FoothillsNC Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Apex of the Atlantic ridge is up over Iceland on Days 14 and 15 and there is no guarantee it is stable...There is no real +PNA on this run with the primary ridgining topping out in the Aleutians and the coldest of the air is on the other side of the hemisphere...Nothing ideal here but it is still just the end of Jan...there is time to develop into a cooler pattern. As others have said, it may be enough for a fringer or a CAD event last two thirds of Feb but not much before then, IMO. Sounds like the models look different beyond 10 days. the GFS ensembles look pretty good to me strong PNA, about as perfect as we can hope for starting at day 10 and continuing and getting better til day 16...with slight blockiness northeast of Hudson Bay. This could play out a lot of ways obviously. I think the GFS is onto something, since its been pretty adamant lately about the upcoming change, but we'll see. May not look quite like this, but you'd think at some point a ridge develops in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 That's an alternate view we don't like! Get him!!! Here's to hoping the models are wrong and it can really pump out a -NAO and big +PNA. You know, maybe its good the pattern doesn't look perfect 15 days out, maybe it will slowly come together the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I don't understand how people can say maybe the last half of february it will change or this or that....hell the models can't hold an idea longer than 2 days. What the other day models were showing a warm pattern and now that's gone. Just funny to me, some people sound so sure that their "opinion " is 100 percent the truth and accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I don't understand how people can say maybe the last half of february it will change or this or that....hell the models can't hold an idea longer than 2 days. What the other day models were showing a warm pattern and now that's gone. Just funny to me, some people sound so sure that their "opinion " is 100 percent the truth and accurate. Where are you seeing that? Show the quote you are referring to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Im sorry I was not responding to a quote ......scratch what I said above let me start over. How is one suppose to form an opinion about something that literally changes daily. One day the vortex is flexing and its warm in the LR....the ensembles back it up and so on. Then says later its the complete opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 People always say look for trends well how can you find a trend off something that has no consistancy and changes every 3-5 days. More power to those that can. Im not trying to argue just trying to pick the brains of those that know so much more than I do and learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 People always say look for trends well how can you find a trend off something that has no consistancy and changes every 3-5 days. More power to those that can. Im not trying to argue just trying to pick the brains of those that know so much more than I do and learn. Bingo. The models have had such a difficult time this winter that I don't think it's possible to look for any sort of trends beyond short range stuff. Our pattern this winter has been above normal with brief below normal swings and so far nothing that you can bank on is showing otherwise that this will not continue. Even though the major torch the models were showing several days ago does not appear that it will happen, the outcome will still likely be much above normal. Just not as extreme as was projected a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 They're flipping and flopping just like the models... Im going to rename the GFS, Mitt. LoL, sorry couldn't resist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 People always say look for trends well how can you find a trend off something that has no consistancy and changes every 3-5 days. More power to those that can. Im not trying to argue just trying to pick the brains of those that know so much more than I do and learn. Good restart Well, done. Well, some folks I know of have studied old maps and weather patterns from as many winters back as they can find, and the same for individual storms, and they make observations based on patterns from these analogs mixed with observation, and general understanding of what various maps are suggesting. It is as much art as science when the models are not much help, and I'm sure no one is 100% sure, lol. If they are, they are sure to be a pincushion at some point, and probably in the near future What I've done personally is take my considerable experience with winter weather in Ga. and after being on the board for a year, thrown it all out. I know nothing, or next to nothing, lol. I found following posters who actually know something led me to see the ones who continually seem to realize their ideas and predictions, and I give them more credence than others. But I hold no one to anything. It is the weather, and it changes. That's what weather does, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Per the 0z gfs Sunday looks to be a miserable day. Right now it looks like a cold misty rain for a lot of people in NC. There is a cad signature showing up. I haven't checked bufkit but just from the looks of it, it looks to be a cold mist. The kind of day to stay inside and watch football by the fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Good restart Well, done. Well, some folks I know of have studied old maps and weather patterns from as many winters back as they can find, and the same for individual storms, and they make observations based on patterns from these analogs mixed with observation, and general understanding of what various maps are suggesting. It is as much art as science when the models are not much help, and I'm sure no one is 100% sure, lol. If they are, they are sure to be a pincushion at some point, and probably in the near future What I've done personally is take my considerable experience with winter weather in Ga. and after being on the board for a year, thrown it all out. I know nothing, or next to nothing, lol. I found following posters who actually know something led me to see the ones who continually seem to realize their ideas and predictions, and I give them more credence than others. But I hold no one to anything. It is the weather, and it changes. That's what weather does, lol. T Excellent post Tony! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Well on tonights episode of model madness the gfs wants to keep the cold in the west and the east warm through the LR. Of course I would take this w/ a grain of salt considering the models haven't been worth anything past 5 days. My bet is the ensembles w/ show something completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Tune into tomorrow, same time same channel, to see what shenanigans the GFS is up to! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Well, Goofy is trying. It wants to throw up a patented fantasy storm bad, but it can't quite get the location of the lows and the cold air right I'm am really feeling it though. I really think the gfs will throw up a perfect super long range fantasy storm before the season is over....and it won't verify....just like the old days. We can't give up...too much time left! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Well, Goofy is trying. It wants to throw up a patented fantasy storm bad, but it can't quite get the location of the lows and the cold air right I'm am really feeling it though. I really think the gfs will throw up a perfect super long range fantasy storm before the season is over....and it won't verify....just like the old days. We can't give up...too much time left! T Like the Storm of The Century. 5 days warning was all they got and most people (as well as meteorologist) still didn't believe it was going to happen. I'm with you Tony, nothing scientific, but I have very good feelings about February/March this year. Call it intuition or old age, but I think we'll have a couple of doozies before it's all over with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looking at the first couple days on this run in Feb there looks to be some very cold air diving down from Canada. Something the models have seem to be hinting at from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 We need to bank on the 6z GFS at the end of it's run. If that came true we would be sure to get something. It has -20 850 temps heading into KY. Just looked at the NAO on the 6z it goes negative then goes back to positive then near neutral at the end of the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 How many runs in a row has the hour 360-384 GFS looked good? #foolsgold We need to bank on the 6z GFS at the end of it's run. If that came true we would be sure to get something. It has -20 850 temps heading into KY. Just looked at the NAO on the 6z it goes negative then goes back to positive then near neutral at the end of the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Models remain consistent for a colder patern change early Feb. We'll see what this evening's Euro weeklies say. Keeping hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I like where the pattern is going, and looking at the overnight stuff, we seem to be on schedule. The pattern begins changing actually in about 6 days when the splitting of the flow occurs in southern Canada, that will lead to some ridging in eastern or northeast Canada. Meanwhile the Alaska vortex is strong as ever then, with a strong ridge building underneath it off California, but around time, the ridge in western Alaska , combined with rising heights in eastern Canada (a first this season), will thrust the AK vortex to slide southeast into Central or western Canada, setting all this in motion. We have good ensemble agreement here, which is a rarity this season. So by day 10, we have a +PNA and neutral to maybe -NAO. All this will begin happening rapidly around days 7 through 10 and the models and ensembles clearly show a really typical 500 flow for late January, but with colder than normal air in most of Canada. The only question really is how much of a +PNA can we get out west, and that remains to be seen, but if you go past 10 days, the models build it and that forces the really cold air to come down into the US, which would be the first really widespread cold outbreak. We've had small, north-south oriented ones that slide out quickly, but the pattern coming up favors long lasting, widespread ones just after day 10, probably close to 12 days from now, which does include below normal air coming into the Southeast. Before then though, the East, esp. Southeast, could get really warm, atleast aloft. Clouds and rain (and damming in the Carolinas) seem to be tempering our high temps. There's a lot that can go wrong: the models have built eastern Canada/Greenland heights a couple times I think which failed to materialize. Same thing for the western ridge. But both times we never saw good long range ensemble support for it, this time we do. Its also possible the western ridge is so far west that all the cold once again dumps into the western half of the country, leaving the southeast under a flat ridge (warmth) to start February. Right now, I'm 60/40 on the upcoming change toward a climo start to February, a little reserved but more optimistic than anything recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Like the Storm of The Century. 