Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion III

[tnweathernut]

pretty impressive cold damming in NC on Sunday, per the latest GFS. What looked like upper 60s to near 70 a few days ago here now looks like upper 30's most of the day. Likewise, DC and Md. region are probably in for some minor ice and snow this weekend.

It was on the models yesterday too, iirc. Seems to be getting stronger as we get closer. Thanks for the extended disco earlier this morning Robert. Will be interesting to see if we can continue taking steps closer to a true pattern change.

[LithiaWx]

12Z GFS is interesting. First off it shows a major storm, probably a blizzard somewhere in the Mid-west/Upper Mid West, near the end of the run. The GFS also shows a very big ridge in the Pacific for an extended period, but it appears it's just a bit too far off shore, dropping the west into the negative anomalies. If that ridge were East a bit more it could be a very good thing for us. Some high latitude blocking appears but it's placement is near Scandinavia and the north pole, but the true Greenland block looks missing. Looking forward to ensembles.

[FoothillsNC]

It was on the models yesterday too, iirc. Seems to be getting stronger as we get closer. Thanks for the extended disco earlier this morning Robert. Will be interesting to see if we can continue taking steps closer to a true pattern change.

GFS op. doesn't look good. It drops the trough out west again , and by day 15 or so it's finally to the point where a big trough covers the central and most of the states. If it's right with reloading the western trough, obviously thats a sign of delays of turning colder here, which we've seen countless times in Winter's past. I'd look at ensembles before taking it for certain yet, but the ridge is too far west to drop the trough in further east, which some of the ensembles do show that. It also cuts off a major cutoff next week, which may or may not happen and that can affect downstream. Overall, pretty discouraging run to see the op. delay the arrival of the cold, plus the ridging in central to east Canada didnt' show up nearly as much on this run. Could be a fluke though.

[packbacker]

12Z GFS is interesting. First off it shows a major storm, probably a blizzard somewhere in the Mid-west/Upper Mid West, near the end of the run. The GFS also shows a very big ridge in the Pacific for an extended period, but it appears it's just a bit too far off shore, dropping the west into the negative anomalies. If that ridge were East a bit more it could be a very good thing for us. Some high latitude blocking appears but it's placement is near Scandinavia and the north pole, but the true Greenland block looks missing. Looking forward to ensembles.

The western ridge being to far west is starting to concern me, seeing that show up now a couple of runs.

[rduwx]

GFS op. doesn't look good. It drops the trough out west again , and by day 15 or so it's finally to the point where a big trough covers the central and most of the states. If it's right with reloading the western trough, obviously thats a sign of delays of turning colder here, which we've seen countless times in Winter's past. I'd look at ensembles before taking it for certain yet, but the ridge is too far west to drop the trough in further east, which some of the ensembles do show that. It also cuts off a major cutoff next week, which may or may not happen and that can affect downstream. Overall, pretty discouraging run to see the op. delay the arrival of the cold, plus the ridging in central to east Canada didnt' show up nearly as much on this run. Could be a fluke though.

I agree Robert. After the 12z gfs run I said to myself "that sucked". I didn't want to post anything because I'm reaching my limits on negative posts...LOL. Like you said, maybe it's a fluke, only time will tell.

[tnweathernut]

Just when DT opens up the door with a very detailed optimistic post about potential cold in February the GFS says not so fast. Flip, Flop, Flip, Flop the models go. If I were a met this winter, i'd have lost all my hair by now.

[Mr Bob]

If I were a met this winter, i'd have lost all my hair by now.

I just don't agree with this statement...don't feel this way at all. But I guess it just depends on what you are looking for.

[Brick Tamland]

I don't know why anyone is optimistic about the rest of winter as far as snow goes. Anytime the models show something out past a week, it just takes it away the next run. It's been doing this all winter. The pattern is not going to change this winter. It'll be spring and we'll have to wait until then for a real change. Maybe next winter will be better.

[nchighcountrywx]

tnweathernut, on 19 January 2012 - 12:02 PM, said:

If I were a met this winter, i'd have lost all my hair by now.

I just don't agree with this statement...don't feel this way at all. But I guess it just depends on what you are looking for.

Yes it has actiually been a pretty easy winter to forecast for so far. The CDC CPC laid it all out on the table for us in plain English and graphics back in November and December. It has been right on their mark so far. Absolutely, it is not at all the type of winter I like. Thankfully we can get our periodic small upslope snow. We are all wanting a solid snow event though. Hopefully everything will align for one in mid February.

Correction: CPC not CDC.....typing on a Blackberry over lunch has its challenges.

[tnweathernut]

I just don't agree with this statement...don't feel this way at all. But I guess it just depends on what you are looking for.

It's been a relatively stable pattern when you look at our sensible weather (wet and warm, followed by brief cold and dry, averaging above to well above in temps).

