nchighcountrywx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 A review of updated data at work this morning still does not instill confidence that February will produce anything of significance for solid winter weather outside of small glancing blows of cold and light upslope in the mountains in NC. This winter will likely go in the history books as one of the warmest in many many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Folks, I continue to like what I'm seeing out about two weeks. The latest GFS ensemble mean (6z) has most of the ducks where you'd want them by late in week #2 suggesting a -NAO, -AO, and +PNA. In addition, the 0Z Euro ensemble mean has virtually a 180 degree reversal on the 360 hour map vs. the 6 hour map with strong warm anom's over Greenland to NE Canada and into the N. Atlantic as well as near and just offshore the W US and cold anomalies over W. Europe and E. Asia. There are slight cold anom.'s over far NW Canada and into AK but they are then diminishing. Keeping hope very much alive for a rockin' Feb. in the SE US although accepting whatever actually happens. I agree Larry. The Gulf of Ak. vortex begins weakening and maybe retrograding around day 9 on both models, and a ridge develops out west in the Eastern Pacific atleast. But it may develop similar to 6z GFS which would allow the trough to form in the Rockies or western half of the country, but it looks like the warm anomalies are beginning to show up in Eastern Canada. Atleast we're seeing the signs of another pattern change, one that gets rid of the GoA. vortex and builds a +PNA type of pattern. There's no guarantees on what happens by week 2 throuh 4 yet but warm eastern Canada usually means colder anomalies in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I was about to step away from the boards for a couple of days (still might), and then the optimism from Larry and Robert keep me intrigued. I know the other forums are talking about nothing really changing from our current state and even if/when it does there is no cold air is left on our side of the globe at that time, blah blah blah. I sometimes wonder if people realize it doesn't have to be 10 degrees to snow? I am ok with cold "enough" air combining with moisture to give us a storm and I am still hoping February provides us that opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I can tell by the lack of posts that nothing has really changed. Turn out the lights. There's not going to be any change and there will be no snow around here this winter. Spring is going to come early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I was about to step away from the boards for a couple of days (still might), and then the optimism from Larry and Robert keep me intrigued. I know the other forums are talking about nothing really changing from our current state and even if/when it does there is no cold air is left on our side of the globe at that time, blah blah blah. I sometimes wonder if people realize it doesn't have to be 10 degrees to snow? I am ok with cold "enough" air combining with moisture to give us a storm and I am still hoping February provides us that opportunity. I think we have time to step away because what the models predict in 14 days will likely be wrong as far as the 850 temps and precip goes. i will check back daily to make sure that the pattern change is still in order though and next week really start watching if it still is on. thanks Robert and Larry for the insight, hopefully it continues to look like a change is coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 yep have seen it snow hard at 35. doesn't have to be that cold to snow. still two months of winter left and have seen great snow falls in april. i say this winter comes late and we're be wandering where spring is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I can tell by the lack of posts that nothing has really changed. Turn out the lights. There's not going to be any change and there will be no snow around here this winter. Spring is going to come early. I agree Larry. The Gulf of Ak. vortex begins weakening and maybe retrograding around day 9 on both models, and a ridge develops out west in the Eastern Pacific atleast. But it may develop similar to 6z GFS which would allow the trough to form in the Rockies or western half of the country, but it looks like the warm anomalies are beginning to show up in Eastern Canada. Atleast we're seeing the signs of another pattern change, one that gets rid of the GoA. vortex and builds a +PNA type of pattern. There's no guarantees on what happens by week 2 throuh 4 yet but warm eastern Canada usually means colder anomalies in the SE. A review of updated data at work this morning still does not instill confidence that February will produce anything of significance for solid winter weather outside of small glancing blows of cold and light upslope in the mountains in NC. This winter will likely go in the history books as one of the warmest in many many years. Folks, I continue to like what I'm seeing out about two weeks. The latest GFS ensemble mean (6z) has most of the ducks where you'd want them by late in week #2 suggesting a -NAO, -AO, and +PNA. In addition, the 0Z Euro ensemble mean has virtually a 180 degree reversal on the 360 hour map vs. the 6 hour map with strong warm anom's over Greenland to NE Canada and into the N. Atlantic as well as near and just offshore the W US and cold anomalies over W. Europe and E. Asia. There are slight cold anom.'s over far NW Canada and into AK but they are then diminishing. Keeping hope very much