jburns Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Oremus (that's Latin and it sums it all up). Latin? I thought that was a fictional character who told Irish folk stories, Uncle O'Remus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 If you liked the look of the GFS in the LR don't bother with the Euro. Yep, they are in different worlds days 7 through 10. The euro has a western trough/flat se ridge developing (after a quick cold shot here), the GFS has mostly eastern troughing. By day 10, the cold air on euro is back to its usual locations this Fall and Winter: Siberia and Alaska and very far removed from the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 We were in a La Nina last year and did quite well (at least from Dec - mid Feb). I'm convinced that the strength of the given Latin Children patterns play the role in their influence...not necessarily there presence. I'm aware and I agree.......but typical La Nina winters are milder. Of course, a -NAO can change everything.......personally I'd feel better if it wasn't La Nina. I was just throwing out some thoughts about the CPC discussion with regards to it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Good disco from usedtobe on Feb - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32064-a-few-pattern-thoughts/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 We were in a La Nina last year and did quite well (at least from Dec - mid Feb). I'm convinced that the strength of the given Latin Children patterns play the role in their influence...not necessarily there presence. To be fair 2010 was highly anomalous in quite a few ways. Like catching lightning in a bottle pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 How often does it actually snow in Florida? In the past ten years there has been little or no snow in Florida. i guess its a matter of perspective. it seems like florida has seen some sleet and snow the last few years. i think i remember pics on the board from our florida posters. did they get 3"? of course not, but any flake in florida would count as snow in florida in my book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I know that La Nina's usually mean warmer than normal conditions in the southeast, but is it normally this warm ? It's be so warm this winter that we could have the coldest February ever and still end up well above normal for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 It appears last years cold Nina is being evened out this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I know that La Nina's usually mean warmer than normal conditions in the southeast, but is it normally this warm ? It's be so warm this winter that we could have the coldest February ever and still end up well above normal for the winter. For Dec/Jan, there have been four other LN's producing as warm or warmer than the current winter for KATL just since 1940: 1998-9(~same in a mod. Nina), 1971-2 (~ one degree warmer in another weak Nina), 1956-7 (~one warmer in another weak Nina), and 1949-50 (~1.5 warmer in a strong Nina). Three of these had warm Feb.s including th ewarmest since 1940 (1957) while one was cold (1972). Only one non-Nina Dec.-Jan. was as warm, 1948-9, a neutral ENSO winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 i guess its a matter of perspective. it seems like florida has seen some sleet and snow the last few years. i think i remember pics on the board from our florida posters. did they get 3"? of course not, but any flake in florida would count as snow in florida in my book I can't give you official recorded observations, but there has only been 1 winter in the last 10 (3 years ago) without some sleet or flakes in my yard; usually either last week of December or mid-February; never once in January. Point being, it ain't necessarily over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 12z euro ensembles anyone? Anything that says the GFS isn't on crack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 For Dec/Jan, there have been four other LN's producing as warm or warmer than the current winter for KATL just since 1940: 1998-9(~same in a mod. Nina), 1971-2 (~ one degree warmer in another weak Nina), 1956-7 (~one warmer in another weak Nina), and 1949-50 (~1.5 warmer in a strong Nina). Three of these had warm Feb.s including th ewarmest since 1940 (1957) while one was cold (1972). Only one non-Nina Dec.-Jan. was as warm, 1948-9, a neutral ENSO winter. Thanks for the pick-me-up, Larry. Geez! We're running out of straws to grasp for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Good disco from usedtobe on Feb - http://www.americanw...ttern-thoughts/ Thanks for the link griteater! It was a good read. I always enjoy Wes' thoughts on upcoming patterns. If we can get that pna pattern to pop w/ a -nao we just might can get lucky but the model forecast of the mjo getting stuck in phase 6 is kind of a bummer. I would love for it to move into 7 and 8. Oh well, we'll have to wait and see where we end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Thanks for the link griteater! It was a good read. I always enjoy Wes' thoughts on upcoming patterns. If we can get that pna pattern to pop w/ a -nao we just might can get lucky but the model forecast of the mjo getting stuck in phase 6 is kind of a bummer. I would love for it to move into 7 and 8. Oh well, we'll have to wait and see where we end up. Got a long way to go, and some funky gyration, to get into 7 or 8: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Got a long way to go, and some funky gyration, to get into 7 or 8: From looking at that I would agree but I have seen the MJO do some strange things. To be honest I haven't even seen the model forecast of the MJO, I was going by what Wes said in his post. Below is his quote... "The ukmet, euro and GEFS forecasts of the mjo pretty much stall it in phase 6." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 having a supressed flow is also a good way to produce in the Southeast, if there's no +PNA. As long as there is Baffin Blocking or Greenland , its possible to have a supressed flow, but I'm not forecasting that. Just saying that sometimes blocking patterns give anomalous results. Certainly one big period that comes to mind is when there was simultaneous double blocking in 1960 and a -PNA. Lots of pieces to the puzzle. But obviously, thats rare and we'd prefer a PNA+ to deliver the cold for certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Could it be the recon flight that is making the Euro and GFS worlds apart? The fact that the GFS has extra data ingest could be the big key here...though not sure if they share that data with the ECMWF...I didn't think they did. Anyways didn't pay too much attention to what the recon flight was looking into but I'm sure downstream it has big effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 hr 120 starting too look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 18z just doesn't look right to me. It looks closer to the 12z Euro for most of it's run, though I haven't seen the 500 charts...then it just kind of keeps the Euro cold shot. We'll see what the LR does but it just looks funky to me. Like the typical 18z wonk run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 18z just doesn't look right to me. It looks