POWERSTROKE Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 @ 147 the ULL over Texas is really cranking. Notice the cold temp hub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 At 384 it looked like jan 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 What might be even better is the 204 - 288 time frame where we have some sustained cold in the SE and especially MBY. The fact that it's showing this cold shot coming earlier is a good sign I think. 384 finally had a fantasy storm but it looked like cold chasing away the rain to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The pesky alaska vortex keeps showing up. I don't like it. For those of us in the upper south, this pattern could perform. Should be nice for new england. What bothers me is that the models have no idea how to handle the ull in texas. This is three GFS runs in a row with drastically different solutions. One would hope that it would get picked up by a cold front, and be a large apps running storm that locks in cold, and maybe gives some snow from southern arkansas, up the west side of the apps, building a stronger ridge into greenland and locking in the cold. But I was hoping for that with the last ull and subsequent light snow "event" here in nashville last week. Unfortunately, its not what happened. But at least the mega ridge never really made an appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The pesky alaska vortex keeps showing up. I don't like it. For those of us in the upper south, this pattern could perform. Should be nice for new england. What bothers me is that the models have no idea how to handle the ull in texas. This is three GFS runs in a row with drastically different solutions. One would hope that it would get picked up by a cold front, and be a large apps running storm that locks in cold, and maybe gives some snow from southern arkansas, up the west side of the apps, building a stronger ridge into greenland and locking in the cold. But I was hoping for that with the last ull and subsequent light snow "event" here in nashville last week. Unfortunately, its not what happened. But at least the mega ridge never really made an appearance. If the GFS is correct that 200 - 300 range might be your ticket..especially just as the cold air is sitting in. We might have some surprises if we can get timing right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 What might be even better is the 204 - 288 time frame where we have some sustained cold in the SE and especially MBY. The fact that it's showing this cold shot coming earlier is a good sign I think. 384 finally had a fantasy storm but it looked like cold chasing away the rain to me. Nope. That pretty much sums it up. ehh... The first thing that popped into my mind after sifting through the pannels was "Move along folks... nothing to see here... move along..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 At 384 it looked like jan 1996 minus the cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 50/50 chance we'll be running WSR on the wave in the Pacific 22/00Z that will evolve into this event. Decent model agreement but the 06Z GFS is the outlier of the major global models, moving the wave along instead of cutting it off like the others. We have very limited hours this year due to budget concerns but with little happening it might be worth it. Awesome news and I was hoping WSR would be considered. Thanks for that information, ohleary. Things looked good so I tasked them to fly 22/00Z. Might be sending them out for the next few days too. The mission will take the Gulfstream IV north, east and west of Hawaii, and occasionally as far as Alaska. Data gathered in the upper atmosphere by the NOAA aircraft, which flies at 45,000 feet, will be supplemented by data collected at lower altitudes by a U.S. Air Force Reserve weather reconnaissance plane. The flight tracks for both aircraft will be developed by NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Here's the map of the general recon location http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=216328010394910267560.0004b6f921c7dbe34bc42&msa=0&ll=44.276671,-150.996094&spn=50.634714,79.013672 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The mission will take the Gulfstream IV north, east and west of Hawaii, and occasionally as far as Alaska. Data gathered in the upper atmosphere by the NOAA aircraft, which flies at 45,000 feet, will be supplemented by data collected at lower altitudes by a U.S. Air Force Reserve weather reconnaissance plane. The flight tracks for both aircraft will be developed by NCEP. That is that feature I was asking about last night. I couldn't extrapolate how long it would take to work toward us. Where is this thread you extracted this stuff from? Thanks, man! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Euro is a train wreck at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 minus the cold air That goes without saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Go figure it changes every run..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Euro is a train wreck at 240 I saw that too. I figured since nobody else was going to mention it, I wasn't either. I thought it was one of those things where if it isn't acknowledged, it'll just go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That is that feature I was asking about last night. I couldn't extrapolate how long it would take to work toward us. Where is this thread you extracted this stuff from? Thanks, man! T From here Tony http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/29440-medium-range-discussion-winter-2011-12/page__st__665 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Ensemble members are so different O.o. I feel sorry for the Climatologists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Euro is a train wreck at 240 My eye's may be playing tricks on me but isn't their a torch over Alaska?One other thang .Do we want the models to look cold and stormy now or when Feb gets here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 My eye's may be playing tricks on me but isn't their a torch over Alaska? Yep, we just need to shove the SE ridge out over the ocean where it belongs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 My eye's may be playing tricks on me but isn't their a torch over Alaska? Yeah saw that. You would have to think a weather event that significant couldn't last forever. They need to thaw out sometime. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Move the Central Pacific Ridge to the east some and strengthen the elevated heights near Greenland and it's not that bad of a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 For some of the Alabama/GA folks, we can always look at March 1, 2009 and have hope. Upper Level Lows are awesome. Btw, christmas of 08 was almost 80 degrees down here. Not only that but this year March 1 will be Feb 29 so that will make the storm even more ferocious. Hey, when grasping at straws go all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It is coming, folks, it is definitely coming. It will be here in twelve days. It is called February, folks. Get ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It is coming, folks, it is definitely coming. It will be here in twelve days. It is called February, folks. Get ready. I was with you this morning, sharing your optimism, but that vortex over the west coast and the ridge in the alleutians isn't a good sign at all. We'd need a much more pronounced -NAO to keep us from torching IMO. I have tried to be optimistic all winter, but it just seems one step forward and two back. Still optimistic, but pessimism is creeping in ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I was with you this morning, sharing your optimism, but that vortex over the west coast and the ridge in the alleutians isn't a good sign at all. We'd need a much more pronounced -NAO to keep us from torching IMO. I have tried to be optimistic all winter, but it just seems one step forward and two back. Still optimistic, but pessimism is creeping in ATM The Ridge is becoming a concern for me also. It's becoming more consistently placed in a position that is not optimal in the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 You know waiting for winter to get started this year and with the hopes we have had ,and I pray we have again,of a colder Feb is like getting a gift from someone you did't expect at Christmas.You want to open it because it could be just what you wanted and maybe more or it could be another pair of socks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I was with you this morning, sharing your optimism, but that vortex over the west coast and the ridge in the alleutians isn't a good sign at all. We'd need a much more pronounced -NAO to keep us from torching IMO. I have tried to be optimistic all winter, but it just seems one step forward and two back. Still optimistic, but pessimism is creeping in ATM Not sure I follow. I don't see anything in either model to really suggest a torch. Granted Euro did not look good with it so cold in the west but even it was not a full blown torch. For me I'm fine with it being seasonal for Feb. Really that's all we need. These past two winters we've been used to seeing spectacular home runs and thus we are looking for the straight down the plate medium speed pitch. It's going to be about timing and if we can just get it seasonal for Feb. that will be good enough for me. With this active of a pattern I would rather take fifty swings and knock one out of the park then wait all winter for the perfect pitch. I know the analogy is not perfect but you catch my drift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not sure I follow. I don't see anything in either model to really suggest a torch. Granted Euro did not look good with it so cold in the west but even it was not a full blown torch. For me I'm fine with it being seasonal for Feb. Really that's all we need. These past two winters we've been used to seeing spectacular home runs and thus we are looking for the straight down the plate medium speed pitch. It's going to be about timing and if we can just get it seasonal for Feb. that will be good enough for me. With this active of a pattern I would rather take fifty swings and knock one out of the park then wait all winter for the perfect pitch. I know the analogy is not perfect but you catch my drift. Just saying if you put a ridge in the Alleutians and a deep trough centered on the west coast, it's going to be very hard not to have a ridge in the east. The only way to counter, from what I know, would be some pretty serious blocking on the Atlantic side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not sure I follow. I don't see anything in either model to really suggest a torch. Granted Euro did not look good with it so cold in the west but even it was not a full blown torch. For me I'm fine with it being seasonal for Feb. Really that's all we need. These past two winters we've been used to seeing spectacular home runs and thus we are looking for the straight down the plate medium speed pitch. It's going to be about timing and if we can just get it seasonal for Feb. that will be good enough for me. With this active of a pattern I would rather take fifty swings and knock one out of the park then wait all winter for the perfect pitch. I know the analogy is not perfect but you catch my drift. I catch your drift, and I cant agree with it more. I enjoy having chances, and events even if they dont produce wintry weather. Theres only one way to hit a homerun or even get the ball in play, and thats to have the pitcher throwing the ball. If the pitcher is just standing there, not throwing any balls, you have zero chance. I know its been said time and time again, but its true... odds are we'll get a couple events before all is said and done.. its just painful having to wait so deep into winter and we all feel like we're about to get burned. Heck, we all might get burned, it's the weather, it's unpredictable. At least we can take solace in the fact that really nobody on the east coast has seen much wintry weather so its not like every week we're getting bypassed while the mid-atlantic and New England are getting crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I haven't tracked a single snowstorm threat this year so I guess you could say I haven't even got in the batters box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I haven't tracked a single snowstorm threat this year so I guess you could say I haven't even got in the batters box. Good point. We're all stuck in the dugout and the fat lady's warming up the pipes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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