But................ several reputable mets (i.e. JB, DT, etc.) have gone back and forth on the pattern and when it might change, only to get the same old same in the end. If you took the stance that it's warm and you are not blinking till you see hard evidence of a change then kudos, but several have not. I think it's b/c there is such a rush by some to be 1st with any changes, but this is JMO

[LithiaWx]

It's been a relatively stable pattern when you look at our sensible weather (wet and warm, followed by brief cold and dry, averaging above to well above in temps).

But................ several reputable mets (i.e. JB, DT, etc.) have gone back and forth on the pattern and when it might change, only to get the same old same in the end. If you took the stance that it's warm and you are not blinking till you see hard evidence of a change then kudos, but several have not. I think it's b/c there is such a rush by some to be 1st with any changes, but this is JMO

Bingo. The only thing that has thrown a kink or two have been smaller scale features. The big picture this winter has been pretty stable.

[Brick Tamland]

It's been a relatively stable pattern when you look at our sensible weather (wet and warm, followed by brief cold and dry, averaging above to well above in temps).

But................ several reputable mets (i.e. JB, DT, etc.) have gone back and forth on the pattern and when it might change, only to get the same old same in the end. If you took the stance that it's warm and you are not blinking till you see hard evidence of a change then kudos, but several have not. I think it's b/c there is such a rush by some to be 1st with any changes, but this is JMO

Well, if they say the pattern is calm and boring, who is going to care about finding out from them what's coming? They need to talk about snow, storms, etc. for the hits.

[packbacker]

I don't know why anyone is optimistic about the rest of winter as far as snow goes. Anytime the models show something out past a week, it just takes it away the next run. It's been doing this all winter. The pattern is not going to change this winter. It'll be spring and we'll have to wait until then for a real change. Maybe next winter will be better.

Well the 12z GFS ensembles don't look great in the LR, the pacific doesn't look great for us and the blocking doesn't look good. There is higher heights over AK so the PV is gone, which is great news. Let's just wait till we get to beginning of Feb and see how things look before abandoning all hope. If we get into Feb and things don't look good than I think things will look really bleak for us.

[Mr Bob]

It's been a relatively stable pattern when you look at our sensible weather (wet and warm, followed by brief cold and dry, averaging above to well above in temps).

But................ several reputable mets (i.e. JB, DT, etc.) have gone back and forth on the pattern and when it might change, only to get the same old same in the end. If you took the stance that it's warm and you are not blinking till you see hard evidence of a change then kudos, but several have not. I think it's b/c there is such a rush by some to be 1st with any changes, but this is JMO

This is an excellent synopsis of this winter.

[tnweathernut]

Well, if they say the pattern is calm and boring, who is going to care about finding out from them what's coming? They need to talk about snow, storms, etc. for the hits.

When dealing with the two that i specifically mentioned, this might be your best post ever.

[Cheeznado]

New Euro showing a few encouraging signs by 240- Block in eastern Canada weak but strengthening, signs of a 50/50 low developing. strong ridge and the PV in the EPAC progressing. Biggest bugaboo are the high heights over the SE, extrapolating this would mean a CAD and possible ice as opposed to snow. Not a fantastic run, but not horrible either. However, this is 240 hours we are talking about here, we need more consistency with this trend.

[tnweathernut]

In case anyone is wondering, the EURO looks pretty bad too, at least in the Pacific.

[tnweathernut]

New Euro showing a few encouraging signs by 240- Block in eastern Canada weak but strengthening, signs of a 50/50 low developing. strong ridge and the PV in the EPAC progressing. Biggest bugaboo are the high heights over the SE, extrapolating this would mean a CAD and possible ice as opposed to snow. Not a fantastic run, but not horrible either. However, this is 240 hours we are talking about here, we need more consistency with this trend.

Maybe delayed but not denied? Mid Feb ..............FTW. haha

[DixieBlizzard]

Just curious how this pattern will translate further down the road into spring and summer. La Nina springs can be quite severe with periods of very cool air. I have also noticed in the past that mild winters are followed by mild summers (it doesn't always work out this way, I know). That would not bother me one iota. Maybe Larry can weigh in on this.

PS: It has been adequately cold enough for a few days this month that had there been precipitation present, there would have been snow or ice. Even though it's not the case in the mountains of NC, it only takes one well-timed storm to get us close to average. I'll throw my towel in around some time in March.

[LithiaWx]

12ZGFS Ensembles are showing an extreme -PNA, alongside the OP. That ridging being too far west is looking more likely, it showed up on the Euro too, big ridge in the Pacific in the later frames. The Pacific side just does not look good for us right now or in the near future, but I'm an amateur what do I know.

[beanskip]

Yeah, the strikes against this run are that it's 240 hours AND, it's still not really there yet.

Time is becoming an issue.

It goes without saying, but simply having a good pattern is no guarantee of winter weather. If our window is only a few weeks long, the odds diminish.