alive for a rockin' Feb. in the SE US although accepting whatever actually happens. I find myself in between all of these opinions and just have no clue what is headed our way. But with the way winter has been so far, the cold and snow is going to have to slap me in the face for me to buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 A review of updated data at work this morning still does not instill confidence that February will produce anything of significance for solid winter weather outside of small glancing blows of cold and light upslope in the mountains in NC. This winter will likely go in the history books as one of the warmest in many many years. Could you give us some more insight? Interested in why you think Feb. will bring nothing to be hopeful about. Especially considering the Euro ENS, Weeklies, GFS and GFS ENS. Not saying you're wrong but it just seems like from all the model guidance we're about to turn a corner...and in February even if we are seasonal for NC that still gives us plenty of chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Could you give us some more insight? Interested in why you think Feb. will bring nothing to be hopeful about. Especially considering the Euro ENS, Weeklies, GFS and GFS ENS. Not saying you're wrong but it just seems like from all the model guidance we're about to turn a corner...and in February even if we are seasonal for NC that still gives us plenty of chances. He already cancelled winter for the Ski resorts a couple weeks ago. Its' snowed 3 times since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I can tell by the lack of posts that nothing has really changed. Turn out the lights. There's not going to be any change and there will be no snow around here this winter. Spring is going to come early. Not the case, it may turn out that way, but nobody knows. I would guess we would have a better clue in about 7 days. All the changes occur between hours 240-360+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It is interesting and nice to see things turning around for the NE, thatch have several opportunities coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Not the case, it may turn out that way, but nobody knows. I would guess we would have a better clue in about 7 days. All the changes occur between hours 240-360+. That has me most concerned about potential change. It's so far out we could be getting a big fake out right now. Bring it to about 180 and my confidence will go way up if all the models stay on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 if the GFS ensembles keep up with the building heights in the area South of Greenland, and retrograding the Ak. vortex, its probably legit. Just like when it began to show the block developing, so it's not in the operational ECMWF time frame yet (maybe the weeklies though). The 00z and 06 z continued to raise the heights south of Greenland and off the Northeast coast, only time will tell if it continues to do this, but its been doing it a while now. The 6z op. looked like it dumped all the cold out west late, warming us up, but that doesn't jive with the ensembles at all, where they had a western ridge, eastern trough to start February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 He already cancelled winter for the Ski resorts a couple weeks ago. Its' snowed 3 times since. Guess that's why he clarified with the upslope comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 there are wholesale changes going on to the flow in todays GFS, beginning early. At 144 another front comes through but at 168 to 180 the flow begins splitting abruptly in southern Canada, indicative of some kind of building ridging in central or east Canada and already a close call for snow in the Apps by 180 with a southern stream storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Could you give us some more insight? Interested in why you think Feb. will bring nothing to be hopeful about. Especially considering the Euro ENS, Weeklies, GFS and GFS ENS. Not saying you're wrong but it just seems like from all the model guidance we're about to turn a corner...and in February even if we are seasonal for NC that still gives us plenty of chances. A HUGE ++1 I could not have worded this any better Jonathan. It is WAY to early to "cancel" winter or "cliff dive". LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The net effect is this model really cancelled the warm up we thought would be occurring next week, and instead puts a trough in the East. It does reload the western trough after 10 days and warms us up then with a major easter Ridge. It also develops a weak block north of Hudsons Bay, so the models are seeing a change going on in Canada or Greenland somewhere, but in the end the effect may not be good for us. Its too early to tell since the op. run keeps changing lately, but we'll see how the ensembles look later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Wow look at that cold air at 384 pushing into the heartland of the country. At 384 lots of states in the Central US are in -20's for 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I was about to step away from the boards for a couple of days (still might), and then the optimism from Larry and Robert keep me intrigued. I know the other forums are talking about nothing really changing from our current state and even if/when it does there is no cold air is left on our side of the globe at that time, blah blah blah. I sometimes wonder if people realize it doesn't have to be 10 degrees to snow? I am ok with cold "enough" air combining with moisture