jaxjagman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Well are you going to give us any details? Basically cold W and WARM for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Of course its the 18z that gives hope. Not sure why people are down on it. Whatever the mechanism, appears to be a sustained period of cold and disturbances diving down the ridge. It appears that the ull (which for now is snowless) is the culprit. Would love to see that thing eject a little later with the cold diving in. A big storm with at least a couple days of sustained cold is all I'm asking for at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Well are you going to give us any details? It only dips down into the -10 in N. Dak once around 370 then a quick warm up.I just scrolled through it looking for cold.It's not cold to the extreme out W but it's winter anyways for them.Around 444 you got 70's pushing close to Memphis,it's sad to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Ok, people, its only Jan 19th. There's a LONG ways to go....the up and down emotions based on 1 model run, from some of you, are quite amusing Honestly, looking much beyond 5 days and making a concrete statement is hopeless. Last week's runs were showing very warm temps for the SE in the long term and no relief to the PV south of Alaska. Now, its nearly a 180 and the warm temps have been squashed somewhat. Also, there are positive signs starting to show up. Trying to pinpoint the exact location of the Pacific trough or an eastern Canadian ridge long term is pointless. Look at the BIG picture and notice there are some changes trying to take shape. With the continued storminess and cutoffs there's no telling what can happen, but it could be quite exciting in Feb, IMHO. Agreed. You are right but I find it funny that that line of it's only xxxx date has been used and abused this winter. It hasn't been used and abused, it's the truth. It's a fact that it's only January 19th, and it's a fact that we have plenty of winter left. Regardless of what models have to say today, it doesn't change. And for those of you worried about the sun angle from here on out are a little too worrisome...I wouldn't start worrying about that until late feb at the earliest, IMO it should only be a factor for March snowfalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Agreed. It hasn't been used and abused, it's the truth. It's a fact that it's only January 19th, and it's a fact that we have plenty of winter left. Regardless of what models have to say today, it doesn't change. And for those of you worried about the sun angle from here on out are a little too worrisome...I wouldn't start worrying about that until late feb at the earliest, IMO it should only be a factor for March snowfalls As much as the winter we seem to be losing if this pattern stays the same in a couple months wave after wave severe season looks ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Week 1 is still a torch (Jan 23-29). Week 2 is cooling, maybe +3 at PHL, with some hints of a -NAO. Week 3 is weird and not what I was expecting - it looks like a +PNA with a total torch coast to coast in Canada, but temps closer to normal in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Week 4 sets up a standard +PNA/-NAO configuration with cool anomalies in the Eastern 1/3 of the country. Adam is keeping hope alive with his interpretation of Week 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Well are you going to give us any details? A resultant cold NE and normal SE pattern from a greenland block is pushed out another week (week 4) which in effect is mid to late Feb....at least according to one of my vendors...won't see them until I get into work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 A resultant cold NE and normal SE pattern from a greenland block is pushed out another week (week 4) which in effect is mid to late Feb....at least according to one of my vendors...won't see them until I get into work This is my biggest fear. Outside of the mountains, any later than this and the chances for a widespread winter storm go way down. Cold and rainy March and April anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Now, its nearly a 180 and the warm temps have been squashed somewhat. So if anomalies go from +12 to +15 down to +8 (KBNA 12z GFSx MOS, Mon thru Fri AM), then we have a squashed warm pattern? I don't see this as a 180 swap...this is the same thing that is driving everyone to believe the models are flip flopping...It is still warm one way or the other. The details are slightly different but the forecast remains fairly straightforward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 It only dips down into the -10 in N. Dak once around 370 then a quick warm up.I just scrolled through it looking for cold.It's not cold to the extreme out W but it's winter anyways for them.Around 444 you got 70's pushing close to Memphis,it's sad to look at A resultant cold NE and normal SE pattern from a greenland block is pushed out another week (week 4) which in effect is mid to late Feb....at least according to one of my vendors...won't see them until I get into work Thanks. Guess we just can't catch a break this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hey guys there is still a lot that can happen and will happen. It's only the middle of Jan. The models will change in a few hours and they will change tomorrow morning. There looks to be some type of pattern change going to happena nd we all no that the models have not done very well at handeling pattern changes. Lets just let it play out and see what happens before we go cliff diving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 For some of the Alabama/GA folks, we can always look at March 1, 2009 and have hope. Upper Level Lows are awesome. Btw, christmas of 08 was almost 80 degrees down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 We are definitely burning up prime climo time now and the outlook is bleak. I am still sticking to my guns that a lot of central NC may get blanked this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 We are definitely burning up prime climo time now and the outlook is bleak. I am still sticking to my guns that a lot of central NC may get blanked this year. how many times has that happened since the 1800's? You may end up being right...that Alaskan vortex just won't quit, but the models finally show it moving atleast for a few days, toward FEB. We'll see though. The consolation prize could be wet snow in March, that doesnt' stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 how many times has that happened since the 1800's? You may end up being