NGA WINTER Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hope is alive... 12 hours later.... Hope is not alive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looks darn good, to bad the its 300+ hours out...model run hugging for now :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 1060 high and a massive arctic outbreak late in the run. Of course lately the GFS has been showing this. If we get a PNA + ridge out west, it will happen. If not, the west gets cold and we get warmer. The critical component is probably the cutoff and the development of the Maine-to-Hudson Bay ridging that shows up in 5 days. Also, this run redvelops the north Alaskan block, this time combined with Greenland ridging, a critical piece missing. That would force cold to encompass most of the US and keep a southern and eastern storm track. Translation: winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It is coming, folks. It is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That's a sweet squall line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Robert, what is the time frame for that feature over Hawaii to work it's way across to us? Thanks, Tony Edit:...... sorry. I'm looking at the day 11 500 heights.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yeah, the pattern evolution on this 00z run of the GFS beats anything we've seen all winter...18z was better too. The RaleighWx maps actually show a sfc high of 1070mb in Montana at hr372 (don't think I've ever seen one that high on a model) with -30 850 temps in the upper midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It is coming, folks. It is coming. Should we bend over and grab our ankles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yeah, the pattern evolution on this 00z run of the GFS beats anything we've seen all winter...18z was better too. The RaleighWx maps actually show a sfc high of 1070mb in Montana at hr372 (don't think I've ever seen one that high on a model) with -30 850 temps in the upper midwest. Holy Cow i didn't notice that FREAKING 1070 !!..LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not sure if you would call it support or not but here is something from the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yeah, the pattern evolution on this 00z run of the GFS beats anything we've seen all winter...18z was better too. The RaleighWx maps actually show a sfc high of 1070mb in Montana at hr372 (don't think I've ever seen one that high on a model) with -30 850 temps in the upper midwest. Guess I'd better switch maps, as the NCEP maps I'm looking at only has a 1060. I like your map better T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not sure if you would call it support or not but here is something from the ensembles. At least both show potential,but showing a 1070 is wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 All of this good talk about the GFS 00Z and the euro is not even spoken about as of 3:15am? Come on guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 ecmwf isn't as good looking as GFS,with more troughing about to dig into the west at day 10, but its ensembles are probably closer to GFS. Both models have the ridging between Greenland and Hudson Bay starting in one week. The 6z GFS held on to similar like 00z GFS was, but wasn't as clean a flow, but began the changes around day 7 as well. The best thing is to watch the trends of both models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 743 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2012 VALID 12Z TUE JAN 24 2012 - 12Z FRI JAN 27 2012 CHANGES WILL BE OCCURRING AT HIGHER LATITUDES THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP VORTEX IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PACIFIC WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REFORMS CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF NORTH AMERICA. THE EXPECTED LATITUDE OF THE POLAR VORTEX SHOULD KEEP SYSTEMS PROGRESSIVE WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDES/LOWER 48 UNITED STATES. A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY PROGRESSING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHIFTS THE QUASI-ZONAL PACIFIC JET STREAM NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA BACK TO THE WESTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER AND SHOULD ALLOW ENERGY/TROUGHING TO DIG DOWNSTREAM INTO THE PLAINS. EARLY ON..00Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN COMPROMISE WITH THE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO CANADA. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE GUIDANCE CONVERGES TO SOME DEGREE WITH TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE WEST INTO THE PLAINS BEFORE THE MODELS DIVERGE ONCE MORE...WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF DROPPING A DEEP CYCLONE INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WHILE THE 00Z GFS KICKS THE SYSTEM EASTWARD. BOTH CAMPS HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS TO AVOID BEING DISMISSED. BIASES IN THE GUIDANCE COME INTO PLAY AT THIS POINT IN THE DECISION AS THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF CAN BE TOO SLOW TO PROGRESS SYSTEMS BEYOND 120 HOURS/FIVE DAYS INTO THE FUTURE WHILE THE GFS CAN BE TOO QUICK WITH SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERLIES. LATEST 06Z GFS HAS GONE TO A CONSIDERABLY SLOW SOLUTION AS IT JOINS THE CMC/UKMET/ECMWF CAMP BUT MAY BE NOW TOO SLOW. THIS HAS LED HPC UPDATED MORNING PROGS TO A 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS SOLUTION THRU THE PERIOD ALLOWING A SOUTHERN STREAM CYCLONE TO FORM IN TEXAS BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TO OFF THE NEW ENG COAST BY DAY 7 FRI. POTENTIAL MDT TO HVY SNOW EVENT FRO ERN MN/NRN WI AND TEH NRN PENINSULA OF MI MONDAY. HEAVY PCPN WILL CONTINUE IN THE CA SIERRA EARLY PERIOD THEN SHIFT NWD INTO B.C. AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND COASTAL RANGES AFTER BY WEEK. HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SETTING UP FOR EASTERN TX MID WEEK. ROTH/ROSENSTEIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Good to see some action this morning. I looked at the 00z. It had fantasy written all over it...but we all know it's probably just that a fantasy. The good thing is that the GFS continues to hold it's guns that a positive change for us will happen in around two weeks. I doubt it's the mega cold that 00z is serving but it will probably be more like the 6z which would be fine. Here's to hoping it locks and we all get a good storm out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Models showing change around a weeks time. Where it goes from there is anyones guess and the models will continue to fluctuate wildly i would imagine. We are now taking baby steps toward a more promising pattern. With the clock ticking though, we are going to need to make a few bigger steps in the coming days. I hope that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Talk about a roller coaster ride. The changes from Saturday to Monday are going to be crazy. But 60s all next week. So much for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It is coming, folks. It is coming. Yes, spring is right around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I think Spring will be a long time coming. I think we turn cold and snowy for the rest of winter and folks will be saying where is spring. well all I can say is SPRING WAS IN JANUARY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 A couple of days back the NAO was looking good, then yesterday not so good (but not horrible), and today looking good again. I guess you can say the trends are working in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 12z gfs still shows cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 A couple of days back the NAO was looking good, then yesterday not so good (but not horrible), and today looking good again. I guess you can say the trends are working in our favor. Or that it's more of the same back and forth and nothing is really changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 12z gfs still shows cold? It's not out quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It is coming, folks. It is coming. I hope so, because this weather/winter has been about as bad as it gets. So bad that I've had zero interest in it almost, which is partly the reason I haven't posted much in this forum...although most could care less I'm sure. I do think things will change as we get into feb or march because for no other reason it would be unusual for sure to keep such a crappy and warm pattern for so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 12z gfs still shows cold? Go here and scroll down to 12Z http://www.daculaweather.com/model_run_status_main.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I hope so, because this weather/winter has been about as bad as it gets. So bad that I've had zero interest in it almost, which is partly the reason I haven't posted much in this forum...although most could care less I'm sure. I do think things will change as we get into feb or march because for no other reason it would be unusual for sure to keep such a crappy and warm pattern for so long. After the horrible summers these past two years, I for one would be glad for an extended cool/damp spring. Anything to delay the 90's 100's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I hope so, because this weather/winter has been about as bad as it gets. So bad that I've had zero interest in it almost, which is partly the reason I haven't posted much in this forum...although most could care less I'm sure. I do think things will change as we get into feb or march because for no other reason it would be unusual for sure to keep such a crappy and warm pattern for so long. I am not the only one, I'm sure, who's noticed that the less you've posted the worse winter has gotten, lol. I think, if you are really looking out for us, you'd best be posting more, so we can get a good Feb.!!! I was assuming that because you got so much snow last year, you were snow glutted and didn't care anymore I think we are getting some inklings of icing wanting to show up on the lr. Might be something to watch, as it has been a long time for you and me. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 @ 147 the ULL over Texas is really cranking. Notice the cold temp hub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.