tnweathernut Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Good point. We're all stuck in the dugout and the fat lady's warming up the pipes. Devils advocate here - Some would say we haven't even sniffed the hotdogs from the parking lot yet. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Well, I think today's model runs are no reason to be pessimistic or optimistic, just have to wait and see, hopefully by next weekend we will have a better idea of what will happen, good or bad. If you see from the dream 0z GFS OP run last night and today's 12z Euro Ens run, they aren't to far off at day 10. Granted day 10 isn't good but after this on the 0z run of the GFS is where things improved into hour 380+. To be honest I am sick of seeing the low heights over Alaska, if all that changes the rest of this winter is higher heights in AK I will be happy, even it that means we don't get the blocking we need. 12z Euro ENS Day 10 0z GFS OP "Dream" Run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 In past years when we had multiple chances of snow but they ended up not panning out, I said to myself that I would rather live in a place like FL that never has a chance for snow. That way, at least I would never get my hopes up and end up disappointed. However, now that we've gone through nearly 2 months of winter without even 1 chance for snow, I realize that winter is incredibly boring when we don't have anything to follow. Bring on the snow chances, even if it means we don't get snow. Part of the fun is the hope and excitement of what may happen even if we know there is a good chance we will end up disappointed. Without a doubt, tracking a possible storm is the addicting part for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That doesn't look that bad and would make me think there are some members that probably look pretty good. I like the looks of the ridging over Hudson Bay and Greenland. Wonder what it would look like if you took it out a few days from there? 12z Euro ENS Day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I catch your drift, and I cant agree with it more. I enjoy having chances, and events even if they dont produce wintry weather. Theres only one way to hit a homerun or even get the ball in play, and thats to have the pitcher throwing the ball. If the pitcher is just standing there, not throwing any balls, you have zero chance. I know its been said time and time again, but its true... odds are we'll get a couple events before all is said and done.. its just painful having to wait so deep into winter and we all feel like we're about to get burned. Heck, we all might get burned, it's the weather, it's unpredictable. At least we can take solace in the fact that really nobody on the east coast has seen much wintry weather so its not like every week we're getting bypassed while the mid-atlantic and New England are getting crushed. Oh I certainly agree we need the setup...but I'm just saying I'll take my chances with a seasonal setup. I know sometimes I look at models and only get excited when I see big blasts of arctic air and the perfect setup, but given this winter again I'll be happy taking my chances with just seasonal temps and a less than perfect setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 18Z GFS is running the analysis right now... http://www.daculawea...status_main.php BTW, the data refreshes automatically. We'll find out shortly how things are looking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 18Z GFS is likely to be kind, The Alaska PV is ejected into Central Canada midway through the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 18Z GFS is likely to be kind, The Alaska PV is ejected into Central Canada midway through the run. Nevermind. Cold air is dumped into Siberia.... AK Vortex looks like it gets moved out but still nothing good for the southeast on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Nevermind. Cold air is dumped into Siberia.... AK Vortex looks like it gets moved out but still nothing good for the southeast on this run. Yeah, 18z was pretty much "meh". At 384 it looks like it wants to send some cold down towards the middle conus which would probably work it's way east but here we are at 384 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 18z is always kinda of meh. But 0z and 12z are good steps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD 300 PM EST FRI JANUARY 20 2012 ... 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 28 - FEB 03, 2012 THE EXPECTED 8-14 DAY MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE SIMILAR TO THE CORRESPONDING MEAN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WITH SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE JET STREAM IS HIGHER TODAY THAN FOR ANY OTHER DAY THIS PAST WEEK AS THE MODELS EXHIBIT LESS AGREEMENT TODAY. ANALOGS OFF THE MODEL HEIGHT FORECASTS ALSO DISPLAY A HIGHER DEGREE OF DISAGREEMENT THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS THIS WEEK. YESTERDAYS 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH WAS GIVEN THE HIGHEST WEIGHTING IN THE MANUAL BLEND, INDICATES BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN TIER, AND GREAT LAKES WITH ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. THAT PATTERN IS DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE, WHICH INDICATES A SMALL AREA OF ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS EVERYWHERE ELSE ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS 48 STATES. UPSTREAM PLACEMENTS OF A RIDGE OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND A TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA ARE SIMILAR IN THOSE MODELS. THE MANUAL BLEND CONSISTSED MOSTLY OF YESTERDAYS 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE. YESTERDAYS 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST, AND POSITIONS THE AREA OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS ALASKA MUCH FURTHER TO THE WEST. THIS MODEL WAS INCLUDED IN THE MANUAL BLEND AS AN OUTLIER. THE 06Z GFS WAS INCLUDED IN THE MANUAL BLEND BECAUSE ITS COMPOSITE ANALOG CORRELATION SCORE OF 0.906 WAS THIRD HIGHEST AND THE PATTERN IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. RECENT ANOMALY CORRELATIONS FOR THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE (0.51), ARE ON PAR WITH THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...35 