Rankin5150 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Ok, people, its only Jan 19th. There's a LONG ways to go....the up and down emotions based on 1 model run, from some of you, are quite amusing Honestly, looking much beyond 5 days and making a concrete statement is hopeless. Last week's runs were showing very warm temps for the SE in the long term and no relief to the PV south of Alaska. Now, its nearly a 180 and the warm temps have been squashed somewhat. Also, there are positive signs starting to show up. Trying to pinpoint the exact location of the Pacific trough or an eastern Canadian ridge long term is pointless. Look at the BIG picture and notice there are some changes trying to take shape. With the continued storminess and cutoffs there's no telling what can happen, but it could be quite exciting in Feb, IMHO. EXACTLY!! I have tried to relay this message in so many different ways. People...there is STILL A LOT OF WINTER LEFT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Just spotted this Weather Bell weelkly analysis for 01-18-2012.Updated map looks encouraging. Look how the CFSV2 has changed with its Feb portrayal at 700 mb. This from early January strong positive Arctic Oscillation and a continuation of what we have had all winter... to the latest run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Sad im reading the new england thread seeing e eryone up that way get excited about the weekend snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I disagree with the part where you say areas south of TN/NC should expect snowless winters. In my entire life, I've only seen 2 or 3 snowless winters. I know the Atlanta area usually gets at least a light dusting every winter. Even in one of the worst winters ever (98-99) there was snow in Atlanta. I guess I'd consider a trace/dusting snowless. That's all we've had here in Nashville this year, and there are only two years since 1886 where that's all we've had (one season there was zero, and then in 04-05 we had a trace). There are a couple winters where we had less than an inch total.... but lots of years 39, since 1886, we've had double digit snowfall. In the last 23 years, its only happen 4 times (last year, 02/03,95/96, and 87/88) For us to have just a trace, its a big deal. For those south of nc/tn to have a trace, its more normal. Link to nashville season/monthly snow totals http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/?n=monthlysnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I don't know why anyone is optimistic about the rest of winter as far as snow goes. Anytime the models show something out past a week, it just takes it away the next run. It's been doing this all winter. The pattern is not going to change this winter. It'll be spring and we'll have to wait until then for a real change. Maybe next winter will be better. What I hope for is that the first 90's get delayed, and delayed, and delayed and we finally have to give up and wait for the next summer! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 EXACTLY!! I have tried to relay this message in so many different ways. People...there is STILL A LOT OF WINTER LEFT! The problem is, temps usually only get warmer from now until July. We've reached the peak of the winter and from now on the sun angle will keep increasing and temps will respond accordingly. And really once we get past mid-February, chances for snow go way down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Ok, people, its only Jan 19th. There's a LONG ways to go....the up and down emotions based on 1 model run, from some of you, are quite amusing Honestly, looking much beyond 5 days and making a concrete statement is hopeless. Last week's runs were showing very warm temps for the SE in the long term and no relief to the PV south of Alaska. Now, its nearly a 180 and the warm temps have been squashed somewhat. Also, there are positive signs starting to show up. Trying to pinpoint the exact location of the Pacific trough or an eastern Canadian ridge long term is pointless. Look at the BIG picture and notice there are some changes trying to take shape. With the continued storminess and cutoffs there's no telling what can happen, but it could be quite exciting in Feb, IMHO. Great post!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The problem is, temps usually only get warmer from now until July. We've reached the peak of the winter and from now on the sun angle will keep increasing and temps will respond accordingly. And really once we get past mid-February, chances for snow go way down. True, the temps only go up from here. Fact, I've seen snow in April in NC. Fact, the biggest "storm of the century" was in March. Fact, it's only Jan 19th! All I'm saying is there's a long ways to go. If we haven't seen much of anything by mid March(2 WHOLE months from now), then you can jump off of the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 True, the temps only go up from here. Fact, I've seen snow in April in NC. Fact, the biggest "storm of the century" was in March. Fact, it's only Jan 19th! All I'm saying is there's a long ways to go. If we haven't seen much of anything by mid March(2 WHOLE months from now), then you can jump off of the cliff. For what it is worth. I think the words you have printed are correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 True, the temps only go up from here. Fact, I've seen snow in April in GA NC. Fact, the biggest "storm of the century" was in March.