burgertime Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 We weren't talking about snow! I said sustained cold, it was in the 60s the day before the February storm!!! You obviously don't know how to stay on topic, and you are 100% incorrect about the daily nao values. But carry on. Feb. 1973 (days leading up to the storm): 2/1/1973 -3.2 2/2/1973 -19 2/3/1973 -1.7 2/4/1973 6.6 Guys, it's called a positive NAO. I don't care what meteorologist on this board or anywhere else tries to talk about this block or that, if you don't have a negative NAO block you are not going to get sustained southeastern US cold, and any winter weather threats will require perfect timing. I've observed time and time again when the realist on these boards get shunted for saying such as this, but it's reality so fire away. I've bolded, underlined and made bigger the part of the conversation that really started all this. I'll admit though even perfect timing is needed in a -NAO regime...however you can get a good snowstorm as has been pointed out without the -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 OK folks, enough of the pie fight. Back to the current situation, the new 240 hr Euro does looks like we MAY be getting into a -NAO, plus all of Canada is below normal heights. In the SE on this run, we only really have a couple of days of milder weather and then another front comes through, so really out of the 10 days only two are not at least chilly. For the cold lovers at least this certainly is not a blowtorch pattern.... Let's just hope it can continue that trend of a -NAO. Interesting to see where we can go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCMET Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I can agree to that. I just didn't want anyone reading this thread to think that that was the ONLY way to get sustained cold in the SE because that is not true. Back on topic, that 240 hour map looks good. Maybe the last week of January could get interesting. Is it impossible, no. Does it require highly unusual circumstances - most definitely. If we want to quibble over technicalities in my sentences that's fine, but I refuse to concede that the odds are HIGHLY AGAINST sustained cold in the southeastern US with a positive NAO. The synoptics of meteorology support this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'll say this right now...anyone who disagrees with what you bolded doesn't know the first thing about forecasting winter weather in NC. Period. I'm not going to argue that...you said that another poster was going off topic by bringing up snow. You brought it up first with "winter weather threats" that's all. You were then offered proof that we have received major winter weather WITHOUT a -NAO. Granted it was "perfect timing" but again even with a -NAO you still need perfect timing for a widespread event in the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCMET Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Strongly agree. Do we have a 2nd in the peanut gallery? Im not a mod. But can we please move this discussion to the banter thread. Or maybe someone can start a thread to talk about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Don't be sad about the 12Z GFS... trust me it's easily the coldest run in a long time when extrapolated... there's more to the atmosphere than the bottom 90% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCMET Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Wonderful! I'm not a mod, but let's try to stay on topic please. Thanks. I am attaching the 240 hour EURO to start a new conversation piece. Begin discussion! The peanut gallery has a 2nd!!! Second! Get this mess out of the analysis thread, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 So in order to have a conversation about the NAO, you must also talk about the EPO, WPO, PNA, MJO, AO, SOI, ENSO, etc.? Heck, the NAO doesn't even mean that much honestly - it's all about the positional placement of the anomalies be that a "west or east" based NAO. No, that's not what I said. But in order to have a conversation on our weather. You need to discuss more than the nao. I would much rather have a plus pna than nao. I would rather have both, don't get me wrong. But just looking at the nao index and seeing it positive you can't dismiss snow completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hey guys, I'm new here. What is more important for cold air in the south, the AO or NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow86 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hey guys, I'm new here. What is more important for cold air in the south, the AO or NAO? The NAO. A -AO with a +NAO doesn't do us any favors: http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NC_Snowfall.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hey guys, I'm new here. What is more important for cold air in the south, the AO or NAO? Ao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Guys, it's called a positive NAO. I don't care what meteorologist on this board or anywhere else tries to talk about this block or that, if you don't have a negative NAO block you are not going to get sustained southeastern US cold, and any winter weather threats will require perfect timing. I've observed time and time again when the realist on these boards get shunted for saying such as this, but it's reality so fire away. The more puzzling question is why exactly people who are "realists" use tones and narrative that seem to demand everyone else agree with them? Many people call that something different than "realist". And so what if we are suffering from positive NAO? Can you guarantee that it won't change? No...so why then, would I be so willing to stamp "FAIL" on a winter that is all of 3 weeks old? It's probably more the "realist" tone that gets shunted, not so much the ideas. If you have been hanging around reading any of the posts in this thread or the last one, this is exactly what I and others have been saying. Edit: And as Cheeznado below says, indicies aren't everything. That's why this is called Meteorology and not modelology or indiciology. This was really hit on again yesterday. Models can only react to data. That data never stops changing. "Modelology" would be a hard way to live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I am stumped as to why ya'll don't seem real pleased that those of your brethern and sisteren who have been rain deprived are at the doorstep of salvation. Is snowlust so all consuming that the imminent relief from the "dry death" of us less fortunate ones is ignored? Cold will come. It's winter! Rain, on the other hand, is fleeting and precious, at least to those of us so deprived. Shed your snow angst, and rejoice that some of your less fortunate are about to be saved....at least in the very near term This is one model depiction you can be sure of..as I am even now amongst the rain drops, lol. And with luck it will make it to Michelle!! Rejoice...and perhaps a group hug is in order T Once again, my Zombie mojo is working. That drooling horror seems powerful!