New Euro showing a few encouraging signs by 240- Block in eastern Canada weak but strengthening, signs of a 50/50 low developing. strong ridge and the PV in the EPAC progressing. Biggest bugaboo are the high heights over the SE, extrapolating this would mean a CAD and possible ice as opposed to snow. Not a fantastic run, but not horrible either. However, this is 240 hours we are talking about here, we need more consistency with this trend.

[tnweathernut]

What the heck happened to our deep and progressive trough next week? Is the cutoff a more realistic option or a progressive trough?

[NGA WINTER]

So with latest runs pattern change diminishes?

[griteater]

Yep, C Pac ridge favors trough in the west and ridge in the east

This may go down as the worst model watching winter in the internet model watching era

[jmundie]

This place is depressing. I'll take the chance of some blocking over Greenland, and deal with the PNA as it comes. The trough in the pacific is clearly weakening throughout the run, and high pressure is trying to build in eastern canada and Greenland. I'm not sure I buy the cut off diving down into the sw right into what appears to be some decent heights up until 144 or so.

At this point, there's really no use in cliff diving. The midwest, nor new england have gotten much snow this year at all... we certainly shouldn't be expecting any if they can't get any.

Not to mention, some of you folks (I'm talking to you if you're south of tn/nc) should expect snowless winters. Its part of your climate.

Those of us in Nashville, somehow have avoided hitting our long term averages even in the last two years with all the blockbuster southern snow. And climowise- we should get it more often.

All that to say - the models have been back and forth even in the short term. Anyone trying to predict what happens after the system on Monday is foolish,since we've seen as many iterations of what can happen as there have been model runs. This whole diving a cut off into mexico (or in the case of the CMC, the pacific) is brand new. If there is going to be a pattern change, it will probably come without much notice, just like the past couple cold shots.

And one last thing, our high was supposed to be 53 in Nashville today. We're at 43 right now. No use treating every model run as if its gospel, especially this year.

[rduwx]

So with latest runs pattern change diminishes?

I don't really think any of us were confident in a pattern change. I think hopeful is more like it. The problem is one day the model runs will look good for a possible change at the the end of the run and the next day things have changed for the same time frame. I believe most of us are looking for trends at this point. Another words several runs w/ the same outcome and on different models. Today the 12z gfs did not look good at all in the long range but there was some hope on the 12z euro. Problem is we need to see several runs of the same thing since we're talking about 240 hours out or 10 days on the euro. If the euro continues to show some hope then it would be nice to see other globals showing the same thing.

[rduwx]

Yep, C Pac ridge favors trough in the west and ridge in the east

This may go down as the worst model watching winter in the internet model watching era

I agree. Even in some of the worst winters we atleast had hope and possible storms to track. This year there has been nothing!

[packbacker]

Maybe the Euro ensembles and weeklies will cheer people up. Think positive thoughts....

[Snowless in Carrollton]

This place is depressing. I'll take the chance of some blocking over Greenland, and deal with the PNA as it comes. The trough in the pacific is clearly weakening throughout the run, and high pressure is trying to build in eastern canada and Greenland. I'm not sure I buy the cut off diving down into the sw right into what appears to be some decent heights up until 144 or so.

At this point, there's really no use in cliff diving. The midwest, nor new england have gotten much snow this year at all... we certainly shouldn't be expecting any if they can't get any.

Not to mention, some of you folks (I'm talking to you if you're south of tn/nc) should expect snowless winters. Its part of your climate.

Those of us in Nashville, somehow have avoided hitting our long term averages even in the last two years with all the blockbuster southern snow. And climowise- we should get it more often.

All that to say - the models have been back and forth even in the short term. Anyone trying to predict what happens after the system on Monday is foolish,since we've seen as many iterations of what can happen as there have been model runs. This whole diving a cut off into mexico (or in the case of the CMC, the pacific) is brand new. If there is going to be a pattern change, it will probably come without much notice, just like the past couple cold shots.

And one last thing, our high was supposed to be 53 in Nashville today. We're at 43 right now. No use treating every model run as if its gospel, especially this year.

I disagree with the part where you say areas south of TN/NC should expect snowless winters. In my entire life, I've only seen 2 or 3 snowless winters. I know the Atlanta area usually gets at least a light dusting every winter. Even in one of the worst winters ever (98-99) there was snow in Atlanta.

[GreensboroWx]

Ok, people, its only Jan 19th. There's a LONG ways to go....the up and down emotions based on 1 model run, from some of you, are quite amusing

Honestly, looking much beyond 5 days and making a concrete statement is hopeless. Last week's runs were showing very warm temps for the SE in the long term and no relief to the PV south of Alaska. Now, its nearly a 180 and the warm temps have been squashed somewhat. Also, there are positive signs starting to show up. Trying to pinpoint the exact location of the Pacific trough or an eastern Canadian ridge long term is pointless. Look at the BIG picture and notice there are some changes trying to take shape. With the continued storminess and cutoffs there's no telling what can happen, but it could be quite exciting in Feb, IMHO.