(WOO HOO) Fact, it's only Jan 19th! All I'm saying is there's a long ways to go. If we haven't seen much of anything by mid March(2 WHOLE months from now), then you can jump off of the cliff. Excellent post! This is my philosophy....no cliff diving for me yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 What I hope for is that the first 90's get delayed, and delayed, and delayed and we finally have to give up and wait for the next summer! T Now this? This is positive thinking!! I completely agree with this statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The problem is, temps usually only get warmer from now until July. We've reached the peak of the winter and from now on the sun angle will keep increasing and temps will respond accordingly. And really once we get past mid-February, chances for snow go way down. You know every year I hear about the sun angle which can become a problem but then I think about the winter of 1960.March to be exact..Snowed 4 wed that month and the snow stayled around and bitter cold .I'm not talking NW or NE I talking NC.and not just the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 True, the temps only go up from here. Fact, I've seen snow in April in NC. Fact, the biggest "storm of the century" was in March. Fact, it's only Jan 19th! All I'm saying is there's a long ways to go. If we haven't seen much of anything by mid March(2 WHOLE months from now), then you can jump off of the cliff. You are right but I find it funny that that line of it's only xxxx date has been used and abused this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Australia must be loving this pattern! Just spotted this Weather Bell weelkly analysis for 01-18-2012.Updated map looks encouraging. Look how the CFSV2 has changed with its Feb portrayal at 700 mb. This from early January strong positive Arctic Oscillation and a continuation of what we have had all winter... to the latest run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Australia must be loving this pattern! Yes, I bet some are but the swimwear industry is not impressed with the way summer has been this year. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/australia/8965155/Cold-Australian-summer-sees-swimwear-profits-plummet.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 guys winter is only a month old. we still have Feb. March and April. I'm sixty and have lived in the mtns. my whole life and have seen the snowiest and biggest snows in March and some in April. I still have a lot of hope there will be fun and games starting in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I just wanna track one storm... Is that possible?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 EXACTLY!! I have tried to relay this message in so many different ways. People...there is STILL A LOT OF WINTER LEFT! I have been saying this over and over as well and still believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Queen Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Can someone please tell me what time the euro weeklies come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I have been saying this over and over as well and still believe it. I agree whole heartly.Last winter was pretty much over when Feb got here.This year our winter will start in Feb from what i've been reading.I'm ready for another dose of winter 2009/2010 but with a little more snow. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I agree whole heartly.Last winter was pretty much over when Feb got here.This year our winter will start in Feb from what i've been reading.I'm ready for another dose of winter 2009/2010 but with a little more snow. . look at feb 26-27, 2004 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I agree whole heartly.Last winter was pretty much over when Feb got here.This year our winter will start in Feb from what i've been reading.I'm ready for another dose of winter 2009/2010 but with a little more snow. . Just curious what have you been reading that states winter will start in February this year? We keep talking about the models and how they are not to be trusted after five days. There is a chance things could turn around but we have a long way to go to get there. Not trying to be a Debbie downer just tempering expectations here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 We mowed a property last week and I had a customer call today and asked us to mow his tomorrow. Never had that in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Can someone please tell me what time the euro weeklies come out? They are out and UGLY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 New GFS run, new result, it has a fantasy clipper at hour 384! Seriously though the big Central Pacific ridge is squashed by the end of the run, so the west coast trough is also gone, but still not strong -NAO signal yet. A big cutoff meanders across the southern states in the medium range with no cold air to incorporate into it. At the very end of the run, the West coast gets ridgy(new word?) and a trough is setup in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 They are out and UGLY They are? I heard tonight and no word on them in the Medium range discussion thread yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Queen Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 They are out and UGLY Thanks,...what do you mean by "ugly"? Can you elaborate? I was under the impression they were later this evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 They are? I heard tonight and no word on them in the Medium range discussion thread yet. On Accu they are out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Id take some strong clipper action with the right steering!! I'd be willing to bet the time frame of feb1-4 will look totally different on the models by next tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 On Accu they are out Well are you going to give us any details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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