NC_hailstorm Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Very,very close to a technical SSW in about 5-7 days on today's forecast,lets see if they hold though these forecasts can vary considerably from day to day. If the PV's end up in Alaska or Greenland though it may not matter so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 At hour 192 the Euro has a SE low in Southern AL. he only problem is there is not any really cold air anywhere in the CONUS at the time. I don't have access to two meter temps but 850's even on the backside of the low are very marginal. That looks like another west of the apps rains with a "dry" front crossing central NC. That has been the stormtrack... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 That looks like another west of the apps rains with a "dry" front crossing central NC. That has been the stormtrack... Yep just more of the same. Hey it does give your back yard some descent rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Both models now have changed pretty strongly against what they had been advertising, the key is the sudden splitting of the flow in southern Canada that opens up around day 7, which forces storm tracks south, whereas before they depicted major east coast ridging. Take it with a grain of salt since its a sudden switch. The ECMWF ends up with building eastern Canada or north-central Canada ridging by day 9 and 10, so is a rather odd look overall, and would probably be a supressed flow. So far it would favor a northern half to be cold, southern half warm, but we keep seeing how the warmth gets delayed. However, most will still be above normal in temps, but some areas of northern NC for example may not, due to so many CAD episodes that will probably occur in the next 10 days. There are a lot of them, so the upper levels and 850's are very misleading. The bottom line is its still a very tough time to make any solid calls out beyond 5 days. If we can get strong +pna ridging out west to go with this 10 day map, we'd have a Winter storm setup to start to round out Jan/early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Well, the 12z GFS and Euro have officially changed and cancelled the big end of January warmup. Instead, Euro puts a trough in the east. Incredibly frustrating watching the models go from a ridge to a trough even in the medium range. I had my shorts and t-shirts ready to go. The models have been abnormally terrible in the medium and long range this winter almost to the point of being useless. What gives? Anyone? Where's my yearly fantasy 384HR blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Both models now have changed pretty strongly against what they had been advertising, the key is the sudden splitting of the flow in southern Canada that opens up around day 7, which forces storm tracks south, whereas before they depicted major east coast ridging. Take it with a grain of salt since its a sudden switch. The ECMWF ends up with building eastern Canada or north-central Canada ridging by day 9 and 10, so is a rather odd look overall, and would probably be a supressed flow. So far it would favor a northern half to be cold, southern half warm, but we keep seeing how the warmth gets delayed. However, most will still be above normal in temps, but some areas of northern NC for example may not, due to so many CAD episodes that will probably occur in the next 10 days. There are a lot of them, so the upper levels and 850's are very misleading. The bottom line is its still a very tough time to make any solid calls out beyond 5 days. If we can get strong +pna ridging out west to go with this 10 day map, we'd have a Winter storm setup to start to round out Jan/early Feb. I'll take your word for it Robert but my concerns are; That sure looks like a PV over Greenland where we ideally would want to see higher pressures and blocking. Not to mention the coldest air in the N. Hemisphere is on the other side of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It's only 10 days away...again. Brick, For the last few days, I've been looking at early Feb. for the best chance at a favorable pattern change. I'm sticking with that for now. There's been no slippage as far as I'm concerned...yet. My prescription for you is that you take a break from here, get plenty of rest while you have the chance over the next 10 days or so, drink plenty of Red Bull on 1/31, and come back here ready to go on 2/1. I have a feeling you will be a happy camper then. Regardless of what ends up happening, I'm 100% accepting of whatever occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Brick, For the last few days, I've been looking at early Feb. for the best chance at a favorable pattern change. I'm sticking with that for now. There's been no slippage as far as I'm concerned...yet. My prescription for you is that you take a break from here, get plenty of rest while you have the chance over the next 10 days or so, drink plenty of Red Bull on 1/31, and come back here ready to go on 2/1. I have a feeling you wil be a happy camper then. Regardless of what ends up happening, I'm 100% accepting of whatever occurs. This is CLASSIC Larry!