right...that Alaskan vortex just won't quit, but the models finally show it moving atleast for a few days, toward FEB. We'll see though. The consolation prize could be wet snow in March, that doesnt' stick. If my memory is right I went through the 1991-92 winter without any wintry precip at all. The only time I can remember that happening in my backyard. I still think February will be different for us with at least the threat for some winter precip. Mostly ice though I'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 JB tonight is still on the change train for Feb? We'll see! And the bottom line is the flip that I think you will see when we total it all up, from the first half to the second half of winter has begun. It does get warmer for a while, but blocking is locking and is supported by the stratwarm. Not only will cold return, but there is a threat of severe cold in the first two weeks of February out of this pattern. If one looks at the week two temps globally you can see how cold it is, except in the the eastern US, and my take is that before its over, that area will have to go through it too! He didn't specifically say SE but east, so I would think it is covering us somewhat also. The evolutions starts days 8.5 to 16 for after days 1-8 My take is after the warm up next week, a fab feb for lovers of winter is on the way. I believe we are seeing a chopping down of the front part of winter, and though there will be a break for a time, its coming back longer and stronger after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 If my memory is right I went through the 1991-92 winter without any wintry precip at all. The only time I can remember that happening in my backyard. I still think February will be different for us with at least the threat for some winter precip. Mostly ice though I'm afraid. That 91 -92 year was bad for the Upstate (here too), as well as 05/06. I remember 05 to 08 being extremely bad around here, and I think it was the Winter of 06/07 that had the least snow I ever seen here (and I'm 42), with only 10 minutes of Flurries in February. I think that was on the backside of the "snowicane" that hit the MidAtlantic and Northeast , the storm that had an "eye". I don't see any completely snowless years in the records at GSP. (back to 1960 anyway) I know that my area gets major snow when GSP doesn't though, its happened more often than the reverse (GSP gets snow that I don't). Strangely, CLT gets more snow than our area many times. If we don't see a flake, it will be a first for me. I doubt it. When Seattle and Alaska does well, we usually do a month later. I'm still riding mostly on the fact that it will be a warm Winter now, but with one major event, possibly 2. And you're right, ice and damming could be one of them. This graph shows how bad it's been in the Upstate. I've done a whole lot better with the last 3 years being above normal in snow. All 3 years I've beat the Upstate here, by a good amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Grasping for straws here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I would love to see some ZR/IP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 gfs did a whole flip this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 pretty close to being a ice event in Tn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 gfs did a whole flip this run Whatelse is new? Honestly I think we should just stop looking at the GFS for the rest of the season. Something is obviously wrong with it this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Around Hour 180 looks to be some snow for the mountains of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Whatelse is new? Honestly I think we should just stop looking at the GFS for the rest of the season. Something is obviously wrong with it this year. Probably right,i have my doubts right now on any model but at least it's picking onto sumfin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 This GFS run has positive 500mb height anomalies over Greenland that are impressive at hour 276. It also looks like the AK Vortex dislodges into central Canada around hour 200. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Pretty impressive ice storm up N,not sure i buy into that though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 This GFS run has positive 500mb height anomalies over Greenland that are impressive at hour 276. Yeah, so different than 12z run, it breaks the PV into pieces, western ridge tries to build at end of run. Great look at the end of the run, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 This GFS run has positive 500mb height anomalies over Greenland that are impressive at hour 276. It also looks like the AK Vortex dislodges into central Canada around hour 200. I agree, this run did look better. By the end of the run the cold is in the middle of the conus and looks to be working it's way east. I will say one thing, if we can get some cold air in here we have a shot w/ how active the flow is. See, I can be positive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Ya the end of the run brings down a mother load of cold air! it has snow down to the gulf. Brings it right down from Canada through the plains then SE. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 What happens with the TX cutoff is crucial this run. Who knows if its right, but its a sign (like last few days) that the building heights from Maine to Hudson Bay are going to play on the pattern. By 156 hours the split occurs (its back on). The cutoff develops severe weather in Ms. Al and the 1040 high dams down to NC on Wednesday (no ice, just upper 30s and rain). Then the upper low absorbs just enough cold air to snow in Tenn Valley, which fits whats happend twice. At 168 hours the whole flow is in the midst of change, the Hudson Bay blocking is there, and the PV weakens in Alaska so that nw flow is in course, which is much, much colder scenario, and much sooner than models showed earlier. There is extremely strong ridging in Hudson Bay, so this means very supressed flow. Usually models don't handle supressed flow well when there is 50/50 low and Baffin Island blocking, so be on the lookout for that upper low to be further south than shown at days 7 through 10 time frame. Who knows if this run is right , trends are important though and the mishandling of the cutoff next week means a lot. Atleast theres no major west coast trough , east ridge this run. It could return next run though. If this run is right, there would eventually be an ice storm in NC and upper SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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