to give us a storm and I am still hoping February provides us that opportunity. Yeah, that always tickles me. In Ga. it seems we have to warm up in order to get snow Usually it is around 29/30. So it just needs to be cold enough to beat the waa, and best if the cold continues to filter in, as the waa builds. Larry and Robert are most always encouraging, but lately Larry seems to overly acquiescent to the possible vicissitudes of weather. Over indulgence in ice cream, I'm afraid. I feel he needs the eye of the tiger if we are to get some good storms in Feb. Not that I'm putting any pressure on Robert and him. It is just that the zoftig fraulein hasn't even gotten to burble a note yet, even in warm up, and she and Larry seem inextricably connected somehow, lol..... and my guess would be she isn't a practitioner of Larry's Ice Cream Zen. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 there are wholesale changes going on to the flow in todays GFS, beginning early. At 144 another front comes through but at 168 to 180 the flow begins splitting abruptly in southern Canada, indicative of some kind of building ridging in central or east Canada and already a close call for snow in the Apps by 180 with a southern stream storm. Man, that look at 180 just screams for some strong highs up above to bring me my sleet storm T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Man, that look at 180 just screams for some strong highs up above to bring me my sleet storm T We'll see what the good DOC has to say...for some reason I'm betting it will be NO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yeah, that always tickles me. In Ga. it seems we have to warm up in order to get snow Usually it is around 29/30. So it just needs to be cold enough to beat the waa, and best if the cold continues to filter in, as the waa builds. Larry and Robert are most always encouraging, but lately Larry seems to overly acquiescent to the possible vicissitudes of weather. Over indulgence in ice cream, I'm afraid. I feel he needs the eye of the tiger if we are to get some good storms in Feb. Not that I'm putting any pressure on Robert and him. It is just that the zoftig fraulein hasn't even gotten to burble a note yet, even in warm up, and she and Larry seem inextricably connected somehow, lol..... and my guess would be she isn't a practitioner of Larry's Ice Cream Zen. T Yeah, but Tony, look at all of the rain coming our way in the next 2 weeks! Who cares about snow. I'm thrilled to see the light blue tones right over north-central GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 We'll see what the good DOC has to say...for some reason I'm betting it will be NO! The 0z run of Dr. No had just a frontal passage at the same hour. Let's hope that it shows some semblance of a gulf low forming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yeah, but Tony, look at all of the rain coming our way in the next 2 weeks! Who cares about snow. I'm thrilled to see the light blue tones right over north-central GA. Oh, yeah, Kyle, I'm with you buddy. But if Burgers wrong about the doc, think of all the sleet and snow we'll be cavorting it, lol. All we need is some well placed strong highs, with that southern storm dropping the goodness right on top of you and me. Shoot we'd be making Joe mad T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It will be interesting to see if the ecm pulls a big split in the flow like the GFS is doing, starting around 168. The ensembles should be out soon, hopefully they keep the western PNA ridge later on and a deep trough in the country. Today's run had a classic arctic outbreak look to it with cross polar flow, ridging north of hudson bay and a wide open Canada with -45 degree surface cold about to enter the nation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Not the case, it may turn out that way, but nobody knows. I would guess we would have a better clue in about 7 days. All the changes occur between hours 240-360+. It's only 10 days away...again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It's only 10 days away...again. Well the ensembles were kind of...meh....just have to wait and hope Feb turns around, might not happen this year. No telling, we could have a multi-year snow drought for RDU starting this year like the 90's or mid 2000's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 looks like both models have totally killed the southeast warmup. There are a couple more deep troughs to move through in the next 7 days. Certainly nothing like the major ridge they all had over us in that time frame. I recall a 582 ridge sitting along the Midatlantic Northeast coast early next week, where both models have a trough now (and gfs snow chances). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 At hour 192 the Euro has a SE low in Southern AL. he only problem is there is not any really cold air anywhere in the CONUS at the time. I don't have access to two meter temps but 850's even on the backside of the low are very marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 At hour 192 the Euro has a SE low in Southern AL. he only problem is there is not any really cold air anywhere in the CONUS at the time. I don't have access to two meter temps but 850's even on the backside of the low are very marginal. 2m temps are too warm through the course of the storm. Just has a cold front moving through 2m temps never even get cold enough in the Mountains of NC...unless it does between the 6 hour panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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