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'll take your word for it Robert but my concerns are; That sure looks like a PV over Greenland where we ideally would want to see higher pressures and blocking. Not to mention the coldest air in the N. Hemisphere is on the other side of the globe. Its an odd flow being portrayed on the models, lots of short wavelength troughs and ridges. Remember the hallmark going into the Winter was the very active cutoffs roaming the globe. Thats still causing problems for the modeling in my opinion. I don't see an end to it either, just when you think the models are going to stabilize the flow and settle into a single stream, it doesn't really happen, and a huge gap or split in the flow opens up. It's pointless to look beyond 5 days now, I'm certain of that , since the last 2 days proves that the exact 180 degree flip can occur. The only thing I'm sold on nowadays is the semi-permanent home to that Alaskan vortex. I wouldn't rule out getting cold air down into TN and NC especially during the next couple of weeks for something to go with a system, that models won't show until 72 hours out, kinda like the event that occured yesterday morning in western NC and VA (sleet) and the one coming up this weekend (looks suddenly stronger/wetter) and now the one showing up early next week on both models (we should have been under a 576 to 582 ridge at that time)...Yep, no doubt about it, the models are virtually useless, good or bad, for making a long range call now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Brick, For the last few days, I've been looking at early Feb. for the best chance at a favorable pattern change. I'm sticking with that for now. There's been no slippage as far as I'm concerned...yet. My prescription for you is that you take a break from here, get plenty of rest while you have the chance over the next 10 days or so, drink plenty of Red Bull on 1/31, and come back here ready to go on 2/1. I have a feeling you wil be a happy camper then. Regardless of what ends up happening, I'm 100% accepting of whatever occurs. I'm with you and Robert on this Larry, and I have been for the last week or two. The signs haven't been too encouraging up to now but the little pieces we need are beginning to show up more and more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 If it is pointless to look beyond 5 days, then why are we saying February could be better for winter around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 If it is pointless to look beyond 5 days, then why are we saying February could be better for winter around here? You're misunderstanding them, they are saying it's pointless for YOU to look at the models past ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 You're misunderstanding them, they are saying it's pointless for YOU to look at the models past ten days. LOL! He shoots, he scores...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yep just more of the same. Hey it does give your back yard some descent rain though. I've see that story before in fact I'm currently watching the whole series on Netflix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Its an odd flow being portrayed on the models, lots of short wavelength troughs and ridges. Remember the hallmark going into the Winter was the very active cutoffs roaming the globe. Thats still causing problems for the modeling in my opinion. I don't see an end to it either, just when you think the models are going to stabilize the flow and settle into a single stream, it doesn't really happen, and a huge gap or split in the flow opens up. It's pointless to look beyond 5 days now, I'm certain of that , since the last 2 days proves that the exact 180 degree flip can occur. The only thing I'm sold on nowadays is the semi-permanent home to that Alaskan vortex. I wouldn't rule out getting cold air down into TN and NC especially during the next couple of weeks for something to go with a system, that models won't show until 72 hours out, kinda like the event that occured yesterday morning in western NC and VA (sleet) and the one coming up this weekend (looks suddenly stronger/wetter) and now the one showing up early next week on both models (we should have been under a 576 to 582 ridge at that time)...Yep, no doubt about it, the models are virtually useless, good or bad, for making a long range call now. What do you make of severe weather chances in the southeast next Tuesday(ish)?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Wow the models cannot make up there mind. They want use to back then flood then get colder. Who noes what is going to happen the next 5-10 days. All i no is that winter is still very much alive. Had a low this morning of 24 with flurries. We may not have a long sustained cold period but just one good deep snow would be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 At hour 192 the Euro has a SE low in Southern AL. he only problem is there is not any really cold air anywhere in the CONUS at the time. I don't have access to two meter temps but 850's even on the backside of the low are very marginal. Get the low in the gulf, and give me marginal temps and I'll go with that! That's usually all I get anyway I'm fine with that...I'm so used to that! 37 and heavy rain, 33 and heavy rain, 31 and zrain, 30 and sleet....thay are all part of the same weather sprout We just have to wait and see what grows, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 What do you make of severe weather chances in the southeast next Tuesday(ish)?? The runs are beginning to mingle in my mind now, but both models had a pretty sharp trough about that time. It depends on the Big High in Canada and how that pushes the New England or eastern Canada trough, so its up in the air, but generally I think there's a good chance of it, and to me it almost appears one system will turn neg. tilt in the Southeast