Poimen Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I'm surprised that people are not talking about the 12z run. really it is a dream run (of potental). We can't focus on the details but if this pattern is correct, watch out SE by the end of the month. Yeah, it develops some blocking in the Davis Straight/Baffin Island by day 6-7 that suppresses the storm track just in time for a series of weak overruning events thereafter. Of course, verbatim it's too warm, but if the block materializes I could see that changing for the nothern portions of the SE. Of course, the overruning event might not materialize either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 This run of the GFS has taken a very big step in the right direction due to some of the comments above. Also encouraging of late, is that the model has shown more runs like this than what we were seeing a week ago -- huge -PNA, +NAO, GOA vortex anchored in place, and a huge SE ridge. There is a ton of potential embedded in this run, and if the pattern turns out as depicted, we'll finally have something to track. Would be nice to see the Euro jump onboard. I guess we'll keep watching for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I am very suprised the AO is showing up so positive on the GFS teleconnections page, I thought it was negative for sure on the model run itself, goes to show what I know...The NAO looked a little iffy on the run, it setup and than lost it so that makes sense seeing it positive but the AO didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I am very suprised the AO is showing up so positive on the GFS teleconnections page, I thought it was negative for sure on the model run itself, goes to show what I know...The NAO looked a little iffy on the run, it setup and than lost it so that makes sense seeing it positive but the AO didn't. Better hope Don and Wes don't see that, or you won't want to visit the main page and read the love fest of warmth that will ensue! JK I like those guys. They have done a remarkable, albeit frustrating, job this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I am very suprised the AO is showing up so positive on the GFS teleconnections page, I thought it was negative for sure on the model run itself, goes to show what I know...The NAO looked a little iffy on the run, it setup and than lost it so that makes sense seeing it positive but the AO didn't. I haven't seen the PNA charts but if they are off the charts positive that could be what the good look is. Don S IIRC was saying the positive PNA is actually the most important of the three NAO, AO and PNA for snow in the east when correlating with past snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Better hope Don and Wes don't see that, or you won't want to visit the main page and read the love fest of warmth that will ensue! JK I like those guys. They have done a remarkable, albeit frustrating, job this winter. Well the ensembles agree on the +PNA happening around day 8 and holding through about day 14 and then the pattern starts to relax. Looks like we have some blocking around day 8 also, but than loses it. The +PNA is nice, very nice but not having blocking really sucks, I don't think we will get snow without that this year (IMO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 http://www.daculaweather.com/ao.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Folks, Per the 12Z GFS suite, things are still looking good for a new beginning in early Feb. for the SE US. There should be a cooling step during the last days of Jan. prior to the really nice cooling. The hope is not only staying alive. It is also getting closer to being realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 JB just made a Twitter post: "I bet all you GFS followers are grinning after the ensemble run. US has 7 day break. BTW europe going into Feb Freeze also" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 So without being able to look at this moment, is the Alaskan Vortex there on the ensembles like it was talked about for the OP? If that's there, I don't know if I can buy into the pattern change, other than something transient as we have had a few times already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Well the ensembles agree on the +PNA happening around day 8 and holding through about day 14 and then the pattern starts to relax. Looks like we have some blocking around day 8 also, but than loses it. The +PNA is nice, very nice but not having blocking really sucks, I don't think we will get snow without that this year (IMO). Blocking tends to be broken a little too quickly sometimes. So, hopefully it will hold on for a while. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Well, Goofy is offering up some snow in Ga. but not the 3 feet in Valdosta kind we are so used to. When a blockbuster, impossible storm comes up in the long range, I'll be much happier But things do look better the last few days. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Well, Goofy is offering up some snow in Ga. but not the 3 feet in Valdosta kind we are so used to. When a blockbuster, impossible storm comes up in the long range, I'll be much happier But things do look better the last few days. T But at least you got a lot of rain today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 So without being able to look at this moment, is the Alaskan Vortex there on the ensembles like it was talked about for the OP? If that's there, I don't know if I can buy into the pattern change, other than something transient as we have had a few times already It weakens and moves NW which allows the west ridge to setup at perfect spot. At the end of the the run it starts move SE which relaxes the ridge. The good news is it shows this happening day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I know I'm an amatuer, I post seldom cause I don't have much to add....but love to read some great insight on this forum,,,,so if what I'm saying here is way off please correct me...... Hate to be a downer.....but there has been little talk of La Nina and it still is having a huge negative effect on Winter weather in the SE. And by the looks of thing it is not gonna change anytime real soon, not good news at all. I copied the CPC ENSO discussion summary but also a link to the 38 page discussion.....most is over my head but bottom line, typical La Nina, warm weather to persist. Just my opin but we can get +PNA, or a neutral to slight -NAO but with La Nina gonna take a serious thread the needle perfect brief scenario to see a significant winter event.... