For us, it's still very much alive..

Hey I'm slightly hopeful for some late season antics, maybe late Feb-early march but those are few and far between down here. I never stopped golfing or mowing the lawn this year.

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Like many have said as we get into february here in the south, as each day passes it gets harder and harder to get it to snow.

Nashville actually averages more snow in January than February only because of the number of days in the month. If the months were of equal length then Feb would be ever so slightly the snowier month. Don't give up hope on February.....yet. :snowwindow:

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Nashville actually averages more snow in January than February only because of the number of days in the month. If the months were of equal length then Feb would be ever so slightly the snowier month. Don't give up hope on February.....yet. :snowwindow:

Coach B,

Not giving up hope yet on the rest of winter.... Just real frustrated nothing has matieralized yet and I know it won't be too long until were in the mid to upper 90's again... :cry:

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