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Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion III


Rankin5150

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Well, I think today's model runs are no reason to be pessimistic or optimistic, just have to wait and see, hopefully by next weekend we will have a better idea of what will happen, good or bad. If you see from the dream 0z GFS OP run last night and today's 12z Euro Ens run, they aren't to far off at day 10. Granted day 10 isn't good but after this on the 0z run of the GFS is where things improved into hour 380+. To be honest I am sick of seeing the low heights over Alaska, if all that changes the rest of this winter is higher heights in AK I will be happy, even it that means we don't get the blocking we need.

12z Euro ENS Day 10

12zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNH240.gif

0z GFS OP "Dream" Run

00zgfs500mbHeightAnomalyNH252.gif

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In past years when we had multiple chances of snow but they ended up not panning out, I said to myself that I would rather live in a place like FL that never has a chance for snow. That way, at least I would never get my hopes up and end up disappointed. However, now that we've gone through nearly 2 months of winter without even 1 chance for snow, I realize that winter is incredibly boring when we don't have anything to follow. Bring on the snow chances, even if it means we don't get snow. Part of the fun is the hope and excitement of what may happen even if we know there is a good chance we will end up disappointed.

Without a doubt, tracking a possible storm is the addicting part for me.

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I catch your drift, and I cant agree with it more. I enjoy having chances, and events even if they dont produce wintry weather. Theres only one way to hit a homerun or even get the ball in play, and thats to have the pitcher throwing the ball. If the pitcher is just standing there, not throwing any balls, you have zero chance. I know its been said time and time again, but its true... odds are we'll get a couple events before all is said and done.. its just painful having to wait so deep into winter and we all feel like we're about to get burned. Heck, we all might get burned, it's the weather, it's unpredictable. At least we can take solace in the fact that really nobody on the east coast has seen much wintry weather so its not like every week we're getting bypassed while the mid-atlantic and New England are getting crushed.

Oh I certainly agree we need the setup...but I'm just saying I'll take my chances with a seasonal setup. I know sometimes I look at models and only get excited when I see big blasts of arctic air and the perfect setup, but given this winter again I'll be happy taking my chances with just seasonal temps and a less than perfect setup.

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Nevermind. Cold air is dumped into Siberia....

AK Vortex looks like it gets moved out but still nothing good for the southeast on this run.

Yeah, 18z was pretty much "meh". At 384 it looks like it wants to send some cold down towards the middle conus which would probably work it's way east but here we are at 384 again.

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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD

300 PM EST FRI JANUARY 20 2012

... 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 28 - FEB 03, 2012

THE EXPECTED 8-14 DAY MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE SIMILAR TO THE CORRESPONDING

MEAN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WITH SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN OVER

THE CONUS. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE JET STREAM IS HIGHER

TODAY THAN FOR ANY OTHER DAY THIS PAST WEEK AS THE MODELS EXHIBIT LESS

AGREEMENT TODAY. ANALOGS OFF THE MODEL HEIGHT FORECASTS ALSO DISPLAY A HIGHER

DEGREE OF DISAGREEMENT THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS THIS WEEK.

YESTERDAYS 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH WAS GIVEN THE HIGHEST WEIGHTING IN

THE MANUAL BLEND, INDICATES BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,

NORTHERN TIER, AND GREAT LAKES WITH ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF THE

CONUS. THAT PATTERN IS DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE, WHICH INDICATES A

SMALL AREA OF ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND BELOW-NORMAL

HEIGHTS EVERYWHERE ELSE ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS 48 STATES. UPSTREAM PLACEMENTS

OF A RIDGE OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND A TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA ARE SIMILAR IN

THOSE MODELS. THE MANUAL BLEND CONSISTSED MOSTLY OF YESTERDAYS 12Z EUROPEAN

ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE.