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Summary • La Niña conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific.* • Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 0.5°C below average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. • Atmospheric circulation anomalies are consistent with La Niña. • La Niña is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2012.* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Well, Goofy is offering up some snow in Ga. but not the 3 feet in Valdosta kind we are so used to. When a blockbuster, impossible storm comes up in the long range, I'll be much happier But things do look better the last few days. T 3 feet in Valdosta? Where can I book a room and when? In all seriousness, though, snow this far south is rare, but it does occur, and once in a great while can be "significant": How often does it actually snow in Florida? In the past ten years there has been little or no snow in Florida. On January 24, 2003 there were record low temperatures and light snow flurries along the eastern coastline. The snow reached as far south as Fort Pierce. Other reports of snow during the time period between 2000-2009 were sparse and insignificant, from a light dusting in November,2006 to a few snowflakes spotted in February, 2008. The most significant snow fall in the 20th century was on March 6, 1954. Four inches of snow accumulated at Milton Experimental Station, Santa Rosa County within a 24 hour period. This is the highest official total for Florida according to weather records. On March 12, 1993 there was snowfall along the Florida Panhandle producing up to 4 inches of snow. This was known in the news as the 1993 Superstorm. There were several years in the 1950's that had some recorded snowfall. On February 2, 1951 snowfall accumulated to about 2 inches in Saint Augustine and Crescent City and on March 28, 1955, snowfall accumulated to about an inch in Marianna along the Florida Panhandle. February 13, 1958 produced a romantic snowfall the night before Valentine's Day. An overnight rainfall changed to snow in Jacksonville with reports of up to 1.5 inches. Tallahassee reported a record 2.8 inches. While not the most snow on record, there was a long period of snowfall back in 1899. On February 12 and 13, 1899, snow fell for about 8 hours. Dubbed the Great Blizzard of 1899 temperatures were about 10° F with snow accumulating to 2 inches near Jacksonville and about 4 inches in Lake Butler. In some locations, the snow remains on the ground for several days. We can only hope for .... http://en.wikipedia....ents_in_Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Well the Doc is living up to it's good name near the end of it's run. Has a transient cold shot then looks to warm back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 If you liked the look of the GFS in the LR don't bother with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 If you liked the look of the GFS in the LR don't bother with the Euro. Which one looks more realistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 watching every run will keep you frustrated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 What day do they begin to disagree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Which one looks more realistic? Probably neither one, they have not so far this winter. So the answer probably is somewhere in between! Come on April so we can stop watching ever model run to see if we have a possibilty of a flake or pellet in the next 15 days!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I know I'm an amatuer, I post seldom cause I don't have much to add....but love to read some great insight on this forum,,,,so if what I'm saying here is way off please correct me...... Hate to be a downer.....but there has been little talk of La Nina and it still is having a huge negative effect on Winter weather in the SE. And by the looks of thing it is not gonna change anytime real soon, not good news at all. I copied the CPC ENSO discussion summary but also a link to the 38 page discussion.....most is over my head but bottom line, typical La Nina, warm weather to persist. Just my opin but we can get +PNA, or a neutral to slight -NAO but with La Nina gonna take a serious thread the needle perfect brief scenario to see a significant winter event.... http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf Summary • La Niña conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific.* • Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 0.5°C below average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. • Atmospheric circulation anomalies are consistent with La Niña. • La Niña is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2012.