or Tenn valley, not sure if that was the Monday one or the one after. All these systems seem to have the ability to generate severe or atleast potential such that watch boxes are eventually needed. I don't see why it wouldn't continue, it's like March but only in January. If there's no real change in February, then severe is a given that month in the southern Plains to Southeast. Hopefully the nina will be winding down soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I wonder if those who went cold, then scrapped that and went warm for February are a little worried about what the latest ensembles are showing? I am liking the February possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I wonder if those who went cold, then scrapped that and went warm for February are a little worried about what the latest ensembles are showing? I am liking the February possibilities. They're flipping and flopping just like the models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 They're flipping and flopping just like the models... It would be "classic" if DT busts after basically throwing his hands up and giving up on winter a few days ago when the famed Euro was showing the mega death heat ridge. He is eerily quiet in the last day or two. Would love to be a fly on the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 EURO ensembles to day ten look pretty meh to me, interested to see what a met thinks about day 10 and beyond for the ones who have access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 EURO ensembles to day ten look pretty meh to me, interested to see what a met thinks about day 10 and beyond for the ones who have access. I'm not a met., but do have access fwiw. Things are going according to plan. Day 15 (2/2) shows a strong -NAO as well as a bit of a +PNA and a chilly W Europe and E. Asia. AK has no cold anom.'s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I like your avatar Larry! Thanks, this insures I'll remain sane this winter regardless of what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm not a met., but do have access fwiw. Things are going according to plan. Day 15 (2/2) shows a strong -NAO as well as a bit of a +PNA and a chilly W Europe and E. Asia. AK has no cold anom.'s Nice, thank you for the insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Thanks, this insures I'll remain sane this winter regardless of what happens. And Larry's owns it, lol! Now I can't so easily tease you about the ice cream. Oh, I'll find something else eventually Never fear! Glad your finding some hope, Dr. Larry!! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 here are some 6 to 10 day averages, keep in mind the pattern is undergoing a change during this time frame. Most models decided now they want to split the flow in southern Canada, and build increasing heights, and hence, warmer temps in central to east/NE Canada, so we'll see if there is going to be a high cutting off there sometime. Its' a little odd to do so there , but could evolve more into the climo spot of Greenland or Baffin Island. Either of those would eventually lead to below normal temps in the Southeast, most likely.But we're having odd outcomes, so best bet is to expect anything. Similar to the warmth that now looks more tamed, and the models are in the midst of some change atleast, who knows what kind of pattern could evolve good or bad from this. My first instinct is a likely supressed flow, but how much cold air will we have to work with? A lot will depend on ridging out west and where the Alaska vortex goes, which can't be answered yet. If heights build strong enough in east Canada,a rex block could form, meaning a cutoff low somewhere down south. So be on the lookout for a very changeable flow in the modeling , which is no surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Regarding the severe threat, the models have flip-flopped so many times, I don't know what to think. Anyone a little more knowledgeable have an opinion on how severe this potential event could be (If there even is a chance for one at this point)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 EURO ensembles to day ten look pretty meh to me, interested to see what a met thinks about day 10 and beyond for the ones who have access. Apex of the Atlantic ridge is up over Iceland on Days 14 and 15 and there is no guarantee it is stable...There is no real +PNA on this run with the primary ridgining topping out in the Aleutians and the coldest of the air is on the other side of the hemisphere...Nothing ideal here but it is still just the end of Jan...there is time to develop into a cooler pattern. As others have said, it may be enough for a fringer or a CAD event last two thirds of Feb but not much before then, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Apex of the Atlantic ridge is up over Iceland on Days 14 and 15 and there is no guarantee it is stable...There is no real +PNA on this run with the primary ridgining topping out in the Aleutians and the coldest of the air is on the other side of the hemisphere...Nothing ideal here but it is still just the end of Jan...there is time to develop into a cooler pattern. As others have said, it may be enough for a fringer or a CAD event last two thirds of Feb but not much before then, IMO. That's an alternate view we don't like! Get him!!! Here's to hoping the models are wrong and it can really pump out a -NAO and big +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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