Rankin5150 Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Wow...I would like to experience this once-JUST ONCE IN MY LIFE: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=47.33882269482199&lon=-121.46484375&site=afc&unit=0&lg=en Sorry for the OT... I just had to post that link. They are getting HAMMERED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Wow...I would like to experience this once-JUST ONCE IN MY LIFE: http://forecast.weat...fc&unit=0&lg=en Sorry for the OT... I just had to post that link. They are getting HAMMERED. Same here. My parents and granparents still talk about the 24"+ they saw in March 1980 like it was yesterday. I have experiend 12"+ on 1/25/2000, 1/02-03/2002, and 12/26/2010 and was more than happy with those. But seeing something like that would be incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtgus Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I have experiend 12"+ on 1/25/2000, 1/02-03/2002, and 12/26/2010 and was more than happy with those. But seeing something like that would be incredible! "That's what she said!" Michael Scott Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 DROOL! I would love that, too - alas, I believe GA is the WRONG place for that - heck, I have never seen that in 10 years of visiting Michigan (East). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Accuweather's long range guy Paul Pastelok, says maybe Jan. 29-30-31 and second week of Feb a little cooler in the east and maybe stormy? But he likes 1957 analog which he's riding into early spring and it's WARM believe it or not! He don't think cold pattern can lock in? kinda like DT says. We"ll see. Just thought I would pass along another opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Accuweather's long range guy Paul Pastelok, says maybe Jan. 29-30-31 and second week of Feb a little cooler in the east and maybe stormy? But he likes 1957 analog which he's riding into early spring and it's WARM believe it or not! He don't think cold pattern can lock in? kinda like DT says. We"ll see. Just thought I would pass along another opinion. Probably most likely scenario, but if we can get a good 10-14 day pattern to setup where we can get 1 or 2 chances, like 2000/2002, that may be our best chance. When was the last time we had a horrific December/January and February was cold/stormy? I can't recall any.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Probably most likely scenario, but if we can get a good 10-14 day pattern to setup where we can get 1 or 2 chances, like 2000/2002, that may be our best chance. When was the last time we had a horrific December/January and February was cold/stormy? I can't recall any.... I agree but I also don't rule out more sustained cold. I'm not saying you are but just agreeing with your analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 With the amount of snow they have in Alaska ,and the fact it doesn't get warm in summer ,i'd say they will still have a lot of snow on the ground left from this year snow when the winter of 2012-2013 sets in.Amazing Whats the latest on the second stratospheric warming in the north pole?.I've not heard a word on this in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 With the amount of snow they have in Alaska ,and the fact it doesn't get warm in summer ,i'd say they will still have a lot of snow on the ground left from this year snow when the winter of 2012-2013 sets in.Amazing Whats the latest on the second stratospheric warming in the north pole?.I've not heard a word on this in a week. See previous page. Dacula has a graph he posted this morning. Showing promise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 With the amount of snow they have in Alaska ,and the fact it doesn't get warm in summer ,i'd say they will still have a lot of snow on the ground left from this year snow when the winter of 2012-2013 sets in.Amazing Whats the latest on the second stratospheric warming in the north pole?.I've not heard a word on this in a week. via Frank Strait "It has me thinking that the 10-14 day spell of cold that comes in an otherwise mild winter will occur during the first half of February. If it doesn't, then it may be too late to do snow lovers much good." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Wow...I would like to experience this once-JUST ONCE IN MY LIFE: http://forecast.weat...fc&unit=0&lg=en Sorry for the OT... I just had to post that link. They are getting HAMMERED. If these thunderstorms consisted of snow falling to the ground instead of rain, we'd have that. It's January right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 With the amount of snow they have in Alaska ,and the fact it doesn't get warm in summer ,i'd say they will still have a lot of snow on the ground left from this year snow when the winter of 2012-2013 sets in.Amazing Whats the latest on the second stratospheric warming in the north pole?.I've not heard a word on this in a week. Umm, that's just flat out wrong. I have visited Alaska three times in my life: all three times were in the summer, and once was for 3 months long. Central Alaska is one of the worst places to be in summer: it can be in the 70s and 80s and has the worst mosquitoes of anywhere in the world because of all the standing water after snow melt. Anchorage isn't as bad since the proximity to the ocean produces more moderate temperatures and constant sea breezes, but Fairbanks is hellacious. I'm quite sure most of the snow will be able to melt off, save for the mountain peaks where it never melts. Contrary to popular belief, Alaska is not just one big iceberg, and it is one of the most beautiful places in the world, in my opinion, to visit. Edit: My avatar is actually a pic I took in Denali National Park this past summer. You didn't reach snow level