* You have to remember that a La Nina will enhance the posibilites of +NAO and -PNA; which ussually means a warm SE. But if you can get a -NAO and/or +PNA the SE can become cold. Last year we had the record -NAO that kept us cold (even as we were in a La Nina). Now if you saying you do not trust the depiction of a -NAO (in LR) because of the continuation of the La Nina, that would be a valid correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 What day do they begin to disagree? I would say around 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 3 feet in Valdosta? Where can I book a room and when? In all seriousness, though, snow this far south is rare, but it does occur, and once in a great while can be "significant": How often does it actually snow in Florida? In the past ten years there has been little or no snow in Florida. On January 24, 2003 there were record low temperatures and light snow flurries along the eastern coastline. The snow reached as far south as Fort Pierce. Other reports of snow during the time period between 2000-2009 were sparse and insignificant, from a light dusting in November,2006 to a few snowflakes spotted in February, 2008. The most significant snow fall in the 20th century was on March 6, 1954. Four inches of snow accumulated at Milton Experimental Station, Santa Rosa County within a 24 hour period. This is the highest official total for Florida according to weather records. On March 12, 1993 there was snowfall along the Florida Panhandle producing up to 4 inches of snow. This was known in the news as the 1993 Superstorm. There were several years in the 1950's that had some recorded snowfall. On February 2, 1951 snowfall accumulated to about 2 inches in Saint Augustine and Crescent City and on March 28, 1955, snowfall accumulated to about an inch in Marianna along the Florida Panhandle. February 13, 1958 produced a romantic snowfall the night before Valentine's Day. An overnight rainfall changed to snow in Jacksonville with reports of up to 1.5 inches. Tallahassee reported a record 2.8 inches. While not the most snow on record, there was a long period of snowfall back in 1899. On February 12 and 13, 1899, snow fell for about 8 hours. Dubbed the Great Blizzard of 1899 temperatures were about 10° F with snow accumulating to 2 inches near Jacksonville and about 4 inches in Lake Butler. In some locations, the snow remains on the ground for several days. We can only hope for .... http://en.wikipedia....ents_in_Florida 2010 there was snow on the ground in all 50 states... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 2010 there was snow on the ground in all 50 states... Yup ... Like I said, we can only hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 But at least you got a lot of rain today! Whaaaa? See, you have those radars on your site, and you may have begun to believe them I'm at .9 for the last few days..not awful, assuredly, but not in the Cheez catagory, by any stretch, lol. I believe I am justified in expecting more .4 for the day just doesn't have me dancing, considering I had to stare down some more rotations to get it As far as the weak little baby girl is concerned, she won't be around for ever, in fact, the effects could start ending today at 7:23. That is what I like about weather, it never is constant, except for Ga. in the summer, lol. T Edit: Deadhead...thanks for the snow data on Fla. I've always wondered about that. I remember years when there would be dustings pretty far down, or at least snow bursts. I used to do an art show in Pensacola in Nov. and it nearly always sleeted during that 3 days. Somehow I always thought that parts of Fla got pretty good snow from time to time, lord knows it will get cold down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 You have to remember that a La Nina will enhance the posibilites of +NAO and -PNA; which ussually means a warm SE. But if you can get a -NAO and/or +PNA the SE can become cold. Last year we had the record -NAO that kept us cold (even as we were in a La Nina). Now if you saying you do not trust the depiction of a -NAO (in LR) because of the continuation of the La Nina, that would be a valid correlation. Of course that is what I was saying.....Lol. Thanks for the response and good points, I know we CAN get cold weather, even winter events in La Nina years, has happened plenty times before....just not as good a chance and when I read over that discussion by CPC, their thoughts seemed to be above average temps through March. Not that system can't sneak through of course...... But I am skeptical of any LR model output at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I know I'm an amatuer, I post seldom cause I don't have much to add....but love to read some great insight on this forum,,,,so if what I'm saying here is way off please correct me...... Hate to be a downer.....but there has been little talk of La Nina and it still is having a huge negative effect on Winter weather in the SE. And by the looks of thing it is not gonna change anytime real soon, not good news at all. I copied the CPC ENSO discussion summary but also a link to the 38 page discussion.....most is over my head but bottom line, typical La Nina, warm weather to persist. Just my opin but we can get +PNA, or a neutral to slight -NAO but with La Nina gonna take a serious thread the needle perfect brief scenario to see a significant winter event.... http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf Summary • La Niña conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific.* • Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 0.5°C below average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. • Atmospheric circulation anomalies are consistent with La Niña. • La Niña is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2012.* We were in a La Nina last year and did quite well (at least from Dec - mid Feb). I'm convinced that the strength of the given Latin Children patterns play the role in their influence...not necessarily there presence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 2010 there was snow on the ground in all 50 states... The irony of the 2010 La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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