closer to the 12z Euro for most of it's run, though I haven't seen the 500 charts...then it just kind of keeps the Euro cold shot. We'll see what the LR does but it just looks funky to me. Like the typical 18z wonk run. I agree burger. So far it looks similar to 12z euro but not really surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 lol @312 it looks like it so badly wants to give us a super blizzard fantasy but alas cold chasing the rain! Doesn't look bad out past 300 but again something about this run to my eyes just has a throw it away look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 lol @312 it looks like it so badly wants to give us a super blizzard fantasy but alas cold chasing the rain! Doesn't look bad out past 300 but again something about this run to my eyes just has a throw it away look. The 18z really wraps up that storm around 324 or so over the lakes and that's what brings us our cold front once it moves up into eastern Canada. Overall anothe "meh" run out of the gfs. I would love to see just some 3 runs of the same thing out of the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 having a supressed flow is also a good way to produce in the Southeast, if there's no +PNA. As long as there is Baffin Blocking or Greenland , its possible to have a supressed flow, but I'm not forecasting that. Just saying that sometimes blocking patterns give anomalous results. Certainly one big period that comes to mind is when there was simultaneous double blocking in 1960 and a -PNA. Lots of pieces to the puzzle. But obviously, thats rare and we'd prefer a PNA+ to deliver the cold for certain. Good points as usual Robert. January and February 1979 come to mind as well as there was a -pna -nao much of the time and a suppressed flow was present. Many tend to think you have to have a +pna to get a suppresed flow, even if the nao is strongly negative. Some of the great forecasters over on the main board pretty much feel that way from what i've read in their posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Good points as usual Robert. January and February 1979 come to mind as well as there was a -pna -nao much of the time and a suppressed flow was present. Many tend to think you have to have a +pna to get a suppresed flow, even if the nao is strongly negative. Some of the great forecasters over on the main board pretty much feel that way from what i've read in their posts. thanks. I actually prefer just a supressed flow or split flow, versus a big PNA + pattern, because a western ridge a lot of times means dry here with miller b redevelopment, which is certainly much better for the east coast from central VA , northward. Last year's -NAO was good and helped with supressed flow even though many times we didn'thave a strong +PNA. The one Christmas storm was from a Baja system and we got very lucky that 2 systems phased..extremely rare for us, but more likely for the Apps and Midatlantic/NE. For the Deep South and Southeast, Carolinas...what we really need is a 50/50 vortex somewhere near Maine or Eastern Canada and a Baja system opening up and heading due east. That 50/50 vortex usually comes about with Baffin Is. blocking or southern Greenland blocking....so I'm not all that excited until I see one of those features show up. It was beginning to show up on the models with ridging in that area but seems like models have took it away for now. Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 To be fair 2010 was highly anomalous in quite a few ways. Like catching lightning in a bottle pretty much. Which was the implication in my thoughts that the strength is the main player in it's influence. It was a weak/mild La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The MJO forecast isn't very accurate much more than a week or so in advance. And yes, we want to see it to the left of the diagonal line in 8 - 1- 2- 3. If you scroll down to the bottom of this page, you'll see the temp anomalies for each sector http://www.daculaweather.com/mjo_phase.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 european ensembles. The one good thing is the slight ridging northeast of Hudson bay to Greenland but it's pretty weak. The bad news is the vortex in Alaska that has found a home. Until both long range models show it moving or relaxing its hard to get that excited here, I'd prefer to see high heights there, or anywhere in western Canada. I haven't seen the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 thanks. I actually prefer just a supressed flow or split flow, versus a big PNA + pattern, because a western ridge a lot of times means dry here with miller b redevelopment, which is certainly much better for the east coast from central VA , northward. Last year's -NAO was good and helped with supressed flow even though many times we didn'thave a strong +PNA. The one Christmas storm was from a Baja system and we got very lucky that 2 systems phased..extremely rare for us, but more likely for the Apps and Midatlantic/NE. For the Deep South and Southeast, Carolinas...what we really need is a 50/50 vortex somewhere near Maine or Eastern Canada and a Baja system opening up and heading due east. That 50/50 vortex usually comes about with Baffin Is. blocking or southern Greenland blocking....so I'm not all that excited until I see one of those features show up. It was beginning to show up on the models with ridging in that area but seems like models have took it away for now. Bummer. Great post Robert and I agree. Over the years I've noticed most of our good storms come from a split flow or supressed flow. Lots of times when we have a big +PNA it means cold and dry here. It always seems in a big +PNA the energy diving down the back side of the ridge can't make the turn due to the ridge is always set up too far to the east therefor it turns into a fish storm. Of course that isn't always the case but I see it a lot in that pattern. Imo we would need one of those big cutoffs that you've talked about this year and seem to be the thing during the 2011/2012 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Which was the implication in my thoughts that the strength is the main player in it's influence. It was a weak/mild La Nina. I guess last year and this year are not "typical" LN years......last year strong -NAO, cold with several winter storms and this year (as many have pointed out) wetter and milder than most. LN also has effect on MJO correct? Goes to show us just how many factors have to come together for winter weather in the SE........guess that's why we love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Finally getting back to posting more often on here after being swamped with work over the past few days. I decided to browse around on the main winter thread on Accuwx today and came across this from a poster who apparently has access to the Euro weeklies and states: "The Euro Weeklies look AWESOME! Going for a Stormier and Colder Approach for the 2nd Week of February. The +PNA is locked in at that time and the -NAO/-AO is locked in. There's also a Neutral to slightly negative EPO at that time as well. Very Good times ahead." http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=23461&st=6380 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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