YESTERDAYS 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS

MOST OF THE CONUS, EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST, AND POSITIONS THE AREA OF NEGATIVE

HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS ALASKA MUCH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THIS MODEL WAS

INCLUDED IN THE MANUAL BLEND AS AN OUTLIER. THE 06Z GFS WAS INCLUDED IN THE

MANUAL BLEND BECAUSE ITS COMPOSITE ANALOG CORRELATION SCORE OF 0.906 WAS THIRD

HIGHEST AND THE PATTERN IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. RECENT ANOMALY CORRELATIONS

FOR THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE (0.51), ARE ON PAR WITH THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S

OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE

MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED

ON DAY 11...35 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON

DAY 10...AND 20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON

DAY 10.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF

1 TO 5, DUE TO SOEM DEGREE OF AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, OFFSET BY ELEVATED

DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS.

FORECASTER: MATT ROSENCRANS

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FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF

1 TO 5, DUE TO SOEM DEGREE OF AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, OFFSET BY ELEVATED

DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS.

FORECASTER: MATT ROSENCRANS

That is a terrible way to refer to fellow forecasters. :whistle:

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Surprised no one is talking about the severe threat in the SE for later on.Mesoscale is showing a 2k cape right now in SE Ark. and a 70% nado in C/Al

For tomorrow...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1129 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2012

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST

STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE CONUS THROUGH

SATURDAY. A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH /NOW GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING

OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS/ SEEMS LIKELY TO SPREAD FROM THE

OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY TO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC

REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL

UPPER TROUGH STEADILY ADVANCING EASTWARD/AMPLIFYING TO A DEGREE OVER

A LARGE PART OF THE WESTERN STATES/ROCKIES.

...MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS...

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL BE ONGOING

SATURDAY MORNING ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD

FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH

SPREADS EASTWARD FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS/VA BY SATURDAY

NIGHT.

REGARDING EARLY DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL...WHAT WILL LIKELY BE AN

ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE /POSSIBLY INCLUDING SOME EMBEDDED BOWING

STRUCTURES/ MAY POSE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN THE FORM

OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. THIS WILL

GENERALLY BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO A CONTINUED/STEADY MOIST INFLUX FROM

THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN/JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG WITH

RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /ACCENTUATED BY A 45-50 KT

SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET/.

WITH TIME...SUBSEQUENT DIURNALLY-AIDED DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR

INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALONG AND SOUTH OF ANY OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE FRONT

AS DELINEATED BY THE EARLY DAY CONVECTION. MODEST DESTABILIZATION

/ALBEIT RELATIVELY WEAKER/ SHOULD ALSO OCCUR DURING THE DAY WITH

NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

VICINITY/CAROLINAS WITHIN A LESS MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS /MAINLY 50S F

SURFACE DEWPOINTS/. EVEN WITH A TENDENCY FOR A WEAKENING LOWER

TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD/EVENTUAL SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE

CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES /WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT/ INTO THE

AFTERNOON...THE OVERALL SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST BOUTS OF

DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS

MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 01/20/2012

post-279-0-99474700-1327114726.gif

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I'll have to look that up.

anyway the run is "meh". that sums it up. Not enough western ridging this run, but still active with several more detached cutoffs at times, it does turn colder late next weekend , but no big deal.

It looks like the gfs wants to continue w/ sending ov or apps runners up giving us rain then once to our north we get a cold shot. After that we warm up and wait for the next one.

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It looks like the gfs wants to continue w/ sending ov or apps runners up giving us rain then once to our north we get a cold shot. After that we warm up and wait for the next one.

yes . The differences between it and Ecmwf during the next 10 days are huge, whereas GFS has a trough in the east during days 7 through 10, other has it out west. We just can't get agreement in the two, even in the 7 to 10 day with longwaves. Very hard to forecast for sure. If we can get a really good western ridge, I think we'd get very cold, but don't know when that could happen.

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Yeah, just looking at the Euro and GFS op and ens runs the past day or 2, there are considerable differences in the medium range with how each is handling the vortexes to the north and how the longwaves evolve....problem is, even with the differences, hardly any of the runs are spitting out anything desirable.

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