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO SOEM DEGREE OF AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, OFFSET BY ELEVATED DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS. FORECASTER: MATT ROSENCRANS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, DUE TO SOEM DEGREE OF AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, OFFSET BY ELEVATED DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS. FORECASTER: MATT ROSENCRANS That is a terrible way to refer to fellow forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Ensemble members are so different O.o. I feel sorry for the Climatologists. Oh, I know this! This is where you pick the ones that are in agreement, right? Ok, well, hmmmm.....ok, wellllll.........dang, this is a hard one...mmmmmm.... this test is flawed T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Surprised no one is talking about the severe threat in the SE for later on.Mesoscale is showing a 2k cape right now in SE Ark. and a 70% nado in C/Al Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Robert mentioned possible severe threat earlier in the week for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 2k Mucapes is ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Surprised no one is talking about the severe threat in the SE for later on.Mesoscale is showing a 2k cape right now in SE Ark. and a 70% nado in C/Al For tomorrow... DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2012 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH /NOW GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS/ SEEMS LIKELY TO SPREAD FROM THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY TO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH STEADILY ADVANCING EASTWARD/AMPLIFYING TO A DEGREE OVER A LARGE PART OF THE WESTERN STATES/ROCKIES. ...MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS... SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPREADS EASTWARD FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS/VA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. REGARDING EARLY DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL...WHAT WILL LIKELY BE AN ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE /POSSIBLY INCLUDING SOME EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES/ MAY POSE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO A CONTINUED/STEADY MOIST INFLUX FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN/JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /ACCENTUATED BY A 45-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET/. WITH TIME...SUBSEQUENT DIURNALLY-AIDED DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALONG AND SOUTH OF ANY OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE FRONT AS DELINEATED BY THE EARLY DAY CONVECTION. MODEST DESTABILIZATION /ALBEIT RELATIVELY WEAKER/ SHOULD ALSO OCCUR DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY/CAROLINAS WITHIN A LESS MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS /MAINLY 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/. EVEN WITH A TENDENCY FOR A WEAKENING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD/EVENTUAL SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES /WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT/ INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE OVERALL SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 01/20/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 tonights GFS has the cutoff in Tex mid week, opening up by Friday . So that at 168 hours, theres a ridge developing off the northwest coast. Plenty of cold air to get pushed down as a ridge builds out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 tonights GFS has the cutoff in Tex mid week, opening up by Friday . So that at 168 hours, theres a ridge developing off the northwest coast. Plenty of cold air to get pushed down as a ridge builds out west. Oremus (that's Latin and it sums it all up). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Oremus (that's Latin and it sums it all up). I'll have to look that up.anyway the run is "meh". that sums it up. Not enough western ridging this run, but still active with several more detached cutoffs at times, it does turn colder late next weekend , but no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I'll have to look that up. anyway the run is "meh". that sums it up. Not enough western ridging this run, but still active with several more detached cutoffs at times, it does turn colder late next weekend , but no big deal. "let us pray" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I thought that the way Robert talked it was a good run? Or did I miss read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 By the way, the Latin word for snow is "nix". This winter has been a nix in our vocab ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I'll have to look that up. anyway the run is "meh". that sums it up. Not enough western ridging this run, but still active with several more detached cutoffs at times, it does turn colder late next weekend , but no big deal. It looks like the gfs wants to continue w/ sending ov or apps runners up giving us rain then once to our north we get a cold shot. After that we warm up and wait for the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 It looks like the gfs wants to continue w/ sending ov or apps runners up giving us rain then once to our north we get a cold shot. After that we warm up and wait for the next one. yes . The differences between it and Ecmwf during the next 10 days are huge, whereas GFS has a trough in the east during days 7 through 10, other has it out west. We just can't get agreement in the two, even in the 7 to 10 day with longwaves. Very hard to forecast for sure. If we can get a really good western ridge, I think we'd get very cold, but don't know when that could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Yeah, just looking at the Euro and GFS op and ens runs the past day or 2, there are considerable differences in the medium range with how each is handling the vortexes to the north and how the longwaves evolve....problem is, even with the differences, hardly any of the runs are spitting out anything desirable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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