5 days warning was all they got and most people (as well as meteorologist) still didn't believe it was going to happen. I'm with you Tony, nothing scientific, but I have very good feelings about February/March this year. Call it intuition or old age, but I think we'll have a couple of doozies before it's all over with. Unfortunately my confidence is not as high as it was. After looking at all the historical data that donsutherland and Wes (usedtobe) continue to throw out, my confidence has taken a hit. I'm not saying it won't happen, just saying my confidence is low. I guess I'm just a glass half empty kind of guy right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Unfortunately my confidence is not as high as it was. After looking at all the historical data that donsutherland and Wes (usedtobe) continue to throw out, my confidence has taken a hit. I'm not saying it won't happen, just saying my confidence is low. I guess I'm just a glass half empty kind of guy right now... Give it another 7-10 days and you'll be a glass half full again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I like where the pattern is going, and looking at the overnight stuff, we seem to be on schedule. The pattern begins changing actually in about 6 days when the splitting of the flow occurs in southern Canada, that will lead to some ridging in eastern or northeast Canada. Meanwhile the Alaska vortex is strong as ever then, with a strong ridge building underneath it off California, but around time, the ridge in western Alaska , combined with rising heights in eastern Canada (a first this season), will thrust the AK vortex to slide southeast into Central or western Canada, setting all this in motion. We have good ensemble agreement here, which is a rarity this season. So by day 10, we have a +PNA and neutral to maybe -NAO. All this will begin happening rapidly around days 7 through 10 and the models and ensembles clearly show a really typical 500 flow for late January, but with colder than normal air in most of Canada. The only question really is how much of a +PNA can we get out west, and that remains to be seen, but if you go past 10 days, the models build it and that forces the really cold air to come down into the US, which would be the first really widespread cold outbreak. We've had small, north-south oriented ones that slide out quickly, but the pattern coming up favors long lasting, widespread ones just after day 10, probably close to 12 days from now, which does include below normal air coming into the Southeast. Before then though, the East, esp. Southeast, could get really warm, atleast aloft. Clouds and rain (and damming in the Carolinas) seem to be tempering our high temps. There's a lot that can go wrong: the models have built eastern Canada/Greenland heights a couple times I think which failed to materialize. Same thing for the western ridge. But both times we never saw good long range ensemble support for it, this time we do. Its also possible the western ridge is so far west that all the cold once again dumps into the western half of the country, leaving the southeast under a flat ridge (warmth) to start February. Right now, I'm 60/40 on the upcoming change toward a climo start to February, a little reserved but more optimistic than anything recently. Great write up this morning, And I think you have the right idea about the pattern. The ensemble agreement I think gives us some realistic hope this time.... As Larry says, Keep hope alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 DT is a bit more optimistic in his post from last night. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Not trying to be a downer but the latest NAO index not as promising as yesterday. But I'm sure tomorrow will show something different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It's just that we have heard this before at the beginning of the month. The models are hinting at a change, the pattern change is coming, the change is on schedule. It was supposed to happen this week as a matter of fact. I think I am just going to actually see it before I believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Nice writeup this morning Robert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It's just that we have heard this before at the beginning of the month. The models are hinting at a change, the pattern change is coming, the change is on schedule. It was supposed to happen this week as a matter of fact. I think I am just going to actually see it before I believe it. I hear you Brick.... Nothing good may come out of this in the end, but it is something to hang your hopes on realistically. In the past I don't feel there was anything realistic to hold on to, this time is/feels different. Glimmers of hope on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It's just that we have heard this before at the beginning of the month. The models are hinting at a change, the pattern change is coming, the change is on schedule. It was supposed to happen this week as a matter of fact. I think I am just going to actually see it before I believe it. I didn't read a pattern change with a +PNA, -NAO, -AO with ensembles supporting and Op runs going ballistic at the beginning of the month. There are signs that are more believable this time around than any pattern change we have discussed so far this winter IMO. Basically all we were hoping for last month was to get some cold air in the south, as it was completely absent. We're past that now and we're hoping for that this time, but it encompasses much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 pretty impressive cold damming in NC on Sunday, per the latest GFS. What looked like upper 60s to near 70 a few days ago here now looks like upper 30's most of the day. Likewise, DC and Md. region are probably in for some minor ice and snow this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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