until around 7000 ft elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 via Frank Strait "It has me thinking that the 10-14 day spell of cold that comes in an otherwise mild winter will occur during the first half of February. If it doesn't, then it may be too late to do snow lovers much good." I like Frank, and I do think he's a good Meteorologist, but an exact five days before the healthy snow we received February 28th-Mar.1st he said that we wouldn't get snow due to sun angle, time of year. Y'all know what happened with that. He could be right though. He's just comparing to averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I like Frank, and I do think he's a good Meteorologist, but an exact five days before the healthy snow we received February 28th-Mar.1st he said that we wouldn't get snow due to sun angle, time of year. Y'all know what happened with that. He could be right though. He's just comparing to averages. I've noticed Frank focuses a lot on the deep south. I like him as far as accuwx mets go I don't think it's too short sighted to say what he did given this winter. Just like I said with DT it only annoys me when they speak in so many absolutes. That's why I like Wes and Robert. They keep the book open on good and bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I've noticed Frank focuses a lot on the deep south. I like him as far as accuwx mets go I don't think it's too short sighted to say what he did given this winter. Just like I said with DT it only annoys me when they speak in so many absolutes. That's why I like Wes and Robert. They keep the book open on good and bad. I completely agree. The Accumets seem to write their blogs based on what they want to happen(Joe Lundberg) a lot of times, not necessarily what will happen. You get to mid-January and Lundberg is already talking about winter ending and Spring training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Same here. My parents and granparents still talk about the 24"+ they saw in March 1980 like it was yesterday. I have experiend 12"+ on 1/25/2000, 1/02-03/2002, and 12/26/2010 and was more than happy with those. But seeing something like that would be incredible! Living in NH saw a 31" storm in winter '00-'01 had over 145" IMBY that season and coming from SC it was quite the shock, 3 years of ridiculous cold and snow (relative to what I was use to down south) I got my belly full and headed back south. Its was fun for the first year, then a frozen, covered ground for 5 months got old quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 This is an unusual Winter with its heavy Alaskan vortex, can't remember one like this. We're very warm and seem to be getting warmer relative to averages since we're in the heart of Winter now. It goes to show that nature usually works in the extremes , well sometimes does, especially lately. Look at last years 2 month long strong Greenland block and -nao. Or the once in a hundred years droughts in Texas and the heatwaves (2 of the hottest summers on record recently). I think the extreme thing will keep on going until further notice. You can hardly forecast the end of that type of thing on the models. I'll have to double check my records but going by memory for the Southeast the worst winters recently overall were right after 2004, so from around 2005 to early 2009 wasnt' so good for snow or cold lovers in the Southeast. That changed quickly in 2010 and 2011, so who knows if this is an off year. So far its probably warmer and even less wintry (nobody has much snow) even beating out the worst years on record of 2006 or 2007. Only time will tell if we go snowless completely this season, but I'd say the odds are we don't. Not everyone. I'm not sure the models are right at the early part of February, but if they are, it will "probably" be a pattern that changes for atleast 4 to 6 weeks and would be hardcore Winter in our region. That type of switch would fit many of the Winters that had a big switch to them, whether its strat. warming related or whatever. Its' just the timing would be a little unusual. We're used to early Winters with an abrupt end, or practically no Winter (like mid 2000's), but those Winters' didn't behave like this one is at the Poles. Seems like blocking or ridging wants to stay there, so when there is a switch, combined with a super-active pacific jet, it wouldn't suprise me at all to see a Greenland block form and combo +PNA, where we've had -PNA so long. If that happens, we'd see one of the biggest turn arounds in weather in a long time. It probably will happen, the unknown is really when. If its late February, it's really a little too late for most. The mountains could still end up with a banter year, as a blocking situation makes it snow in the higher elevations well into March and early April. There will probably be a couple of ways for much of the Southeast to see sig. snow this season: One will be a Greenland ridge or eastern Canada vortex that supplies surface high and maintains a high over the Lakes or Northeast, while a plains system digs toward the Gulf. Or a cutoff or upper low , similar to 2004 and 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 I am puttiwng $ on the continuous hp pumping cold and a cutoff (drooling)! . EDIT: in response to Foothills last post above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Umm, that's just flat out wrong. I have visited Alaska three times in my life: all three times were in the summer, and once was for 3 months long. Central Alaska is one of the worst places to be in summer: it can be in the 70s and 80s and has the worst mosquitoes of anywhere in the world because of all the standing water after snow melt. Anchorage isn't as bad since the proximity to the ocean produces more moderate temperatures and constant sea breezes, but Fairbanks is hellacious. I'm quite sure most of the snow will be able to melt off, save for the mountain peaks where it never melts. Contrary to popular belief, Alaska is not just one big iceberg, and it is one of the most beautiful places in the world, in my opinion, to visit. Edit: My avatar is actually a pic I took in Denali National Park this past summer. You didn't reach snow level until around 7000 ft elevation. I have always liked that word, "Denali". NIce to say, nice to read, nice to hear! I hope it doesn't mean "squeeze the bubo", or something equally unpleasant, lol. Glad to see goofy giving rain still, but the amounts are getting smaller with each run. Now looks to measure in a few tenths at a time until the end of crazyland. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Brad Panovich not bullish on Charlotte February Snow: @wxbrad: @JimCantore @corbers not at all we might have our first snowless winter in CLT in 133 yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJJAckson Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I have always liked that word, "Denali". NIce to say, nice to read, nice to hear! I hope it doesn't mean "squeeze the bubo", or something equally unpleasant, lol. Glad to see goofy giving rain still, but the amounts are getting smaller with each run. Now looks to measure in a few tenths at a time until the end of crazyland. T Denali means "high one" in Athabaskan. All Alaskans prefer calling the mountain Denali over Mt. McKinley -- at least that has been my experience. I can also attest that Fairbanks is hell in the summer. Not the city proper, so much...but the surrounding countryside. They don't call the mosquito the Alaska state bird for nothing. It can get very warm in the summer in interior Alaska...although I've seen it snow there as late as July in the hills that surround Fairbanks. Beautiful country. Absolutely pristine. And the smell is very distinct. Not unpleasant or anything. I call it Alaska fresh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 No, I have access to the Euro ensembles to day 16 The Alaska vortex weakens significantly in the 11-15 day period and an eastern -NAO and +PNA sets up but not in an impressive way. There is not a whole lot of cold air on our side of the hemisphere by this time so the Euro weeklies look of more seasonal temperatures fits...Not much there to drive real cold our way yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 What did gfs say? Is it trying to make us cliff dive or keep us holding on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 What did gfs say? Is it trying to make us cliff dive or keep us holding on? Operational is not good...You will have to wait for the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Operational is not good...You will have to wait for the ensembles. How bad is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 How bad is it? Same as the previous runs, anything over 10 days (really 7 days) the ensembles are more important. We need things to get inside 10 days on both GFS/Euro Op/ENS, which probably won't come for another week or so, if at all. I will be curious to see what the weeklies show on Thursday for the next 4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Same as the previous runs, anything over 10 days (really 7 days) the ensembles are more important. We need things to get inside 10 days on both GFS/Euro Op/ENS, which probably won't come for another week or so, if at all. I will be curious to see what the weeklies show on Thursday for the next 4 weeks. Meaning: No Snow, Warm Winter, Get Use to it! Not Cliff diving here, more of a realist. It is the way this winter is panning out. But hey at least I wore Shorts, T-Shirt, and Sandals today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Denali means "high one" in Athabaskan. All Alaskans prefer calling the mountain Denali over Mt. McKinley -- at least that has been my experience. I can also attest that Fairbanks is hell in the summer. Not the city proper, so much...but the surrounding countryside. They don't call the mosquito the Alaska state bird for nothing. It can get very warm in the summer in interior Alaska...although I've seen it snow there as late as July in the hills that surround Fairbanks. Beautiful country. Absolutely pristine. And the smell is very distinct. Not unpleasant or anything. I call it Alaska fresh. Thank you! That's good to know. Nice meaning too. Everybody I know that's been to Alaska loved it. Now, if they'd just let go of some of their cold weather Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Denali NP is one of my fave spots on the planet- the wildlife there is amazing. it is not called "the Serengeti of North America" for nothing.... Back to the subject at hand- the Euro looks warm- at 240 some weak high latitude blocking signs, but this would only affect the NE probably unless it ends up much stronger. The Pacific is still not good. Only bright spot- plenty of rain chances.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Folks, I continue to like what I'm seeing out about two weeks. The latest GFS ensemble mean (6z) has most of the ducks where you'd want them by late in week #2 suggesting a -NAO, -AO, and +PNA. In addition, the 0Z Euro ensemble mean has virtually a 180 degree reversal on the 360 hour map vs. the 6 hour map with strong warm anom's over Greenland to NE Canada and into the N. Atlantic as well as near and just offshore the W US and cold anomalies over W. Europe and E. Asia. There are slight cold anom.'s over far NW Canada and into AK but they are then diminishing. Keeping hope very much alive for a rockin' Feb. in the SE US although accepting whatever actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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