griteater Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 00z GFS Ens holds some ridging along the west coast from hr204 through the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 00z GFS Ens holds some ridging along the west coast from hr204 through the end of the run That's good right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 That's good right! Yes considering we need a ridge on the west or no go. See here: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zGFSEnsembles500mbHGHTNA_Loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 This new run on the 06Z things look interesting from about hour 300 on and thats about it. Lots of rain coming but looks better than the 0Z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 We are now under a Tornado Watch COLD-FRONTAL TSTM BAND OVER PORTIONS MIDDLE TN...NWRN AL AND NRN MS IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED..WITH POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS. TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO REMAINS...BOTH WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY AND WITH ANY SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING AHEAD OF LINE. MEANWHILE...INCREASINGLY SHALLOW LAYER OF STATIC STABILITY OVER SERN TN AND NRN GA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ERODING AMIDST CONTINUING PRE COLD-FRONTAL WAA...WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT WARM FRONT NEWD ACROSS THIS AREA WITH TIME. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS IN HOW FAST THIS PROCESS OCCURS. WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN WEAKLY CAPPED FOR SFC-BASED PARCELS...WITH MLCAPE IN 250-800 J/KG RANGE THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN HOURS...INCREASING SLOWLY THEREAFTER. INCREASE IN INITIALLY SHALLOW/PREFRONTAL CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SWRN MS ALSO MAY BE EARLY MANIFESTATION OF WSW-ENE BANDS OF TSTMS PROGGED BY A FEW CONVECTION-ALLOWING/HIGH-RES MODELS FOR LATER THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS ERN MS AND CENTRAL/NRN AL...AHEAD OF COLD-FRONTAL ACTIVITY. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE...CONSIDERING PRESENCE OF VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH DEPARTURE OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR TSTMS IN PRESENCE OF WEAK CINH. MEANWHILE...MIDLEVEL DCVA/ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER/EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD MORE OF WARM SECTOR AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APCHS. DESPITE AFOREMENTIONED VEERING...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR STILL SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BOTH BOWS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH AREA OF EFFECTIVE SRH 300-500 J/KG SHIFTING EWD ACROSS AL AND INTO PORTIONS WRN GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Ok peeps....I FINALLY found what I was looking for in terms of a "winter reversal". The year was 1960, NOT 1958! The winter of 1960 started out like This winter (2012). The temps then were slightly to well above normal from Dec 1959 to around MID FEBRUARY of 1960. After mid Feb, it was GAME on! If you read the link I have provided, you will see that the blocking in AK was the culprit to begin with and then when the AK blocking broke down and pushed westward, then the winter weather and cold temps started in earnest. Here is the link: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2010/Review_Feb-Mar_1960.pdf I am not saying this will happen by any stretch, but this drives home the point that we still have TIME and things can change on a DIME! This was an AMAZING time for the Southeast that started out CRAPPY, in terms of cold/wintry weather. Hope is not lost yet! FOR YOU PROS...how does this match in terms of analog years? TIA. Oh and sorry for the ot, but I felt this belonged here. I will also start a new thread for the 1960 winter. Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Ok peeps....I FINALLY found what I was looking for in terms of a "winter reversal". The year was 1960, NOT 1958! The winter of 1960 started out like This winter (2012). The temps then were slightly to well above normal from Dec 1959 to around MID FEBRUARY of 1960. After mid Feb, it was GAME on! If you read the link I have provided, you will see that the blocking in AK was the culprit to begin with and then when the AK blocking broke down and pushed westward, then the winter weather and cold temps started in earnest. Here is the link: http://www.erh.noaa....eb-Mar_1960.pdf I am not saying this will happen by any stretch, but this drives home the point that we still have TIME and things can change on a DIME! This was an AMAZING time for the Southeast that started out CRAPPY, in terms of cold/wintry weather. Hope is not lost yet! FOR YOU PROS...how does this match in terms of analog years? TIA. Oh and sorry for the ot, but I felt this belonged here. I will also start a new thread for the 1960 winter. Jason Very good find Jason! I'm reading it right now! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Ok peeps....I FINALLY found what I was looking for in terms of a "winter reversal". The year was 1960, NOT 1958! The winter of 1960 started out like This winter (2012). The temps then were slightly to well above normal from Dec 1959 to around MID FEBRUARY of 1960. After mid Feb, it was GAME on! If you read the link I have provided, you will see that the blocking in AK was the culprit to begin with and then when the AK blocking broke down and pushed westward, then the winter weather and cold temps started in earnest. Here is the link: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2010/Review_Feb-Mar_1960.pdf I am not saying this will happen by any stretch, but this drives home the point that we still have TIME and things can change on a DIME! This was an AMAZING time for the Southeast that started out CRAPPY, in terms of cold/wintry weather. Hope is not lost yet! FOR YOU PROS...how does this match in terms of analog years? TIA. Oh and sorry for the ot, but I felt this belonged here. I will also start a new thread for the 1960 winter. Jason Yes......this solution works for me! Excellent find!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 0Z Euro ensemble mean is finally showing some +PNA ridging to go with a weak looking eastern -NAO that is more than transitory...~300hr and beyond. Have not seen much of this yet this winter...now to just get some run to run consistency and perhaps some of you can come off the ledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 0Z Euro ensemble mean is finally showing some +PNA ridging to go with a weak looking eastern -NAO that is more than transitory...~300hr and beyond. Have not seen much of this yet this winter...now to just get some run to run consistency and perhaps some of you can come off the ledge Ya i agree we really need the models to start being consistent with this. Just something that looks like a step in the right direction and also Rankin good read! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 0Z Euro ensemble mean is finally showing some +PNA ridging to go with a weak looking eastern -NAO that is more than transitory...~300hr and beyond. Have not seen much of this yet this winter...now to just get some run to run consistency and perhaps some of you can come off the ledge That's good news for sure....at least until the 12Z ensembles come out. Thanks for the update! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 February looks good, nothing to really get excited about right now. Really no reason to follow run after run as they are not going be consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 0Z Euro ensemble mean is finally showing some +PNA ridging to go with a weak looking eastern -NAO that is more than transitory...~300hr and beyond. Have not seen much of this yet this winter...now to just get some run to run consistency and perhaps some of you can come off the ledge more please! Hopefully it continues to show something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 0Z Euro ensemble mean is finally showing some +PNA ridging to go with a weak looking eastern -NAO that is more than transitory...~300hr and beyond. Have not seen much of this yet this winter...now to just get some run to run consistency and perhaps some of you can come off the ledge Amen Mr. Bob! It is WAY too early for cliff diving. I am going out on a limb to say that the first half of winter could be a distant memory (or nightmare in some opinions) and we all are ending with a bang. I noticed a few caveats in the case study for 1960: # 1: it went from one extreme to the other # 2. The winter started out "BLAH" #3. The cold source of air spilled from western Canada (on a conduit from the AK vortex that had been in place?) into the mid section and spilled eastward. # 4. There was copious amounts of moisture (like we are seeing now and it shows no sign of letting up). # 5. Robert (Foothills) has mentioned this year as being from one extreme to the other. # 6. This is more of a question than analysis: the 1960 case study did not really answer (MOST LIKELY B/C I cannot interpret the wording) if that period was Nina or El Niño? If so, what was the intensity? Lastly, it SEEMED from MY interpretation that the NAO was more of a slight neg and/or fluctuated post to neg and vice vs? Any input from you awesome Pros would be helpful, sorry for the book LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Here's the AO/NAO graph for that winter, mild La Nina -.2, -.3, -.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Here's the AO/NAO graph for that winter Steve, don't know if it is possible but, if you could post a similar graph of this winter for comparison of the two. It would be much apprec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Well, the warm-up appears to be blunted but not totally denied. However, the pattern is showing some sign now of returning to climo if not quite totally flipping. The CPC site is showing the NAO returning to neutral, the PNA going slightly positive, and the AO below negative (but all over the place.) In December, the models would underestimate the warmth. Now, they are slightly underestimating the cold in my opinion w/in ten days. I have stated many times that models are often guilty of perpetuating a pattern due to feedback w/in their programming. That is why they don't catch flips until it's too late. FWIW, February is looking promising - but then again we've been there before. IMO the GFS has been more correct in trying to place a trough in the East during the upcoming time frame. That said, the pattern this winter has been basically the same. I think February will be different because the eventuality of Spring will shake-up the wavelengths of the jet. This is where I think Foothills' talk of a big storm could come to fruition. The cut-offs are still around. Cold will come East even if just climo. If the NAO goes negative, we are in serious business. If it doesn't we are still in the "Meh" pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Hasn't been like 59-60 here in Nashville. OHX recorded 38 inches of snow that winter. If we get even a quarter of that in feb and march, I will be ecstatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Hasn't been like 59-60 here in Nashville. OHX recorded 38 inches of snow that winter. If we get even a quarter of that in feb and march, I will be ecstatic. Yea, that would be nice, remains to seen whether would transpire! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Steve, don't know if it is possible but, if you could post a similar graph of this winter for comparison of the two. It would be much apprec. Here's what we have so far through December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 0Z Euro ensemble mean is finally showing some +PNA ridging to go with a weak looking eastern -NAO that is more than transitory...~300hr and beyond. Have not seen much of this yet this winter...now to just get some run to run consistency and perhaps some of you can come off the ledge Thanks Mr Bob for the info! I would prefer it to be showing a western -NAO but beggers can't be choosers. Thanks again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Here's what we have so far through December That was a great read about the 59-60 winter, unfortunately for mby being I'm in eastern NC, it really did give much info for this area but from what I gather it was much better for western NC. The huge caveat I see from the AO/NAO charts daculaweather posted is the AO/NAO have been much more pos this winter than in 59-60,,,,,,,...that would be one concerning factor for a significant change. Am I seeing this right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 After the horrible summers these past two years, I for one would be glad for an extended cool/damp spring. Anything to delay the 90's 100's Thanks for the smiley...I think lol I hate cold springs. I don't know why by 30s/40s for lows and highs in the 50s in april, for example, is much colder than teens in january...and it's just annoying. By that time, I'm ready for those nice spring days with temps in 70s. I am not the only one, I'm sure, who's noticed that the less you've posted the worse winter has gotten, lol. I think, if you are really looking out for us, you'd best be posting more, so we can get a good Feb.!!! I was assuming that because you got so much snow last year, you were snow glutted and didn't care anymore I think we are getting some inklings of icing wanting to show up on the lr. Might be something to watch, as it has been a long time for you and me. T lol...hard to find the will to post when the models keep putting out nothing but crap and boredom, winter wise, run after run after run. Besides, I'd only be complaining and no one wants to hear that over and over. All the snow and excitement, has been a reason that this is making it seem more boring than it already is but I'm not bitter or mad about it per se. I've been expected a crappy winter and that has lessened the blow. But I would still complain of course if I was posting more lol You are right about the icing. I'm starting to think our classic winter time ice events/strong cad is an extent "species". I mean seriously, 6 years since we had anything remotely close to it when in the early 2000s, we had them all the time..even if it was 33 and rain for us. Depressing and aggrivating for sure since I'm a cad weenie and find it one of the more fun things to watch. It's absurd it's been this long and I wonder it holds some meaning for the future or our current climate/weather patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alhooks13 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 That was a great read about the 59-60 winter, unfortunately for mby being I'm in eastern NC, it really did give much info for this area but from what I gather it was much better for western NC. The huge caveat I see from the AO/NAO charts daculaweather posted is the AO/NAO have been much more pos this winter than in 59-60,,,,,,,...that would be one concerning factor for a significant change. Am I seeing this right? That's how I see it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I guess 12z was no good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Pretty good run of the GFS, pac ridging sets up about 180 and lasts thoughout the run, which is needed to fight off the AK PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 12Z GFS develops some blocking in the vicinity of Davis Straight by day 7, and an overall favorable set-up for some potential SE winter type events thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The lower heights in AK keep trying to build back in the entire run, that is concerning but overall not to bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Pretty good run of the GFS, pac ridging sets up about 180 and lasts thoughout the run, which is needed to fight off the AK PV. I'm surprised that people are not talking about the 12z run. really it is a dream run (of potental). We can't focus on the details but if this pattern is correct, watch out SE by the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Just gave the final thumbs-up for tonights NOAA G-IV flight. A good case as it's a fairly major event and the models evolve it into some kind of east coast event after drenching Texas. No flights for 1/23 but maybe one for 1/24 for a PacNW moderate/heavy precip event. Looks like the concern is mounting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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