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Devils Advocate here.... We are perilously close to being in a moderate La Nina, what happens if you adjust these numbers based on a weak/moderate La Nina? Even the CPC says we are in a weak-moderate Nina, staying on the fence about what to actually call it. Say take La Nina's that were between -.5 and -1.5? Or some other range to show that we are borderline? 1) I base my weak La Nina classification on a three month average of region 3.4 anomalies being no colder than -1.0 C. To this point, that average hasn't even fallen below -0.9 C. Being that only 4 of 47 (about 1 in 12) La Nina's since 1871 got colder after the DJF trimonth and with there still being some room to play, the odds of this reaching moderate (-1.1 C or colder for a trimonth) are quite low imo. 2) However, just in case, I did take a look at major KATL S/IP for moderate La Nina's and found three humdingers: 1/9-10/2011, 2/24-5/1894 and 12/3-6/1886 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Larry, you have a big database somewhere or is this all on paper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Please keep it on topic guys, and gals, mid-long range stuff, if you want to debate the NAO's impact on SE cold, either start a new thread for it, or better yet, banter. I just went through and deleted about 25 posts, most of which were already shaded. I understand the lack of winter wx is getting to some, many, but please keep it civil, and on-topic. Heads up, if you carpet bomb a thread with unrelated posts that derail the actual disco, I will limit your posting privileges for a couple days. If you find something objectionable or otherwise crap, please report it. We have had minimal reports from the SE up until about a week ago, now it seems we're good for a couple every day. I have been busy with stuff around the homestead, mainly Irene repairs the past week or so. The leash is pretty long atm, but if the petty back and forth keeps up, trouble makers and repeat offenders will be dealt with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12Z GFS... WOW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12Z GFS... WOW!!! Since I don't really know what I am looking for at this level, I am going to need more than a wow, lol. Anyone care to expand the discussion on this one as it relates to the med/long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Since I don't really know what I am looking for at this level, I am going to need more than a wow, lol. Anyone care to expand the discussion on this one as it relates to the med/long range? It showing a splitting in the stratosphere, but I don't think it's downwelling that much so the PV doesn't split or weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Maybe if there is thunder to be heard in tomorrow's storms and maybe if the folk tales about thunder in winter are true...then maybe we might see a couple of flakes in ten days...maybe! That happened to us! It thunderded 10 days prior to our jan 2nd snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It showing a splitting in the stratosphere, but I don't think it's downwelling that much so the PV doesn't split or weaken. The PV takes up all levels of the atmosphere... so technically the PV does split. That much horizontal skewing cannot be "good" for the health of the PV at lower levels though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It showing a splitting in the stratosphere, but I don't think it's downwelling that much so the PV doesn't split or weaken. Wouldn't that help displace it though if nothing else? Just saw Okies response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The PV takes up all levels of the atmosphere... so technically the PV does split. That much horizontal skewing cannot be "good" for the health of the PV at lower levels though... Do you think the GFS is on to something there though? It's been pretty big with these types of changes coming but hasn't it stayed in that 300+ time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Since I don't really know what I am looking for at this level, I am going to need more than a wow, lol. Anyone care to expand the discussion on this one as it relates to the med/long range? Looks like it lost that tall ridge out west and up alaska, It had for so long... Which is terrible for us, we need to get ready for a cool and rainy spring, pattern will change sometime which my guess is in Feb- March when our normals are rebounding quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Do you think the GFS is on to something there though? It's been pretty big with these types of changes coming but hasn't it stayed in that 300+ time frame? This is the first run to pick up on it so we'll know tomorrow whether it was a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looks like it lost that tall ridge out west and up alaska, It had for so long... Which is terrible for us, we need to get ready for a cool and rainy spring, pattern will change sometime which my guess is in Feb- March when our normals are rebounding quickly Stratospheric conditions don't necessarily correspond exactly to the 500mb pattern... but a split and severely displaced, very weak PV can mean nothing but good for most of the USA in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The PV takes up all levels of the atmosphere... so technically the PV does split. That much horizontal skewing cannot be "good" for the health of the PV at lower levels though... And your thinking is that it will cause further disruption in the lower layers? Couldn't it also just go back to pain in the butt it is? Seems like a Tim Tebow thrown hail mary in the 4th quarter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 There's a lot of disappointment in the latest model runs; but I'm thinking we could still see a surprise. As long as the players are around we definitly have a chance of getting some winter precip: 12z GFS 204 hour 12 hour precip: 12z GFS 192 hour dew points: Now the next frames do show the cold (or dry) air leaving "fast" but we all know how this can change. Edit: Not sure why the maps didn't post but go here: http://www.twisterdata.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Stratospheric conditions don't necessarily correspond exactly to the 500mb pattern... but a split and severely displaced, very weak PV can mean nothing but good for most of the USA in February. Oh ok guess I was thinking about the blocking. Thanks for the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Larry, you have a big database somewhere or is this all on paper? No big database. My data comes from many different sources, some that are still on paper. A fair amount of this was compiled over the years from library visits, in which I read microfilms of old newspapers and then took notes and/or copied the microfilms. You will not find a lot of this info in any database as far as I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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